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Justin Upton 2019 Outlook


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10 hours ago, 89Topps said:

 

Man, tough crowd.  I get what you're saying, but pretty tough to call a guy with 37 career fWAR at age 31 a bust.

Definitely not a career "bust", but JUp was supposed to be Trout before there was a Trout, and Trout has 2x his career WAR despite being 4 years younger. "Bust" is harsh but he never lived up to the hype.

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You can never expect a player to be a Trout, regardless of if they are a first overall pick. Upton has been a lot more successful that the majority of number one picks. 

overreaction central

Must have asked his brother for advice, then done the opposite.

13 minutes ago, smeeze said:

Definitely not a career "bust", but JUp was supposed to be Trout before there was a Trout, and Trout has 2x his career WAR despite being 4 years younger. "Bust" is harsh but he never lived up to the hype.

You can never expect a player to be a Trout, regardless of if they are a first overall pick.

Upton has been a lot more successful that the majority of number one picks. 

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14 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

Diagnosed with turf toe.  How long do turf toe injuries normally take before you are back in the lineup?

Definitely frustrating that for the 2nd year in a row in my money league I've lost an early round player to an injury at the end of spring training the day after my draft (Bumgarner last year).  Upton's historically been very durable (150 games 9 years in a row), but I'm simply cursed

Depends, many guys play through it, but it will affect performance. 

I just checked which toe it was and thank God it is his left toe. As a RH bat, if it were his back foot that would have been devastating. So seeing this is his front foot, it will still impact just not as bad. 

Turf toe is essentially hyperextending your big toe joint.

I think MRI/testing will determine just how severe the injury is,  I'm guessing is worse than grade 1 considering him being ruled out already... He's probably grade 2 or 3, and I'm thinking they must be waiting for swelling to subside to be positive if he chipped a bone or something. Hopefully its grade 2, he rests a week or two and good to go. Worst case is grade 3 with tear/break and he's out a month+... 

My concern moving forward is if this lingers.

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1 hour ago, hangin n wangin said:

You can never expect a player to be a Trout, regardless of if they are a first overall pick.

Upton has been a lot more successful that the majority of number one picks. 

 

Trout is a generational talent.  One that will likely go down as one of the all-time greats.  You can't expect that with every first overall pick.  Upton has performed exactly as a first overall pick should perform.  He's been All-Star calibur and consistent in his production.  Asking more than that is just silly. 

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2 minutes ago, cizastro said:

 

Trout is a generational talent.  One that will likely go down as one of the all-time greats.  You can't expect that with every first overall pick.  Upton has performed exactly as a first overall pick should perform.  He's been All-Star calibur and consistent in his production.  Asking more than that is just silly. 

Yep. 100 percent agree. Any organization would be thrilled with the career production from Upton as a number one pick. Many number one picks don’t come close to that career production.

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sonofab, out 8 to 12 weeks with a booboo on his toe

Angels manager Brad Ausmus announced Friday that outfielder Justin Upton (toe) is expected to be sidelined for 8-12 weeks.

Ouch. That's a crushing blow to fantasy owners that invested in the dynamic outfielder. Ausmus didn't indicate exactly what had changed in the diagnosis of turf toe, other than to say that Upton received further evaluation from a doctor. You'd have to think that the Angels may explore outfield options from outside the organization, rather than rolling with a combination of Peter Bourjos and Brian Goodwin in left field for the first two or three months of the season.

Mar 29, 2019, 8:20 PM
 
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On 3/26/2019 at 11:17 PM, 89Topps said:

 

Man, tough crowd.  I get what you're saying, but pretty tough to call a guy with 37 career fWAR at age 31 a bust.

 

Well, he's a certainly a bust this year.  Missing 8-12 weeks for a guy that went inside the top 75 = gigantic bust

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bummer news no matter how u look at it. At least I have 3 DL spots to juggle all my crips. I certainly hope he is more on the 8 week side AKA June instead of the 12 week timeframe AKA July. I trust modern medicine so I think he is a hold for now in most formats.

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5 minutes ago, hailfire4 said:

bummer news no matter how u look at it. At least I have 3 DL spots to juggle all my crips. I certainly hope he is more on the 8 week side AKA June instead of the 12 week timeframe AKA July. I trust modern medicine so I think he is a hold for now in most formats.

 

Even after his toe is better, he still is going to have to go through ramping up baseball activities (taking batting practice, running the bases, etc) and then play in probably at least 2 weeks of rehab games to give his timing back.  Even in the best-case scenario, I don't think he's returning before the All Star break.  Just like last year, they said 6-8 weeks for MadBum's injury, but it was mid-June before he was actually back on a major league baseball field.

What makes this so frustrating is that Upton had zero injury history and that this seems to happen to me every year in my money league.

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1 hour ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

Well, he's a certainly a bust this year.  Missing 8-12 weeks for a guy that went inside the top 75 = gigantic bust

 

I mean, if you can stay competitive until his return he can help you out in the stretch run, but it's definitely frustrating to lose an early pick this soon into the season.

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2 hours ago, phillyphan21 said:

 

I mean, if you can stay competitive until his return he can help you out in the stretch run, but it's definitely frustrating to lose an early pick this soon into the season.

 

That's easier said than done in a money league where all 12 managers are super active and competitive.  When you have an early round pick miss at least half the season, you're giving the other 11 managers a significant edge over you, and the odds of all 11 of these good managers not being able to take advantage of that edge over you is pretty slim.

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1 hour ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

That's easier said than done in a money league where all 12 managers are super active and competitive.  When you have an early round pick miss at least half the season, you're giving the other 11 managers a significant edge over you, and the odds of all 11 of these good managers not being able to take advantage of that edge over you is pretty slim.

That is all true, but really besides the point imo.  Everyone gets hit with serious injuries unless they are really fortunate.  Kershaw has killed owners the past 3 years for ex.  Even Trout has missed some time the past couple of years.  Losing Upton is just bad luck and you need some good luck to win most competitive leagues.  Leagues are rarely won in the draft, they are usually won with a combination of luck and good wire\free agent pickups.

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2 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

That's easier said than done in a money league where all 12 managers are super active and competitive.  When you have an early round pick miss at least half the season, you're giving the other 11 managers a significant edge over you, and the odds of all 11 of these good managers not being able to take advantage of that edge over you is pretty slim.

 

Virtually everyone deals with injuries. The managers with the most depth who played the wire the best win. 

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3 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

That's easier said than done in a money league where all 12 managers are super active and competitive.  When you have an early round pick miss at least half the season, you're giving the other 11 managers a significant edge over you, and the odds of all 11 of these good managers not being able to take advantage of that edge over you is pretty slim.

In just a 12 team league it is no big deal to find a replacement plenty easily from the free agent pool.  And he isn't a miss. He is on the IL and will be back. 

Other players for you and other managers will be on the IL too.  It just isn't Upton alone tha twill go down.  It is just part of the game.  I mean is the owner of Lindor tearing his hair out now?  He shouldn't because SS is the deepest position in baseball right now perhaps. 

And you build your team with interchangeable components as well so you are ready for things like this.  You adapt and in so doing you win.  Whether it was building your team properly from the start for these things or just plain steaming the hottest OF bat out there; in just a 12 team league recovery should be pretty easy.

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On 3/30/2019 at 1:55 PM, The Big Bat Theory said:

In just a 12 team league it is no big deal to find a replacement plenty easily from the free agent pool.  And he isn't a miss. He is on the IL and will be back. 

Other players for you and other managers will be on the IL too.  It just isn't Upton alone tha twill go down.  It is just part of the game.  I mean is the owner of Lindor tearing his hair out now?  He shouldn't because SS is the deepest position in baseball right now perhaps. 

And you build your team with interchangeable components as well so you are ready for things like this.  You adapt and in so doing you win.  Whether it was building your team properly from the start for these things or just plain steaming the hottest OF bat out there; in just a 12 team league recovery should be pretty easy.

 

It's definitely NOT easy to find a replacement of Upton's caliber.  Each team has 33 roster spots and the highest % owned OF available on my waiver wire is Asivail Garcia (6%).  Going to be massive dropoff when you lose sometime like Upton who is at least a top 100 player every year.

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  • 1 month later...

Time to get this thread moving. As of last week he was said to be running on a treadmill. There's a chance he makes it back by the end of May/early June which makes him a solid stash in leagues where he's been dropped. Should have lots of RBI opportunities hitting behind Trout and Ohtani. 

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  • 1 month later...

Jup has made significant mechanical adjustments to his swing. 

He no longer is wrapping the bat around his head, it's more vertical.   

He's also a bit lower on his back knee.

Finally,  his hands load lower than they have in the past.   

Long story short, he's shortened up his swing. 

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6 hours ago, 96mnc said:

Jup has made significant mechanical adjustments to his swing. 

He no longer is wrapping the bat around his head, it's more vertical.   

He's also a bit lower on his back knee.

Finally,  his hands load lower than they have in the past.   

Long story short, he's shortened up his swing. 

 

I noticed yesterday that his swing looks way more compact than I recalled. It looked good. 

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6 hours ago, 96mnc said:

Jup has made significant mechanical adjustments to his swing. 

He no longer is wrapping the bat around his head, it's more vertical.   

He's also a bit lower on his back knee.

Finally,  his hands load lower than they have in the past.   

Long story short, he's shortened up his swing. 

Must have asked his brother for advice, then done the opposite.

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