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Duke Johnson 2019 Outlook


ajs723
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He is a sneaky sleeper ROS. Obviously only in (half) PPR, but nonetheless. The Texans remaining schedule looks like a selection out of the top 10 run stuffing defenses. Can't get any tougher than that. Hyde isn't a RB who can create on his own, will be tackled for loss and stopped for minimal gains. Texans will shift their strategy and spread it out more, get dumpoffs to Duke Johnson to replace their run game. It's almost by default, even if they go into the game planning to pound the ball with Hyde. If it doesn't work, Bill O'Brien has proven over and over that he isn't commited to the run and will just air it out - which is where Duke has nice value. If you look at the gamelogs of this season, you can already tell Duke had more usage/targets/receptions in games where they struggled to run the ball. Nice PPR flex ROS!

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Just picked him up. Great schedule coming up for him---gonna need to pass a lot to get some running in space against those defenses. I also like the increased usage in the last couple games. Think he should be 8-15 pts a game ROS (in ppr), with upside if he scores.

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5 hours ago, ukdesi said:

Just picked him up. Great schedule coming up for him---gonna need to pass a lot to get some running in space against those defenses. I also like the increased usage in the last couple games. Think he should be 8-15 pts a game ROS (in ppr), with upside if he scores.

Agreed, I like him a lot ROS. As it is he's been fairly productive lately. You get the feeling they're figuring out how to use him better. And as you mentioned, the gamescripts should be great for him. 

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10 hours ago, ukdesi said:

Just picked him up. Great schedule coming up for him---gonna need to pass a lot to get some running in space against those defenses. I also like the increased usage in the last couple games. Think he should be 8-15 pts a game ROS (in ppr), with upside if he scores.

 

4 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

Agreed, I like him a lot ROS. As it is he's been fairly productive lately. You get the feeling they're figuring out how to use him better. And as you mentioned, the gamescripts should be great for him. 

Not this week. BAL stingy to RBs in the passing game AND Fuller likely to be back. Target share w/o Fuller is 15% and 9% with Fuller. Then IND (26th FFP to RBs) then NE (31st). His window is closed.

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1 hour ago, martinjlm said:

 

Not this week. BAL stingy to RBs in the passing game AND Fuller likely to be back. Target share w/o Fuller is 15% and 9% with Fuller. Then IND (26th FFP to RBs) then NE (31st). His window is closed.

I’m not playing him this week but think you’re overanalyzing — ravens should stuff Hyde which will force them to pass to duke a few times — also I’m not sure that the stats on fuller:duke aren’t coincidental — not sure why fuller would impact duke ; I’d be surprised if he doesn’t have end up with at least 8 ppr points in his game 

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4 minutes ago, ukdesi said:

I’m not playing him this week but think you’re overanalyzing — ravens should stuff Hyde which will force them to pass to duke a few times — also I’m not sure that the stats on fuller:duke aren’t coincidental — not sure why fuller would impact duke ; I’d be surprised if he doesn’t have end up with at least 8 ppr points in his game 

8 is a sit for me

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2 hours ago, martinjlm said:

Not this week. BAL stingy to RBs in the passing game AND Fuller likely to be back. Target share w/o Fuller is 15% and 9% with Fuller. Then IND (26th FFP to RBs) then NE (31st). His window is closed.

What I like though is all the trailing, hurry-up, two minute drill type scenarios we're likely gonna be looking at. That's all Duke. 

And this is just a hunch but Fuller only averaged a few targets a week, and they're generally deep. I think Duke's increase in production lately has more to do with the team making an effort to better utilize him as opposed to Fuller being out. 

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7 hours ago, David Aames said:

huh? fuller playing? doesnt seem like fuller plays this week...but yes fuller destroys everyones value since its argueable that fuller is the number one option in the passing game

 

It may technically be “argueable” but good luck finding someone to argue with.

 

I feel good about Duke tomorrow.

 

-Game script: Ravens can put up numbers, causing Houston to crawl back

-Ravens secondary will sit back on Hop and Fuller/Stills while they lead

-Houston will not have the time to afford trotting out Hyde

-Ravens not great against pass-catching RBs this season

-DUKE SZN

Flex on ‘em

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6 hours ago, GenerallyPoorAdvice said:

 

It may technically be “argueable” but good luck finding someone to argue with.

 

I feel good about Duke tomorrow.

 

-Game script: Ravens can put up numbers, causing Houston to crawl back

-Ravens secondary will sit back on Hop and Fuller/Stills while they lead

-Houston will not have the time to afford trotting out Hyde

-Ravens not great against pass-catching RBs this season

-DUKE SZN

Flex on ‘em

I'd also like to add that as good as the Ravens were last week, they did give up over 110 to Mixon (aka, the only real offensive threat the Bungholes currently have) on the ground, which could help make Duke more promising

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6 minutes ago, ree10 said:

Is Duke droppable at this point? ROS schedule after Indy doesn't look good. 

Houston faces tough run defenses in the coming weeks but Duke is most often used as their pass-catching back and those games should call for pass-heavy game scripts.  I think he's a hold in PPR leagues.

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