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Caleb Smith 2019 Outlook


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29 minutes ago, mehtavg2000 said:

Is he definitely going to be on an innings limit?  That’s the only thing that worries me.  He’s on a crap team so they pull the plug just in time for fantasy playoffs.

I don't think anyone has the answer for that...as long as he's pitching well...which is basically what he prob will do moving forward, then you just go with it...

He's older, so I don't think it would be a hard limit or anything. Just stay healthy Caleb and keep rolling...a few of us have believed from the start of last year!

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Nobody should worry about an innings limit because it's so far away and you got him for free.  Not many pitchers go 180 plus any more, it's an absolute non concern for a guy you got free. I think if you're trading him at a discount in a redraft h2h because he might not pitch for you in the playoffs you're getting too cute. If you can sell him for a good bat that you need, sure, but I wouldn't sell low. 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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7 hours ago, Hatfieldodger said:

what if you also had Nola start them both? 

 

Logic doesn't make sense to sit based on the opposing pitcher, unless you're in a league that counts losses, I guess.

 

I started both and am happier than a pig in S.

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29 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

Logic doesn't make sense to sit based on the opposing pitcher, unless you're in a league that counts losses, I guess.

 

I started both and am happier than a pig in S.

 

I’m just unhappy neither gets a win. Lol. 

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He’s throwing his changeup 10% more this year and it’s already the 7th best rated in baseball.  Getting a ton of whiffs and weak contact.  He’s fully grasped the third pitch.  If that trend continues you have a full on top 15-20 SP breakout in progress.  Buy buy buy.

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11 hours ago, herschel said:

i havent started him once yet this year (been scared by matchups or have had better options) but have him in there next week vs cle.  be forewarned....

 

I’m in the exact same situation. I also have been scared by matchups and I have some other good options. 

This week before lineups locked I considered starting him but was worried he was facing a good Phillies lineup for the second time this year. I thought the Phils May adjust. 

He’s pretty much a must start at this point until he shows otherwise.

Smith can be a top 20ish pitcher but if he was on a good team he would be a stud. He did win his last 2 starts so hopefully he can get some run support and win some games going forward. 

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9 hours ago, UberRebel said:

What's a good player comparison for him?

 

I will probably get flak for this but his arm slot reminds me a lot of Liriano back in the day. 

Liriano had the meh fast ball but he had the same changeup/slider combo. Both had the fastball sit 93-94. 

I think Caleb’s fastball gets more whiffs but I haven’t dug into the data at all. 

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43 minutes ago, Smallball said:

 

I will probably get flak for this but his arm slot reminds me a lot of Liriano back in the day. 

Liriano had the meh fast ball but he had the same changeup/slider combo. Both had the fastball sit 93-94. 

I think Caleb’s fastball gets more whiffs but I haven’t dug into the data at all. 

Comps are difficult, I can see a bit of what your saying though. I was gonna reply with Cliff Lee last night, but thought better of it (as I was 3 glasses of vino in)...but it that also actually works too imo. FB movement, arm slot and later career emergence...

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He pitched well this season against the Mets, Atlanta, Philadephia (twice) and Washington. Those are the 8, 9, 11, 12th ranked offenses in baseball. I think we can feel pretty confident with him going up against just about anybody at this point.

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12 hours ago, 89Topps said:

 

Logic doesn't make sense to sit based on the opposing pitcher, unless you're in a league that counts losses, I guess.

 

I started both and am happier than a pig in S.

W & L are counted in my league. I guess it worked out about as good as it could though. Caleb is a great SP on a crap team. I don't expect top 20 stats due to his low win/loss #'s but he is a top 20 in QS leagues.

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21 minutes ago, Hatfieldodger said:

W & L are counted in my league. I guess it worked out about as good as it could though. Caleb is a great SP on a crap team. I don't expect top 20 stats due to his low win/loss #'s but he is a top 20 in QS leagues.

Ranked #13 overall (#7 Pitcher!) in my league that counts both wins and QS. Wins aren't everything, he's been amazing giving elite ks/era/whip so far. 

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3 hours ago, Smallball said:

 

I will probably get flak for this but his arm slot reminds me a lot of Liriano back in the day. 

Liriano had the meh fast ball but he had the same changeup/slider combo. Both had the fastball sit 93-94. 

I think Caleb’s fastball gets more whiffs but I haven’t dug into the data at all. 

Good comparison.

LIriano in his prime before TJS fastball was around 97, after the surgery 93/94 range.

Maybe you're speaking of after TJS? Not sure.

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3 hours ago, Smallball said:

 

I will probably get flak for this but his arm slot reminds me a lot of Liriano back in the day. 

Liriano had the meh fast ball but he had the same changeup/slider combo. Both had the fastball sit 93-94. 

I think Caleb’s fastball gets more whiffs but I haven’t dug into the data at all. 

It's been a while, and I've gotten more into fantasy baseball every year since I fist start a long time ago. I feel like a big issue with Liriano (from what I read and heard on podcasts back in the day from analysts) was he was mentally weak, not the skills. So if he's Liriano with a good head on his shoulders, I don't take that as a knock at all. 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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