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Duke Johnson 2019 Outlook


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1 minute ago, devaster said:

Still doesn't make a lot of sense to me. They haven't been throwing to RB's and that appears to be a coach and/or QB issue. That isn't going to change. It isn't a good fit for Duke and I wouldn't expect him to even have flex value because of the offense he will be in.

 

I have owned Miller for the last 2 years. One of the most frustrating RBs to have. BOB seems to have given every RB the chance to take over Miller. Miller doesn't catch passes, disappears for large portions of a game, and walks off injured at least once a game. Duke will have a big year. Mark it down and quote me in a couple months. One of my favorite picks of my draft. This years James White, but better.

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I flipped him the bird before I cut him. That count?

Season can’t start soon enuf. Seems like every 3 pages the discussion starts over with this type of comment. Rinse. Repeat. Start over. 

A possible projection for Duke... --In 2018, Miller had 210 carries over 14 games (15 carries per game). --Backup Alfred Blue (nobody's idea of a solid NFL RB) had 150 carries. He had 24 in the tw

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1 hour ago, Tenner said:

Add some historical perspective. 

 

It is rare for a team to trade a 3rd round pick for a RB straight up.

 

Trent Richardson trade was for a 1st. 

Corey Dillion was a 2nd

Jerome Bettis in 1996 was a 3rd. 

 

The Texans would not have done this if they didn’t have a very clear vision of him. Granted they don’t have a GM. 

 

Technically their coach is their acting GM as well, so it is O'Brien that is both making the trade and planning how to use Duke.  You'd have to think he doesn't go out and make this deal if he doesn't have some kind of significant idea of how he would use him.  Planning and executing are two very different things, but in this case, I think not having a GM makes me feel more confident that the trade indicates intent to use him.

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1 hour ago, Onion said:

 

I have owned Miller for the last 2 years. One of the most frustrating RBs to have. BOB seems to have given every RB the chance to take over Miller. Miller doesn't catch passes, disappears for large portions of a game, and walks off injured at least once a game. Duke will have a big year. Mark it down and quote me in a couple months. One of my favorite picks of my draft. This years James White, but better.

Miller's hands aren't the issue. He can catch passes as shown in Miami. He just doesn't get targets in Houston. None of their RB's do. It is confusing.

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1 hour ago, devaster said:

Miller's hands aren't the issue. He can catch passes as shown in Miami. He just doesn't get targets in Houston. None of their RB's do. It is confusing.

I think it's Miller's feet that are the bigger problem.

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8 minutes ago, pushaZ said:

I think it's Miller's feet that are the bigger problem.

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/targets-distribution/rb.php?year=2018&start=1&end=17&show=totals

Every season, except for 2015, the Texans have ranked near the bottom of the league in RB targets. Hovering around bottom 5 or 6 every season and dead last in 2018. I'm leaning towards it being a coaching philosophy issue compounded by a QB that scrambles and doesn't dump it off issue.

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5 hours ago, Onion said:

 

I have owned Miller for the last 2 years. One of the most frustrating RBs to have. BOB seems to have given every RB the chance to take over Miller. Miller doesn't catch passes, disappears for large portions of a game, and walks off injured at least once a game. Duke will have a big year. Mark it down and quote me in a couple months. One of my favorite picks of my draft. This years James White, but better.

Except Deshaun Watson does not like to dump the ball off. Like almost never. He would much rather roll out after the pocket collapses (because their o-line is so terrible) and then chuck it to DeAndre or Will Fuller (when he's healthy.) James White is in a totally different situation with a specific role carved out with the best QB of all time. 

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What stands out to me the most...

“In his career Duke has averaged 5.3 ypc in the shotgun and only 3.2 ypc under center. Guess what HOU and Watson do a TON? HOU ran the ball the most in the NFL in 2017 from shotgun and 7th most last season.”

Also, remember this kid is the all time leading rusher at the University of Miami.

Give him the rock.

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From disgruntled and potentially third on the depth chart with the Browns to now traded to the Texans and potentially set for huge volume for what could be an explosive offense. I'm buying.

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16 minutes ago, GoPackGo23 said:

If Miller's injury ends up being significant, where are you now targeting Duke in drafts? Perhaps 5th round in that tier with guys like Ingram and Michel?

 

Need more information. Texans have some young RBs. One of them might take Miller's place with Johnson remaining in the role he would have had with Miller. 

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In my 2QB league with small benches that drafted last week, Duke Johnson was available on the WW. Before the season starts, we have FAAB bidding each night and which has been uneventful across this past week...until tonight. Everyone in my league was aware of the Lamar Miller injury...but I guess I was the only one that really wanted him. I bid $73 (we have a $200 FAAB budget) and just got him. The next highest bid was $22. Mentioning this so that others have an idea of how other people may be valuing Duke, should he be available in FAAB for you (and of course, every league is different...so who knows what'll happen elsewhere).

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In 2017, Duke Johnson ended up as the #11 RB in PPR (per Pro Football Reference). That's really good for a guy who wasn't even the feature back on his team. If Miller is indeed out and if Johnson can hold onto the lead role in Houston, he has the ability to have a really strong season. Now granted, Houston has a weak offensive line. And Duke's efficiency may not remain as high as it has been in the past, if he is a feature back. But volume can do wonders, especially if efficiency is still good overall.

I came upon this article written before the Miller injury, and it has many interesting points...
https://www.fantraxhq.com/duke-johnson-league-winner-2019/

Overall, there are still plenty of things that have to work out right in Houston, but I think Duke may have the opportunity of a lifetime with the Texans...and IMO, I think he can run with it.

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22 hours ago, devaster said:

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/targets-distribution/rb.php?year=2018&start=1&end=17&show=totals

Every season, except for 2015, the Texans have ranked near the bottom of the league in RB targets. Hovering around bottom 5 or 6 every season and dead last in 2018. I'm leaning towards it being a coaching philosophy issue compounded by a QB that scrambles and doesn't dump it off issue.

 

1 minute ago, Corleone said:

In 2017, Duke Johnson ended up as the #11 RB in PPR (per Pro Football Reference). That's really good for a guy who wasn't even the feature back on his team. If Miller is indeed out and if Johnson can hold onto the lead role in Houston, he has the ability to have a really strong season. Now granted, Houston has a weak offensive line. And Duke's efficiency may not remain as high as it has been in the past, if he is a feature back. But volume can do wonders, especially if efficiency is still good overall.

I came upon this article written before the Miller injury, and it has many interesting points...
https://www.fantraxhq.com/duke-johnson-league-winner-2019/

Overall, there are still plenty of things that have to work out right in Houston, but I think Duke may have the opportunity of a lifetime with the Texans...and IMO, I think he can run with it.

That is my main concern if you are trying to prop up Duke's previous seasons catching a bunch of balls. I wouldn't expect that to continue in Houston. I have my doubts that Duke will be all that valuable in fantasy this season. Lack of receptions and a poor OL. With Miller's injury his ADP is going to rocket up. Stay far away. I could be way off though. I'm avoiding him entirely.

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5 minutes ago, Corleone said:

In 2017, Duke Johnson ended up as the #11 RB in PPR (per Pro Football Reference). That's really good for a guy who wasn't even the feature back on his team. If Miller is indeed out and if Johnson can hold onto the lead role in Houston, he has the ability to have a really strong season. Now granted, Houston has a weak offensive line. And Duke's efficiency may not remain as high as it has been in the past, if he is a feature back. But volume can do wonders, especially if efficiency is still good overall.

I came upon this article written before the Miller injury, and it has many interesting points...
https://www.fantraxhq.com/duke-johnson-league-winner-2019/

Overall, there are still plenty of things that have to work out right in Houston, but I think Duke may have the opportunity of a lifetime with the Texans...and IMO, I think he can run with it.

Duke might be the best pass catching back in the league, so I don't think Houston's embarrassment of an offensive line affects him at all. Duke is an extremely capable back, Houston is slightly above-average in terms of using a bellcow (Lamar got 65% of the snaps when healthy last season). I think he'll be the lead back and is an RB2 with low-end RB1 upside even in standard. I'd cuff him though. 

Edited by miasma16
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7 minutes ago, devaster said:

 

That is my main concern if you are trying to prop up Duke's previous seasons catching a bunch of balls. I wouldn't expect that to continue in Houston. I have my doubts that Duke will be all that valuable in fantasy this season. Lack of receptions and a poor OL. With Miller's injury his ADP is going to rocket up. Stay far away. I could be way off though. I'm avoiding him entirely.

Overall, Miller ended up as the #21 RB in 2018 (in 14 games played) and did so without contributing much as a receiver. I think Duke will get significantly more receptions than Miller did and if he is the lead guy in Houston, will be able to be at least a solid RB2. It's possible it doesn't pan out, but that's why they play the games :) 

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