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Brandon Woodruff 2019 Outlook


nittanychris
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Looking deeper here...

In 26.2 ip as a reliever last year:

27.9% k-bb% (13th best among all relievers with at least 20ip)

2.03/2.26/2.34/2.16 ERA/FIP/xFIP/SIERA

(21st,10th,5th,7th)

however these cane with some less than impressive numbers:

11.9 swstr% & 74.9 contact%

SSS on not those ERA and estimators are pretty legit, couple these with his k-bb% and it seems Woodruff could be a pretty legit pitcher, or at least reliever...

He had an even smaller sample size as a a starter accumulating 15.2 ip through 4 starts:

An absurd 12.5% bb% and just a 5.6 k-bb%!!! ERA and all other estimators were over 5! 

Not sure what (if anything) he does differently as a reliever and a starter but it seems as if his bad starting numbers could be chalked up to one bad start... and you guessed it, at Coors! Not sure where to find stats on first, second, etc. times through a lineup but would love to dig deeper to see if that’s at all an issue. Either way, his numbers as a reliever, SSS or not, are intriguing enough to take a flier on him as a starter. If he can even come close to those numbers he will be a steal!

(source: Fangrpahs.com)

 

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I'm not in on this guy. I'll take a wait-and-see approach, and if it's too late, then it's just too late. But he wasn't that good in AAA in 2017 or 2018 as a SP...he wasn't that good as a SP in Milwaukee in 2017 or 2018. He was very successful as a RP last year in the Majors, but I just question his effectiveness as a SP. Maybe he'll figure it out and break out this year (he's only 26), but his AAA and MLB numbers as a SP in the last two seasons just give me pause. And yes, I understand his AAA numbers came in Colorado Springs.

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7 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

I'm not in on this guy. I'll take a wait-and-see approach, and if it's too late, then it's just too late. But he wasn't that good in AAA in 2017 or 2018 as a SP...he wasn't that good as a SP in Milwaukee in 2017 or 2018. He was very successful as a RP last year in the Majors, but I just question his effectiveness as a SP. Maybe he'll figure it out and break out this year (he's only 26), but his AAA and MLB numbers as a SP in the last two seasons just give me pause. And yes, I understand his AAA numbers came in Colorado Springs.

He’s taken in all three of my 12 team leagues (I own him in one), so there isn’t even much of a wait and see approach in deep leagues. It’s a matter of preference since he is a dart throw, like many back end starters. I like him though. And if he sucks, easy drop.

Edited by hangin n wangin
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2 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

He’s taken in all three of my 12 team leagues (I own him in one), so there isn’t even much of a wait and see approach in deep leagues. It’s a matter of preference since he is a dart throw, like many back end starters. I like him though. And if he sucks, easy drop.

 

He's sitting on the wire in my 12-team, 30-man keeper league, pretty competitive. He wasn't drafted in my 14-team, 28-man keeper league, very competitive, but he was just picked up via FAAB in the last cycle (Monday). Both of these league are fairly deep, and he was just picked up in one of them. 

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27 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

He's sitting on the wire in my 12-team, 30-man keeper league, pretty competitive. He wasn't drafted in my 14-team, 28-man keeper league, very competitive, but he was just picked up via FAAB in the last cycle (Monday). Both of these league are fairly deep, and he was just picked up in one of them. 

Yea he slowly getting picked up. I picked him up when he was 10% owned on yahoo. He’s now 27%. He’s not a must own or anything so I don’t necessarily disagree with you not wanting him. I just figured he wouldn’t be available in most 12-14 team leagues right now.

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13 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

Yea he slowly getting picked up. I picked him up when he was 10% owned on yahoo. He’s now 27%. He’s not a must own or anything so I don’t necessarily disagree with you not wanting him. I just figured he wouldn’t be available in most 12-14 team leagues right now.

 

Once teams start IL-ing guys he wont be available 

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7 minutes ago, kmoore1521 said:

Once teams start IL-ing guys he wont be available 

 

This. For all intents and purposes there's essentially another round or 2 left in everyone's draft once the IL kicks in. Don't have room for him yet but he's pretty high on my priority list in a 12 teamer.  

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He's 54% owned on CBS and is at the top of the Most Added list. I knew all about his ST numbers but was meh on him because his name is Woodruff. Then I saw his outing the other day. I bought in after a few innings. Now, I'm an idiot so take that with a grain of salt but he really did look like someone that was in complete command of every pitch and was executing a gameplan and attacking every hitter with purpose. No nibbling on the plate or hoping the guy chases some bullsh*t in the dirt, just straight filth that they couldn't hit and couldn't lay off of.

Edited by GrapeJuice
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That was a heck of a good showing imo. Was nibbling around a bit too much and ran up his pitch count but I would be looking to buy everywhere I could.

The stuff is very much legit and he's got a deep arsenal of offerings too:

3 different types of FB --but really his 4 seamer and 2 seamer move a bunch and get in on the hands of righties and off the barrel of lefties:

-4 seamer sat over 96 MPH and popped many at 98+, 7 whiffs

-His sinker averaged about 95 MPH and he threw 18 of them-- 78% strikes with 2 whiffs

-SL (18) at 90 MPH with all kinds of movement and 3 whiffs

-CH (10) at 86 MPH with nice darting action, 2 whiffs and a 70% strike rate overall

-CU only threw 6 but it had solid shape and came in at 81 MPH, no whiffs but he got it over the plate and I hope he begins to call for it more

I own zero shares but hope to change that soon...even with a tough schedule moving forward, I see much profit potential.

 

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2 minutes ago, Redsfan34 said:

Why doesn’t he have SP eligibility on ESPN yet? He’s making his second start tomorrow, and has already cost me a save because it’s 2 RP league. 

 

I would assume that ESPN requires 5 starts to be a SP, and he only had 4 last year. If that is the case, you’ll have to wait until he gets that fifth start this year to get his SP designation. Check your league settings to verify. 

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2 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

I would assume that ESPN requires 5 starts to be a SP, and he only had 4 last year. If that is the case, you’ll have to wait until he gets that fifth start this year to get his SP designation. Check your league settings to verify. 

I’ll check my settings, but you’re saying he’ll have to make 5 starts this season to get that SP designation?

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7 minutes ago, Redsfan34 said:

I’ll check my settings, but you’re saying he’ll have to make 5 starts this season to get that SP designation?

 

That would be my guess as to why he didn’t have the SP designation coming into this season. He had 4 starts, and I know some formats require 5. Yahoo doesn’t, but it’s pretty lax on eligibility. 

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2 hours ago, Members_Only_76 said:

 

First 3 innings he was fire. I missed the part he went downhill unfortunately. Anyone have insight? 

 

Stuff looked pretty good, especially when he was ahead in the count, he was able to sit them down (hence the 8Ks). The Cubs got most of their damage against him in the 4th. He gave up a single to Schwarber, hit Contreras, and then gave up a 3 run bomb to freaking Descalso. 

 

Kris Bryant later drove in Hayward (who was walked) on a nice little double, but besides that the Cubs didn’t really square him up in his short outing. 

 

The worst part about the start was his inefficient pitch count pretty much throughout. He was taking counts very deep every time and went like 35 pitches through two inning and 55 after three. I knew regardless of the struggles in the 4th, he was looking at short night.

 

Again, stuff looked really good. Just kind of scares me that because of the struggles the 2nd and 3rd time through lineup, and the inefficiency, that they may eventually go back to using him as a RP if their rotation can get to the point where there is a lot of good startings going, like possibly after Nelson returns.

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