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Duke Johnson 2019 Outlook


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I flipped him the bird before I cut him. That count?

Season can’t start soon enuf. Seems like every 3 pages the discussion starts over with this type of comment. Rinse. Repeat. Start over. 

A possible projection for Duke... --In 2018, Miller had 210 carries over 14 games (15 carries per game). --Backup Alfred Blue (nobody's idea of a solid NFL RB) had 150 carries. He had 24 in the tw

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1 hour ago, Sonny_D said:

I never said I liked O’Brien. All I’m saying is this team isn’t run nearly as bad as Cleveland has been. O’Brien still got Lamar to finish as RB21 in standard last year in just 14 games. The premise of my argument is that IF the Texans don’t sign another RB, I think Duke can finish as a RB2 this year. And yes, I feel a lot better about Duke running for O’Brien as a lead back rather than Hue. And it isn’t even close. 

 

In 2018, the Texans had one of the easiest schedules in the league.  In 2019, they'll have one of the toughest.  

I think the Duke hype assumes too much.  It assumes full health (despite already tweaking his hamstring).  It assumes he'll be able to maintain his efficiency in a much-expanded role.  It assumes that he'll learn the Texans' offense in less than a month.  It assumes that Deshaun Watson will be willing to consistently check down to Duke.  It also assumes that the Texans' WR's will stay healthy enough to open up the passing game.  Will Fuller has missed a lot of games in his career, and Coutee is already hurt.

I think he'll be a RB3 this year.

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All sorts of posts today and I'm busy at work but add this to my post earlier about his size. Duke is the 11th highest paid RB, they also traded a 4th which could turn into a 3rd so they believe in him. Let's go to the all time leading rusher at the U.

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1 minute ago, wekko368 said:

 

In 2018, the Texans had one of the easiest schedules in the league.  In 2019, they'll have one of the toughest.  

I think the Duke hype assumes too much.  It assumes full health (despite already tweaking his hamstring).  It assumes he'll be able to maintain his efficiency in a much-expanded role.  It assumes that he'll learn the Texans' offense in less than a month.  It assumes that Deshaun Watson will be willing to consistently check down to Duke.  It also assumes that the Texans' WR's will stay healthy enough to open up the passing game.  Will Fuller has missed a lot of games in his career, and Coutee is already hurt.

I think he'll be a RB3 this year.

It doesn't assume that he'll maintain his efficiency (at least not from my end). As posted on Sunday...

In this possible projection, I had Duke's efficiency dropping across the board, with him getting 175 carries and 60 catches. 
Perhaps some people think 175 carries is unrealistic for Duke. But Houston lost literally 100% of their RB carries from 2018. 
Houston RB's had 367 carries in 2018 (Miller 210, Blue 150, Foreman 7). So 100% of their RB carries are up for grabs.
175 (Duke's projection) of 367 carries would be 47.7% of Houston's 2018 total.
367 was actually the lowest RB total during Bill O'Brien's total. They had 424 RB carries in 2015, 416 in 2016, and 396 in 2017.
Even if the total drops in 2019, there are still 100% of RB carries available.
Just because 100% of RB carries are available, doesn't mean they will all go to Duke. But I'm not projecting that at all. 47.7% is less than 100%.
Houston probably will sign (or trade for) another RB. And that RB will get some of Houston's carries. 
But if Duke can get to the touch totals I've mentioned, he can succeed for you even with less efficiency. 

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11 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

If I am not mistaken wasn’t Duke drafted in that area in 2018 & ‘17 ... 

In 2017 PPR drafts, Duke's ADP was the 38th RB (pick 8.10). He finished as the #11 RB.
In 2018 PPR drafts, Duke's ADP was the 39th RB (pick 8.10). He finished as the #37 RB.

Along those lines, these are all four of Duke's final finishes amongst RB's...
--2015: #23 RB
--2016: #30 RB
--2017: #11 RB
--2018: #37 RB

So he's had an RB1 and RB2 finish, in seasons in which he had just 82 carries (the RB1 finish) and 104 carries (the RB2 finish). 

Edited by Corleone
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12 minutes ago, Corleone said:

In 2017 PPR drafts, Duke's ADP was the 38th RB (pick 8.10). He finished as the #11 RB.
In 2018 PPR drafts, Duke's ADP was the 39th RB (pick 8.10). He finished as the #37 RB.

Along those lines, these are all four of Duke's final finishes amongst RB's...
--2015: #23 RB
--2016: #30 RB
--2017: #11 RB
--2018: #37 RB

So he's had an RB1 and RB2 finish, in seasons in which he had just 82 carries (the RB1 finish) and 104 carries (the RB2 finish). 

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1 minute ago, Corleone said:

I just found that .., 2018 .. 

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/ppr/12-team/all/2018

 

Draft —- best 6.06 worst 10.05 

The reason I asked because I looked back at two leagues .. Duke was drafted 6.04 & 5.11. I drafted him at 6.04 

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4 hours ago, Corleone said:

It doesn't assume that he'll maintain his efficiency (at least not from my end). As posted on Sunday...

In this possible projection, I had Duke's efficiency dropping across the board, with him getting 175 carries and 60 catches. 
Perhaps some people think 175 carries is unrealistic for Duke. But Houston lost literally 100% of their RB carries from 2018. 
Houston RB's had 367 carries in 2018 (Miller 210, Blue 150, Foreman 7). So 100% of their RB carries are up for grabs.
175 (Duke's projection) of 367 carries would be 47.7% of Houston's 2018 total.
367 was actually the lowest RB total during Bill O'Brien's total. They had 424 RB carries in 2015, 416 in 2016, and 396 in 2017.
Even if the total drops in 2019, there are still 100% of RB carries available.
Just because 100% of RB carries are available, doesn't mean they will all go to Duke. But I'm not projecting that at all. 47.7% is less than 100%.
Houston probably will sign (or trade for) another RB. And that RB will get some of Houston's carries. 
But if Duke can get to the touch totals I've mentioned, he can succeed for you even with less efficiency. 

He's getting more than half their RB carries. It's insane to believe otherwise. And Watson will be checking down, make no mistake. I'd be more worried about can he handle that workload.

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Lots of the talk in this thread has mentioned 6th round as a possible pick for Duke. Some think that's a good spot and would even select him with a better pick. And some don't think Duke is worth it in the 6th. Out of curiosity, I looked at the 6th round picks from an actual PPR draft last year (my own). I also listed each guy's actual ADP per https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/ppr/12-team/all/2018. Here's what I found, though I can't see all the picks, as Yahoo doesn't list out players who weren't on end of season rosters (though if you're not on an end of season roster, that's not a good sign).

Pick 61: Marquise Goodwin (BUST)...actual ADP was 51
Pick 62: Josh Gordon (#48 WR and suspension before Week 16...BUST)...actual ADP was 45
Pick 63: Chris Carson (#15 RB...SUCCESS)...actual ADP was 69
Pick 64: Mark Ingram (#33 RB despite 4-game suspension to open season...SUCCESS)...actual ADP was 46
Pick 65: Evan Engram (#13 TE...BUST)...actual ADP was 73
Pick 66: Marvin Jones (#65 WR...BUST)...actual ADP was 64
Pick 67: Russell Wilson (I see him as high as #6 and as low as #11...he looks a lot better at this pick if he's #6)...actual ADP was 62
Pick 68: not on roster at end of season
Pick 69: Corey Davis (#28 WR...but I'd say most were disappointed with him)...actual ADP was 63
Pick 70: not on roster at end of season
Pick 71: Matt Stafford (BUST)...actual ADP was 105
Pick 72: Greg Olsen (BUST)...actual ADP was 59

What's the point of listing this? 6th round picks are by far no guarantee. If you can get a great building block from this round, you're fortunate...as at least last year, this round was full of busts. If you do go for a player you like here but the player doesn't hit, you might be in the same boat as most others in your league. So I wouldn't let the cache of the 6th round stop you from picking Duke, if you are one who does like his chances.

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3 minutes ago, Corleone said:

Lots of the talk in this thread has mentioned 6th round as a possible pick for Duke. Some think that's a good spot and would even select him with a better pick. And some don't think Duke is worth it in the 6th. Out of curiosity, I looked at the 6th round picks from an actual PPR draft last year (my own). I also listed each guy's actual ADP per https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp/ppr/12-team/all/2018. Here's what I found, though I can't see all the picks, as Yahoo doesn't list out players who weren't on end of season rosters (though if you're not on an end of season roster, that's not a good sign).

Pick 61: Marquise Goodwin (BUST)...actual ADP was 51
Pick 62: Josh Gordon (#48 WR and suspension before Week 16...BUST)...actual ADP was 45
Pick 63: Chris Carson (#15 RB...SUCCESS)...actual ADP was 69
Pick 64: Mark Ingram (#33 RB despite 4-game suspension to open season...SUCCESS)...actual ADP was 46
Pick 65: Evan Engram (#13 TE...BUST)...actual ADP was 73
Pick 66: Marvin Jones (#65 WR...BUST)...actual ADP was 64
Pick 67: Russell Wilson (I see him as high as #6 and as low as #11...he looks a lot better at this pick if he's #6)...actual ADP was 62
Pick 68: not on roster at end of season
Pick 69: Corey Davis (#28 WR...but I'd say most were disappointed with him)...actual ADP was 63
Pick 70: not on roster at end of season
Pick 71: Matt Stafford (BUST)...actual ADP was 105
Pick 72: Greg Olsen (BUST)...actual ADP was 59

What's the point of listing this? 6th round picks are by far no guarantee. If you can get a great building block from this round, you're fortunate...as at least last year, this round was full of busts. If you do go for a player you like here but the player doesn't hit, you might be in the same boat as most others in your league. So I wouldn't let the cache of the 6th round stop you from picking Duke, if you are one who does like his chances.

 

If you're picking him in the 6th, there's a good chance it's as your RB3 or Flex which is exactly where most here have been saying he belongs.  If you're picking him in the 6th as your RB2, well then I hope you picked well in the 1-5 rounds and that you have a good fallback plan for your RB3 in the 7th round or later. Since there's a reasonable chance the Texans do something stupid to torpedo Duke's value and make him a very dubious RB2 pick, especially if your RB1 isn't rock solid. 

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8 minutes ago, jumper said:

 

If you're picking him in the 6th, there's a good chance it's as your RB3 or Flex which is exactly where most here have been saying he belongs.  If you're picking him in the 6th as your RB2, well then I hope you picked well in the 1-5 rounds and that you have a good fallback plan for your RB3 in the 7th round or later. Since there's a reasonable chance the Texans do something stupid to torpedo Duke's value and make him a very dubious RB2 pick, especially if your RB1 isn't rock solid. 

I can agree there. I think Duke can be an upside RB2, though I'd rather have him as my RB3 going into the season (especially if I didn't have a high-end RB1). And also agreed the Texans could do something stupid as well. I hope that's not the case, but I've seen crazier things happen. There are no guarantees but we can only try and make the best educated guesses. 

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17 minutes ago, jumper said:

 

If you're picking him in the 6th, there's a good chance it's as your RB3 or Flex which is exactly where most here have been saying he belongs.  If you're picking him in the 6th as your RB2, well then I hope you picked well in the 1-5 rounds and that you have a good fallback plan for your RB3 in the 7th round or later. Since there's a reasonable chance the Texans do something stupid to torpedo Duke's value and make him a very dubious RB2 pick, especially if your RB1 isn't rock solid. 

I think that if Duke is a workhorse, he's an RB2 with RB1 upside even in standard. I'll gladly take him in the 6th. And if they sign someone else? I can get them in the last round. Houston's situation is undervalued in drafts imo.

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Call this a lazy perpective/ take but a team that gladly gave JAG/ plodder Alfred Blue solid carries to spell Lamar Miller in 2018 are not very likely to sign a running back who can hold a candle to the versatile Duke Johnson. I don’t think they’re panicking after the loss of Lamar Miller as those on the outside make it out to be. They have super cheap UDFA runningbacks on the roster who had mid-late round hype in the 2019 NFL Draft, Big Ten products Karan Higdon and Damarea Crockett. Also, no one discusses the possibility that Johnson was acquired to be an under-contract heir apparent to Miller who was going into a contract year and approaching age 29. 

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