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Caleb Smith 2019 Outlook


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3 hours ago, lassetjus said:

He pitched well this season against the Mets, Atlanta, Philadephia (twice) and Washington. Those are the 8, 9, 11, 12th ranked offenses in baseball. I think we can feel pretty confident with him going up against just about anybody at this point.

 

Plus he doesn't have the downside of facing a potential trap game vs Miami (a la Scherzer) 😃!

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5 minutes ago, B&F said:

As much as aI love this guy he is in a brutal division.

 

Is he? Mets very LH heavy probably will have some sharp platoon splits this year... are the nationals that much better than the second best offense in most other divisions? He misses cupcakes by virtue of being on a last place team. But otherwise I don’t think it’s that bad. 

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33 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Is he? Mets very LH heavy probably will have some sharp platoon splits this year... are the nationals that much better than the second best offense in most other divisions? He misses cupcakes by virtue of being on a last place team. But otherwise I don’t think it’s that bad. 

A lot of big sticks in division are left handed.  Freeman, Conforto, Cano, McNeil, Soto, Harper, Markakis etc.  The most RH neutralizing lineup would probably be Philly who can toss out McCutchen, Segura, Hoskins, Realmuto, Franco.  And he’s gone through Philly twice already with little hiccups.  

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I've been trying to think of a comp all day. Usually I can do comps pretty well but I'm blanking pretty hard. Good lefty velo. Slider+Change. Slider+Change probably the two best pitches. Change probably the best. 

 

I do like the Liriano comp thrown out. I think it makes a good deal of sense. He looks similarly nasty when he's on. He's been on all year. 

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2 hours ago, taobball said:

I've been trying to think of a comp all day. Usually I can do comps pretty well but I'm blanking pretty hard. Good lefty velo. Slider+Change. Slider+Change probably the two best pitches. Change probably the best. 

 

I do like the Liriano comp thrown out. I think it makes a good deal of sense. He looks similarly nasty when he's on. He's been on all year. 

obviously Koufax.  I'm thinking he can put up numbers similiar to Sandy's 1965 season ...

26 Wins, 2.04 ERA in 335 IP, 0.86 WHIP, 27 CGs with 8 SH, 382 Ks ... oh and he had 2 Saves

Caleb just needs to stay healthy!

 

 

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4 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

A lot of big sticks in division are left handed.  Freeman, Conforto, Cano, McNeil, Soto, Harper, Markakis etc.  The most RH neutralizing lineup would probably be Philly who can toss out McCutchen, Segura, Hoskins, Realmuto, Franco.  And he’s gone through Philly twice already with little hiccups.  

 

Weirdly enough, Caleb has struggled more against LHB than RHB for the last 2 seasons, granted the sample size is pretty small for this year.

 

2019

vs. LHB (23 AB) – .217/.333/.391

vs. RHB (79 AB) – .152/.183/.291

 

2018

vs. LHB (87 AB) – .287/.326/.391

vs. RHB (199 AB) – .191/.297/.387

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10 hours ago, Z06vette said:

Good comparison.

LIriano in his prime before TJS fastball was around 97, after the surgery 93/94 range.

Maybe you're speaking of after TJS? Not sure.

 

Definitely post TJS.

That first year of Liriano with the high 90’s fast ball with late movement was crazy.

I remember it felt like the second coming of Johan.  

Not exactly stuff wise but a lefty who kept guys tripping over them selves and looked like he could be a Cy Young guy. 

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On 4/25/2019 at 11:33 PM, sleepysock said:

Going forward I think he has to be considered top 20 must-start, especially when you look at how a lot of the preseason top 30 guys are struggling so far. 

 

Totally agree.  I think Smith is the most underrated pitcher in fantasy baseball.  I know the team context isn't ideal.  I'm hoping he'll be average in wins (say 10-12 wins), but even if he's a liability in wins, I can tolerate that if he's going to continue to be a stud in the other 3 categories.

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On 4/25/2019 at 9:12 PM, Del Rio said:

Top 20 SP

 

Caleb Smith is such a stud.  I loved him in the preseason and drafted him in all my leagues, but I'm starting to think I may have underestimated his ceiling.  With how much a lot of the big name starters are struggling this year, I actually think it's possible Smith finishes the year as a top 10 starter now, even though the wins might not be great on the Marlins (although the wins are just fine so far).

I can tell you if someone offered me Sale, Nola, or Thor for Smith, I'd tell them to take a hike at this point.

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Just now, FootballFan101 said:

 

Caleb Smith is such a stud.  I loved him in the preseason and drafted him in all my leagues, but I'm starting to think I may have underestimated his ceiling.  With how much a lot of the big name starters are struggling this year, I actually think it's possible Smith finishes the year as a top 10 starter now, even though the wins might not be great on the Marlins (although the wins are just fine so far).

I can tell you if someone offered me Sale, Nola, or Thor for Smith, I'd tell them to take a hike at this point.

 

Yup, once I saw his k/bb in spring training, I was fully on board.

Figured I could get away with not drafting him since it was 10 teamer, but he was my first pick up before the season started once guys were placed on the IL.

ERA down to 2.00

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My new pitching man crush(replacing Nola). With a fantasy staff to start the season of deGrom-Nola-Syndergaard, Who knew my post draft pickup of Caleb would make those 3 look bad? I streamed caleb some last year till he got injured and we are now seeing what he is capable of if he eliminated the walks. top 20 SP ROS imo(Im a lil conservative I know). Im in a quality starts league which makes it better. Enjoy the ride fellas! This is looking like gold

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Edited by Diezl528
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He’s quietly having a very solid season so far. 

His ERA is 2.00 and his WHIP is .90

6 starts (3-0) - 36 innings pitched with 45 Ks and 9 BB. 

he’s only given up more then 2 runs once (3 runs that game). 

 

Cool Story Bro but I came so so close to dropping Caleb for Touki or Strahm before the season started. 

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I had him last year and he did well before he got injured! I picked him up on waiver wire before season cause his spring training stats were impressive! I was not expecting he would be this good so far into the season! I have to say perhaps jeter might have gotten the better end of that Giancarlo trade

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