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Duke Johnson 2019 Outlook


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I flipped him the bird before I cut him. That count?

Season can’t start soon enuf. Seems like every 3 pages the discussion starts over with this type of comment. Rinse. Repeat. Start over. 

A possible projection for Duke... --In 2018, Miller had 210 carries over 14 games (15 carries per game). --Backup Alfred Blue (nobody's idea of a solid NFL RB) had 150 carries. He had 24 in the tw

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16 minutes ago, CamNewton said:

For those drafting today or even the rest of this week, where should we be trying to take Duke Johnson if at all in PPR?

CBS has updated projections and they have Duke projected as the #23 RB for points scored. They have him slotted in between Ingram and Tevin Coleman. 

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23 minutes ago, Corleone said:

CBS has updated projections and they have Duke projected as the #23 RB for points scored. They have him slotted in between Ingram and Tevin Coleman. 

That seems about right. Benefit of a better line and better track record goes to Ingram. Better workload puts him ahead of Tevin. 

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Picked him up yesterday morning in the free agents. I guess the stars aligned. Nice not having to spend FAAB. I liked what he could bring for a flex option, but now his potential is through the roof, even if they pick up someone. I’d only be worried if a guy like Melvin Gordon came in. But looking at the guys available now that they could sign and who may be cut on teams soon, none of them are real concerns. I could see the Pats unloading Harris in a deal though. 

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2 hours ago, CamNewton said:

For those drafting today or even the rest of this week, where should we be trying to take Duke Johnson if at all in PPR?

 

I plan on looking for him in the 6th round or so. I don’t know enough about the Houston situation to feel comfortable reaching before that 

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A possible projection for Duke...
--In 2018, Miller had 210 carries over 14 games (15 carries per game).
--Backup Alfred Blue (nobody's idea of a solid NFL RB) had 150 carries. He had 24 in the two games he started while Miller was out.
--Let's say we project Duke for 175 carries in 2019. That's 10.94 carries per game and less than what the Houston offense did last year with Miller (or Blue).
--If Duke does get 175 carries and rushes for 4.0 YPC (less than his 4.3 career number), that would be 700 rushing yards.
--Next let's say that he gets 60 catches. That's a number he exceeded 2 of 4 career seasons, while not serving as the #1 in Cleveland.
--If he makes 60 catches at an 8.3 YPR (less than his 9.2 career mark and less in all 4 individual seasons), that would be 500 receiving yards.
--700 rush + 500 receiving = 1200 yards from scrimmage.
--In 2018, 1200 yards from scrimmage would have ranked as the 14th most yards for any RB (and it was 64 more yards than what Miller got).
--If you get 1200 total yards from your RB and reasonable TD luck, you'll have a very good fantasy season. 
--And that's with 1200 yards. There's the potential for Duke to exceed that IMO. Let's say he finished with 1320 yards (which is an extra 7.5 yards per game). 
--All of a sudden you would then have the 10th most yards for any RB (by 2018 numbers). 

Maybe the Texans make a trade or maybe one of their young RB's emerges. Maybe Duke doesn't get as many as 175 carries (which is only around 1.5 carries per game more than what Alfred Blue managed as a backup for Houston). There are no guarantees at all. But I think there's a clear path for him to put up very good numbers. 

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In theory, this should be a nice match considering how much the Texans work out of shotgun.  Duke a career 5.2 YPC out of shotgun.

He grades out as a 91 rating pass catcher so that is elite.  Watson was never one to check down to the RB but then again, they have never had a guy as dynamic as Duke.  Watson has also gone on record saying how “he is an electric guy”.

5th-6th round ADP in PPR sounds about right and well worth the risk to see how this shakes out but he should be in line for a heavy workload.

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14 minutes ago, Corleone said:

A possible projection for Duke...
--In 2018, Miller had 210 carries over 14 games (15 carries per game).
--Backup Alfred Blue (nobody's idea of a solid NFL RB) had 150 carries. He had 24 in the two games he started while Miller was out.
--Let's say we project Duke for 175 carries in 2019. That's 10.94 carries per game and less than what the Houston offense did last year with Miller (or Blue).
--If Duke does get 175 carries and rushes for 4.0 YPC (less than his 4.3 career number), that would be 700 rushing yards.
--Next let's say that he gets 60 catches. That's a number he exceeded 2 of 4 career seasons, while not serving as the #1 in Cleveland.
--If he makes 60 catches at an 8.3 YPR (less than his 9.2 career mark and less in all 4 individual seasons), that would be 500 receiving yards.
--700 rush + 500 receiving = 1200 yards from scrimmage.
--In 2018, 1200 yards from scrimmage would have ranked as the 14th most yards for any RB (and it was 64 more yards than what Miller got).
--If you get 1200 total yards from your RB and reasonable TD luck, you'll have a very good fantasy season. 
--And that's with 1200 yards. There's the potential for Duke to exceed that IMO. Let's say he finished with 1320 yards (which is an extra 7.5 yards per game). 
--All of a sudden you would then have the 10th most yards for any RB (by 2018 numbers). 

Maybe the Texans make a trade or maybe one of their young RB's emerges. Maybe Duke doesn't get as many as 175 carries (which is only around 1.5 carries per game more than what Alfred Blue managed as a backup for Houston). There are no guarantees at all. But I think there's a clear path for him to put up very good numbers. 

Very useful post. Granted Houston is not only inept in the red zone, but as a fan I suspect they wouldn't give Duke goal line carries anyway. But even with, say, 5-6 total TDs on the year (and without assuming a running back plays 16 games), that lines up with what I posited. RB2 with RB1 upside, though with the risk that Houston doesn't use him as the back two thirds of the time. And there are definitely some competent, bruiser free agent running backs available. 

Edited by miasma16
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John McClain of the Houston Chronicle expects Duke Johnson to "get all the playing time he can handle."

Houston's backfield has thinned out considerably following the sudden release of D'Onta Foreman and now a potentially season-ending injury to bell cow Lamar Miller. Johnson has never been a featured back—the Browns mostly employed him as a passing-down complement to Isaiah Crowell and later Nick Chubb. But Johnson, who has averaged a healthy 4.3 yards per carry for his career with 13 touchdowns in four NFL seasons (five rushing, eight receiving), should be up to the task. The Texans will assuredly bring in another running back for depth purposes, but there's no doubt Johnson will see an increased workload this year. He's the RB26 and 63rd overall in our latest PPR rankings.

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6 minutes ago, pdizzle710 said:

I snagged him in the 6th yesterday night after the news broke of Lamar's injury. I would think late 5th to early 6th would be where most would consider him.

I'll play the ADP game, but if his ADP rises up to around 40 I'd still gladly reach a bit to ensure I get him. I'm obviously pretty bullish. I'd love to hear where other people are seeing him go though. Agreed that he's probably being valued as a 5th going forward.

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I'm just gonna leave this lil nugget right here without further comment:

 

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-duke-johnson-jr-can-carry-the-load-in-houston-replace-injured-lamar-miller

Johnson’s rare combination of receiving ability and plus production on the ground make him a perfect candidate for modern bell-cow role in the NFL – a heavy workload favoring targets similar to Christian McCaffrey, Tarik Cohen, Alvin Kamara, etc.

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Ok, maybe one more:

 

https://www.rotoballer.com/lamar-millers-injury-what-it-means-for-duke-johnson-and-the-texans-other-rbs/662527

A quick calculation yields around 50 points on receptions, and 160 on rushing/receiving yards combined for a total of 210 points. Sprinkle in a few touchdowns and we're looking at a potential 250+ PPR points season. That would have made Johnson a low-end RB1 last season.

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1 minute ago, CABLE87 said:

They have clowney on the trade block, pump the breaks cuz they could trade for a RB still

I would approach his ADP assuming they don't, but if they do sign anyone that looks like a legitimate threat (and they probably will) I'd make sure to handcuff Duke.

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