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Duke Johnson 2019 Outlook


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I flipped him the bird before I cut him. That count?

Season can’t start soon enuf. Seems like every 3 pages the discussion starts over with this type of comment. Rinse. Repeat. Start over. 

A possible projection for Duke... --In 2018, Miller had 210 carries over 14 games (15 carries per game). --Backup Alfred Blue (nobody's idea of a solid NFL RB) had 150 carries. He had 24 in the tw

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1 hour ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

I think people are also discounting the fact that Duke is an excellent slot receiver and the Texans are already having serious receiver issues. Lots of question marks behind D HOP right now, with Fuller being no guarantee, and Keke probably having a nasty ankle sprain or even high ankle sprain.

If you factor in the low-end side of carries, and his floor being 70 receptions by just being the RB alone, what about if he plays slot receiver, and scores another 20 receptions there?

We could be looking at a CMC-lite season, especially if DUKE gets goal line carries.

I'd rather have DUKE than Tevin Coleman, Ekeler, Sanders, and the other 5th 6th round guys right now. 

There is no way his floor is 70 receptions. In fact the only RB I would even think of giving a floor of 70 receptions is McCaffrey. But I like Johnson's overall opportunity. Not love, but like. I don't expect greatness esp behind that OL but he's at least a reasonably talented back who will get a lot of touches. 

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I love him as an RB 3, flex option, or depth piece moving forward. Shades of his 2017 season.  What I don't see is him being more than a committee/role player at his size.  He was great in the role he played in 2017 and I think he can easily replicate that now with Miller's unfortunate injury.

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11 minutes ago, bomont said:

There is no way his floor is 70 receptions. In fact the only RB I would even think of giving a floor of 70 receptions is McCaffrey. But I like Johnson's overall opportunity. Not love, but like. I don't expect greatness esp behind that OL but he's at least a reasonably talented back who will get a lot of touches. 

He averages about 60. If he starts, as he's expected to, he's not far off. For all the ridiculous and bad projections that get thrown around on this board, that one's fairly reasonable.

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1 minute ago, dicka24 said:

I love him as an RB 3, flex option, or depth piece moving forward. Shades of his 2017 season.  What I don't see is him being more than a committee/role player at his size.  He was great in the role he played in 2017 and I think he can easily replicate that now with Miller's unfortunate injury.

Again, he weighs 210 lbs. You guys should really try Googling things before posting as an authority.

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3 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

He averages about 60. If he starts, as he's expected to, he's not far off. For all the ridiculous and bad projections that get thrown around on this board, that one's fairly reasonable.

If he averages about 60, obviously his floor is below that, like 40-50.  I'd say 60 is more likely though, and more quite possible. 

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Anybody else seeing these rumors that Houston has got a deal done with Jay Ajayi, just haven't made it official yet?


Most added player on Yahoo! today. Not surprising, either, given what I know about Houston. I'd expect Ajayi to get the same touches Lamar would've gotten, and Duke to be in the same role he was in on the Browns. Ajayi has 2 weeks to get acclimated to the offense; I usually think it takes backs about 2 weeks to understand the offense.

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15 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

Anybody else seeing these rumors that Houston has got a deal done with Jay Ajayi, just haven't made it official yet?


Most added player on Yahoo! today. Not surprising, either, given what I know about Houston. I'd expect Ajayi to get the same touches Lamar would've gotten, and Duke to be in the same role he was in on the Browns. Ajayi has 2 weeks to get acclimated to the offense; I usually think it takes backs about 2 weeks to understand the offense.

 

Edited by smeeze
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Just now, miasma16 said:

Just about any other team in the league I'd be unsure, but McClain is probably more plugged in than any team-dedicated reporter in the NFL. Seems legit.

Wouldn’t be surprised if it does ultimately happen though. No idea where Al Michaels got that info, probably a fake twitter account.

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Duke has a 58th percentile for BMI (RBs) so he’s on the smaller end of the lead backs but the same size as Aaron Jones. 

 

Hes still young (25) without too many miles at the pro level.

 

Anyone buying in keeper/dynasties? Could be a sneaky good play this year.

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RW on Ajayi when he's actually playing for an NFL team: Haha this guy sucks, I can't believe you idiots are rostering him!

RW on Ajayi sitting on a couch, after Al Michaels has a brain fart: Incoming lead back duties, all aboard!

Edited by yahyahtrick
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27 minutes ago, yahyahtrick said:

RW on Ajayi when he's actually playing for an NFL team: Haha this guy sucks, I can't believe you idiots are rostering him!

RW on Ajayi sitting on a couch, after Al Michaels has a brain fart: Incoming lead back duties, all aboard!

2018 ADP: 4th round

2019 ADP: free

Therein lies the difference

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29 minutes ago, smeeze said:

2018 ADP: 4th round

2019 ADP: free

Therein lies the difference

 

According to how bad RW has considered him in the past, I don’t think ADP should matter.

Everyone likes to talk about how Duke was never used as a lead back, Ajayi had stints but was never fully used in that capacity either. And like Duke, he’s never really beaten anybody for a proven workhorse role. To boot, he’s also coming off an ACL tear and is “injury prone.” I think this warrants the same the same concerns as Duke’s perceived negatives. 

I don’t think there’s zero chance Ajayi can provide value if, if he gets signed by the Texans. The safer bet is the guy who is already there that the franchise spent draft capital on. 

Edited by yahyahtrick
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All that being said, I don't think Duke is going to be an amazing value if he solidifies himself as a 4th round pick as it get closer to the season, so perhaps not as safe as I think he is at the moment (I've already drafted). I see him in the Ingram / Lindsay / White tier, and if you can get him after them, he would provide good returns. 

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Ajayi has more rushing yards in 3 games (624) than Duke Johnson has had in his last 35 games (612).

 

Duke is now being drafted earlier than where Miller was being drafted pre-injury, and is still climbing.  For the right price I would have gladly given Duke a shot, but this is too rich for my blood.

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2 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

Ajayi has more rushing yards in 3 games (624) than Duke Johnson has had in his last 35 games (612).

 

Duke is now being drafted earlier than where Miller was being drafted pre-injury, and is still climbing.  For the right price I would have gladly given Duke a shot, but this is too rich for my blood.

Why is that shocking?  Duke is much more talented than a fading JAG Miller, and not remotely close.  Houston saw the writing on the wall pre- Miller injury by giving up a 3rd rounder.

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7 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

Ajayi has more rushing yards in 3 games (624) than Duke Johnson has had in his last 35 games (612).

 

Duke is now being drafted earlier than where Miller was being drafted pre-injury, and is still climbing.  For the right price I would have gladly given Duke a shot, but this is too rich for my blood.

 

Duke is also a dual threat and has about 500 more total yards than Ajayi since starting their careers in 2015. 

I agree Duke can get too expensive as it gets closer to the season, however at his current price I don't believe he is.

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6 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

Ajayi has more rushing yards in 3 games (624) than Duke Johnson has had in his last 35 games (612).

 

Duke is now being drafted earlier than where Miller was being drafted pre-injury, and is still climbing.  For the right price I would have gladly given Duke a shot, but this is too rich for my blood.

On the flip side, Duke has more receiving yards in his top 6 receiving games (487) than Ajayi has in his 42-game career (419) :) 

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