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Jake Arrieta 2019 Outlook


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Sold high on Arrieta and Quintana today.  Veteran pitchers that have name recognition are great to draft and hope for a hot start. It's tempting to think that they've recaptured the magic, but unless they are top talents like Verlander / Greinke / Kershaw, they usually have trouble keeping an ERA under 4 for the season.

 

I do like the movement I saw, but he just doesn't have the velocity, and ability to consistently paint the corners like the other veterans do.  If you can package Arrieta with another overachieving veteran, to get someone on the up-and-up, I'd recommend making that move before you risk him settling in as a SP5.  Some team owners may see his name, and current ERA, and think he can hold down their SP3 spot, but I am not one of them.

 

Clevinger, Folty, and David Archer might be good pitchers to target for an upgrade that can help your fantasy squad much more than Arrieta.  You'll have to give up an additional player to obtain them, but each of these guys have a buy-low window wide open right now.  

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Solid start against WAS (Nats are actually playing a little better recently). Lines up for a nice schedule next week with 2 starts Mets and Marlins. Maybe the Phils start heating back up soon and Arrieta brings some Wins.

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On 3/19/2019 at 9:24 AM, Coach George said:

 

The main thing I like about Arrieta is the price. He’s going undrafted in some leagues...like my main league. I scooped him up for free.

I wouldn’t advocate taking him super early but I do think he’s a top 50 SP with a solid track record.

 

He was pretty good in April last year and then had a dominant May (0.90 ERA) before getting hurt in June. It looks like the knee injury derailed him last year. 

 

On 3/19/2019 at 1:08 PM, Coach George said:

 

Well he did have a 1.17 and a 1.13 WHIP in April and May last year...pre-injury.

 

Sure, the ERA and WHIP last April and May were good, but it also came with less than 7 K/9.  I don't like owning pitchers with low K rates because 1) strikeouts are a category and 2) pitchers with low K rates aren't likely to sustain great ERAs and WHIPs in the long run.  On Arrieta's page last year, I advised to sell him for whatever you could get after May, and people killed me for it.  At this point, I don't think Arrieta's worth owning in even deep leagues anymore.  He's been a liability in every fantasy category over the past calendar year.

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