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Justin Upton 2019 Outlook


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Mr. Consistency year in and year out has yet to play a ST game yet due to his knee. I'm shying away right now. Anyone have faith in this guy? I mean what are we looking at here? .260  30   85/85 with 8 SBs (and that's him healthy and playing full-time), that's not getting me excited, especially if he's being taken in the 90-100 overall range

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You can never expect a player to be a Trout, regardless of if they are a first overall pick. Upton has been a lot more successful that the majority of number one picks. 

overreaction central

Must have asked his brother for advice, then done the opposite.

9 hours ago, StevieStats said:

Consistency year to year but rollercoaster month to month. He's a do not draft for me in H2H but a undervalued target in Roto.

I'm not concerned about the knee.

 

This 100%. He’s a major headache in H2H. He’ll win you some weeks with 4 HR 8-10 RBI type weeks then go on month long slumps where he hits .150 with practically no counting stats. At the end of the season his stats are there though so he’s a better roto player. 

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2 hours ago, BostonCajun said:

 

This 100%. He’s a major headache in H2H. He’ll win you some weeks with 4 HR 8-10 RBI type weeks then go on month long slumps where he hits .150 with practically no counting stats. At the end of the season his stats are there though so he’s a better roto player. 

 

It all evens out in the end, even in H2H. If he helps you win one week and lose the next, you're pretty much equal by the season's end. The whole Roto/H2H difference is extremely overblown on these boards.

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44 minutes ago, Roto4500 said:

 

It all evens out in the end, even in H2H. If he helps you win one week and lose the next, you're pretty much equal by the season's end. The whole Roto/H2H difference is extremely overblown on these boards.

 

A streaky player in roto does even out in the end by definition of the cumulative stats as a whole. However, to say the same for H2H formats by saying he helps you win one then helps you lose one is simply false.

 

Here's an example. If Upton goes on a 3 week stretch where he's a top 20 asset he is likely helping your team win those matchups but it's no guarantee. During that streak he's only bringing a certain level of production in terms of numbers above what his average numbers are. However, when he is in a 3 week long slump where he's not even a top 250 asset the discrepancy in production from his average is far greater and therefore hurts your team more than he helps you during his hot streaks. The same applies for any player who goes through prolonged slumps in H2H leagues. 

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1 hour ago, Roto4500 said:

It all evens out in the end, even in H2H. If he helps you win one week and lose the next, you're pretty much equal by the season's end. The whole Roto/H2H difference is extremely overblown on these boards.

No you have to babysit him daily and while in one of his deep slumps you sit him.  Especially in H2H One Win formats.  You just can't let things even out there.  You have to win every week.

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[We're pretty far afield from Upton's fantasy outlook with this tangent about how "streakiness" affects a player's value in particular formats.  If y'all want to continue that conversation, it needs to occur elsewhere, either in a new topic for that purpose, or perhaps here.]

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8 hours ago, Roto4500 said:

 

It all evens out in the end, even in H2H. If he helps you win one week and lose the next, you're pretty much equal by the season's end. The whole Roto/H2H difference is extremely overblown on these boards.

The reason I bring it up for Upton is because he is an extreme case. Baseball Forecaster tracks Dom% and Dis% - Dominance and Disaster. This is based off of how many weeks a player's BPV was 50+ (Dom) or under 0 (Dis). BPV is a metric that essentially values a player's overall skill set.

In Upton's case over the 26 weeks he played, 42% were disaster, 31% were dominant, leaving 27% in between. That is an enormously high disaster rate, which speaks to his volatility. Also, with a 31/42 Dom/Dis split, he is not winning you as many weeks as he will lose you. To put this in perspective a guy like Rhys Hoskins is considered streaky and he provides 54% Dom and 32% Dis. A consistent player with similar value to Upton would be Michael Brantley, he returned 74% Dom, 11% Dis - extremely consistent.

So in Upton's case, I would say his 31 Dom/42 Dis is extremely noteworthy for H2H leagues.

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I think I'm moving on in all formats unless he comes really cheap and I can plop him on my bench (3 OF leagues).

 

I mean if you have the guts to stick him in your lineup (roto) and leave him there literally all year. Solid OF3 in 12 teamers. Again roto.

 

He'll drive you nuts especially in weekly leagues. He's the type who you put in the lineup for great matchups and he goes 1-25. Take him out and then he goes 10-25 with 5 HR's on your bench. Put him back in and 1-25 again. :D

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On ‎3‎/‎14‎/‎2019 at 7:49 PM, Members_Only_76 said:

I think I'm moving on in all formats unless he comes really cheap and I can plop him on my bench (3 OF leagues).

 

I mean if you have the guts to stick him in your lineup (roto) and leave him there literally all year. Solid OF3 in 12 teamers. Again roto.

 

He'll drive you nuts especially in weekly leagues. He's the type who you put in the lineup for great matchups and he goes 1-25. Take him out and then he goes 10-25 with 5 HR's on your bench. Put him back in and 1-25 again. :D

 

This is exactly the reason why chasing a 'hot streak' is so dumb. Of course you don't take him out of your lineup based on a 25 AB sample size. If you're taking him out after 5-6 bad games and benching him, you don't understand fantasy baseball (or small sample sizes).

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On ‎3‎/‎14‎/‎2019 at 7:45 PM, StevieStats said:

The reason I bring it up for Upton is because he is an extreme case. Baseball Forecaster tracks Dom% and Dis% - Dominance and Disaster. This is based off of how many weeks a player's BPV was 50+ (Dom) or under 0 (Dis). BPV is a metric that essentially values a player's overall skill set.

In Upton's case over the 26 weeks he played, 42% were disaster, 31% were dominant, leaving 27% in between. That is an enormously high disaster rate, which speaks to his volatility. Also, with a 31/42 Dom/Dis split, he is not winning you as many weeks as he will lose you. To put this in perspective a guy like Rhys Hoskins is considered streaky and he provides 54% Dom and 32% Dis. A consistent player with similar value to Upton would be Michael Brantley, he returned 74% Dom, 11% Dis - extremely consistent.

So in Upton's case, I would say his 31 Dom/42 Dis is extremely noteworthy for H2H leagues.

 

Your data is correct. How you're using it is completely wrong.

Upton isn't the only player in your lineup. His 'disaster' stretches will inevitably line up with other players' "dominant" stretches. It all evens out over a full season.

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Diagnosed with turf toe.  How long do turf toe injuries normally take before you are back in the lineup?

Definitely frustrating that for the 2nd year in a row in my money league I've lost an early round player to an injury at the end of spring training the day after my draft (Bumgarner last year).  Upton's historically been very durable (150 games 9 years in a row), but I'm simply cursed

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Bad start for Upton's '19 season. I've drafted this dude many times in the past simply because he was a "solid" bat. He's never won anyone a league - he's a big-picture cog in the machine type guy. 

he was in my draft plans this year but was taken way earlier than when I'd even consider taking him. 

This dude is a legit career bust compared to what he could have been. As I said  - drafted many times so I was WAS a fanboy. 

He just doesn't quite have the juice to truly break out and now the hands of time are his enemy.

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14 minutes ago, SuperJoint said:

Bad start for Upton's '19 season. I've drafted this dude many times in the past simply because he was a "solid" bat. He's never won anyone a league - he's a big-picture cog in the machine type guy. 

he was in my draft plans this year but was taken way earlier than when I'd even consider taking him. 

This dude is a legit career bust compared to what he could have been. As I said  - drafted many times so I was WAS a fanboy. 

He just doesn't quite have the juice to truly break out and now the hands of time are his enemy.

 

Man, tough crowd.  I get what you're saying, but pretty tough to call a guy with 37 career fWAR at age 31 a bust.

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