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Mookie Betts 2019 Outlook


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Part of a player's high draft ranking is the confidence in knowing they might not finish quite as high as they're ranked but they'll still finish as a sure-fire high end piece. This is a terrible vers

[...] There are currently 3 guys that were drafted in the 1st round who are currently ranked in the top 12 in 5 x 5 (espn player rater). That doesn’t mean we have 9 busts. This happens every sing

He hit leadoff last season and won mvp.

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3 hours ago, NoHablaIngles said:

ive been trying to stay patient. Mookie deserves some rope. But this guy is annoying the heck outta me. Get your crap together mookie!!!!

 

He’s the 25th ranked player in my league, not sure where he’s failing you 

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29 minutes ago, tuesdays said:

 

He’s the 25th ranked player in my league, not sure where he’s failing you 

Last year set a very high bar.  He missed about a month of games and was BY FAR #1 ranked player in fantasy.  He made Mike Trout look like Stephen Piscotty.  Unfortunately looking at his profile it looks like he’ll probably be taking a Bryce Harper road of guys who have elite plate discipline, but wildly inconsistent hit/BABIP profiles each year.  2017 he had .268 BABIP, 2018 .368 BABIP.  Both those super flukey and hard to reproduce in hindsight.  This year now .295.  It will go up some IMO.  However he’s not sniffing a .350 average or .650 slugging again.  Probably in his entire career.  I’ve rode Mookie’s jock harder than a ton of people in forum.  But I’d be doing a disservice if I told people I thought he was best player in baseball.  He isn’t.  He’s probably not top 5 and he probably won’t be top 10 in fantasy this year.  Is saying a dudes more of a top 20 player than a top 10 a slight?  Maybe to some.  But at end of day he’s still going put up elite stats.  He’s just not going to put up anything close to last year.

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13 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Last year set a very high bar.  He missed about a month of games and was BY FAR #1 ranked player in fantasy.  He made Mike Trout look like Stephen Piscotty.  Unfortunately looking at his profile it looks like he’ll probably be taking a Bryce Harper road of guys who have elite plate discipline, but wildly inconsistent hit/BABIP profiles each year.  2017 he had .268 BABIP, 2018 .368 BABIP.  Both those super flukey and hard to reproduce in hindsight.  This year now .295.  It will go up some IMO.  However he’s not sniffing a .350 average or .650 slugging again.  Probably in his entire career.  I’ve rode Mookie’s jock harder than a ton of people in forum.  But I’d be doing a disservice if I told people I thought he was best player in baseball.  He isn’t.  He’s probably not top 5 and he probably won’t be top 10 in fantasy this year.  Is saying a dudes more of a top 20 player than a top 10 a slight?  Maybe to some.  But at end of day he’s still going put up elite stats.  He’s just not going to put up anything close to last year.

 

Oh, sure. He likely peaked last year, technically. But that doesn't make him a bust this year, even if you took him second overall. People who took JoRam third overall are looking at a bust. But getting top 20/30 production from a first round draft pick is good return. Guys like Cody Bellinger and Josh Bell are performing far above their ADP. As long as you don't totally bust in your top eight picks, like taking JoRam in the first round, Mike Stanton in the second round, Khris Davis in the third, you're going to have a shot in the season...

 

Mookie's fine. He's not the best player in fantasy, but he's not hurting anyone's team

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43 minutes ago, tuesdays said:

 

Oh, sure. He likely peaked last year, technically. But that doesn't make him a bust this year, even if you took him second overall. People who took JoRam third overall are looking at a bust. But getting top 20/30 production from a first round draft pick is good return. Guys like Cody Bellinger and Josh Bell are performing far above their ADP. As long as you don't totally bust in your top eight picks, like taking JoRam in the first round, Mike Stanton in the second round, Khris Davis in the third, you're going to have a shot in the season...

 

Mookie's fine. He's not the best player in fantasy, but he's not hurting anyone's team

I agree completely.  There’s a fine line between “disappointment” and “bust”.  Mookie right now at his floor so far in production is still top 50.  That’s a very nice floor.  That shows you even at his worst he’s still returning decent enough value.  Sure, he’s a top 3 pick so people want more and it’s more under a microscope.  But owners have to realize at the worst they’re getting top 40 stats.  And that’s at the absolute floor.

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They showed a graphic on TV other day during the Sox game, that pitches in the middle and bottom of the zone he's just not hitting like he was last year. Which I'm sure hes perfectly capable of working on and improving as good as he is.

Also part of his somewhat struggles might be not hitting leadoff where he seemingly produces best. This year they started with Benny leadoff, but have moved Betts back for ROS. In 2017 they experimented hitting Betts elsewhere besides leadoff and he had some really dry stretches and dampened his AVG. Looks like the same has happened this year when they weren't hitting him leadoff. 

Hopefully hitting lead ROS hw will really get going. The Sox lineup hasn't really even gotten super hot yet, Betts should be fine. 

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6 hours ago, tuesdays said:

 

He’s the 25th ranked player in my league, not sure where he’s failing you 

 

LOL. He was drafted as top 2 overall pick though. Not late 2nd round (25th ranked player in 12 team league). I don't know about everyone else, but when I draft someone with a top 1-2 pick, I won't be satisfied with performance equal to late 2nd round. But that's just me.

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5 hours ago, tuesdays said:

 

Oh, sure. He likely peaked last year, technically. But that doesn't make him a bust this year, even if you took him second overall. People who took JoRam third overall are looking at a bust. But getting top 20/30 production from a first round draft pick is good return. Guys like Cody Bellinger and Josh Bell are performing far above their ADP. As long as you don't totally bust in your top eight picks, like taking JoRam in the first round, Mike Stanton in the second round, Khris Davis in the third, you're going to have a shot in the season...

 

Mookie's fine. He's not the best player in fantasy, but he's not hurting anyone's team

 

But that's the point some are saying. He was drafted as a top 1-2 player in fantasy and isn't performing to those expectations which allows for disappointment.

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still a lot of season left but, buxton is matching his production. that's something you would never have to say about trout with a third+ of the season over

chalk another one up for trout being the undisputed 1.1 pick. (see altuve and Mookie owners last 2 years. whos next years victim? yelich/Bellinger/acuna).

I got talked into having Mookie 1.2 because lineup, last years production, and sb but Arenados consistent elite production should of been the pick.

 

mookies outside top 75 overall in standard 5x5 

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They need to just keep him at leadoff every year. He primarily led off in 2016 from what I remember and had a huge year. 2017 wasn't bad, but the gripes you all have this season mirror what everyone said about him for much of 2017. I had him in 2017 and when they had him hitting like 3rd or 4th, he had produced below expectations then like he has for some this year. Last year hit leadoff just about all year and had another big season. 

I don't think he's going to be one good year then one down year type player. Just feel they need to keep him hitting leadoff which works best for him, the team, and us grumpy fantasy owners. How ROS is impacted with Betts not hitting leadoff most of this year who knows, would imagine and hope he gets hot. The Sox lineup as a whole has been good but hasn't really scorched the earth like in the past, hopefully Betts at leadoff ROS ignites himself and everyone else.

It makes sense I guess to want to hit him leadoff, but also to see what he could do in other spots in the lineup. However he just seems to be a player BOS should want to set and forget at leadoff where he's apparently most comfortable/productive and not screw with what has worked best.

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Part of a player's high draft ranking is the confidence in knowing they might not finish quite as high as they're ranked but they'll still finish as a sure-fire high end piece. This is a terrible version of Mookie right now and he's still performing as a second round pick. That guaranteed safety is worth a lot. And there's still plenty of season for him to go on a bender. He's definitely been a disappointment, but again, this isn't what is killing your team and he can still pick it up.

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4 hours ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

LOL. He was drafted as top 2 overall pick though. Not late 2nd round (25th ranked player in 12 team league). I don't know about everyone else, but when I draft someone with a top 1-2 pick, I won't be satisfied with performance equal to late 2nd round. But that's just me.

[...]

There are currently 3 guys that were drafted in the 1st round who are currently ranked in the top 12 in 5 x 5 (espn player rater). That doesn’t mean we have 9 busts. This happens every single year. 

The guys who win leagues will hit on one or more of the players who outperform their ADP by a bit (Bellinger, JBell, A.Meadows, TAnderson) and then have other consistent players. 

Mookie is currently 33rd on the player rater. He is not killing your team. He is a great pick because his floor is so high, not because he was guaranteed to finish top 3 (though there’s a lot of season left). 

The people who will complain about Mookie’s production fall under at least one of 2 categories (and I mean no disrespect): 

1) You play H2H  and are mad he’s not carrying weeks

2) The rest of your draft sucked, you didn’t hit on anyone else, and you’re upset he’s not carrying your team

Many forget that if he were to go 26 HR/26 SB, that would be one per week of each. Fantasy baseball is a game where you need multiple contributors going through streaks at the same time. Don’t blame one guy who didn’t live up to your unrealistic expectations. 

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5 hours ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

But that's the point some are saying. He was drafted as a top 1-2 player in fantasy and isn't performing to those expectations which allows for disappointment.

 

I get that people are bummed but they really have no reason to be. It’s very unlikely that a player drafted first or second is going to rank first or second in a player’s league. The margin of error for those players is so slim if you expect them to return their draft position. Meanwhile, a player drafted in rounds 4-6 (or better yet, rounds 16-20) has a much higher chance of performing above their draft position.

 

sorry if this is all really basic, I just don’t see why people are upset that their first round pick is returning second or third round value. 

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2 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

[...]

There are currently 3 guys that were drafted in the 1st round who are currently ranked in the top 12 in 5 x 5 (espn player rater). That doesn’t mean we have 9 busts. This happens every single year. 

The guys who win leagues will hit on one or more of the players who outperform their ADP by a bit (Bellinger, JBell, A.Meadows, TAnderson) and then have other consistent players. 

Mookie is currently 33rd on the player rater. He is not killing your team. He is a great pick because his floor is so high, not because he was guaranteed to finish top 3 (though there’s a lot of season left). 

The people who will complain about Mookie’s production fall under at least one of 2 categories (and I mean no disrespect): 

1) You play H2H  and are mad he’s not carrying weeks

2) The rest of your draft sucked, you didn’t hit on anyone else, and you’re upset he’s not carrying your team

Many forget that if he were to go 26 HR/26 SB, that would be one per week of each. Fantasy baseball is a game where you need multiple contributors going through streaks at the same time. Don’t blame one guy who didn’t live up to your unrealistic expectations. 

 

None of your "absolute points" apply to me, but I am still able to understand why and how some people would be disappointed with Mookie's numbers so far. I never said he's killing anyone's team, in fact I have him in my dynasty league and am doing just fine at top of standings so your quoting me to illustrate your points makes little sense tbh but thank you for the lesson.

EDIT: Still scratching my head as to how what I originally said lead you to quote me and claim your (2) points as the only reason's someone would be disappointed with his performance so far. Did you ever think maybe it's possible to still be doing well and still wish you had more out of your top 1-2 pick? Those two things can happen together, ya know.

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1 hour ago, tuesdays said:

 

I get that people are bummed but they really have no reason to be. It’s very unlikely that a player drafted first or second is going to rank first or second in a player’s league. The margin of error for those players is so slim if you expect them to return their draft position. Meanwhile, a player drafted in rounds 4-6 (or better yet, rounds 16-20) has a much higher chance of performing above their draft position.

 

sorry if this is all really basic, I just don’t see why people are upset that their first round pick is returning second or third round value. 

We've discussed this in threads in the past. I remember having this argument about Goldschmidt in 2016, who I bought low on. People were saying he was a disappointment, because they were being stubborn even late into the season about being wrong, and it was a very simple argument. I looked at the other first round players, and he was ranked in the middle of the pack amongst them.

NEQQFL0.png

 

Identical situation here. 4 players ahead of him on the season, 5 behind him. Nitpick your arguments all you want, he hasn't been disappointing at all, he's providing average value for a first round pick, and you have to expect that he improves anyway. These numbers don't reflect the 2 run homer he hit today.

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19 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

Last year set a very high bar.  He missed about a month of games and was BY FAR #1 ranked player in fantasy.  He made Mike Trout look like Stephen Piscotty.  Unfortunately looking at his profile it looks like he’ll probably be taking a Bryce Harper road of guys who have elite plate discipline, but wildly inconsistent hit/BABIP profiles each year.  2017 he had .268 BABIP, 2018 .368 BABIP.  Both those super flukey and hard to reproduce in hindsight.  This year now .295.  It will go up some IMO.  However he’s not sniffing a .350 average or .650 slugging again.  Probably in his entire career.  I’ve rode Mookie’s jock harder than a ton of people in forum.  But I’d be doing a disservice if I told people I thought he was best player in baseball.  He isn’t.  He’s probably not top 5 and he probably won’t be top 10 in fantasy this year.  Is saying a dudes more of a top 20 player than a top 10 a slight?  Maybe to some.  But at end of day he’s still going put up elite stats.  He’s just not going to put up anything close to last year.

 

In hindsight you are definitely correct, but literally no one on this forum said anything negative about Mookie before the season.  I also saw zero "experts" that had Mookie ranked outside the same top 5 (hardly any ranked him outside of the top 3).  This is not an Aaron Nola situation (where one quick look at his advanced stats from last year should have told everyone that he had no business being drafted in the 3rd round).  I really don't think anyone could have seen Mookie's disappointing season coming like this, but if you can point me to one person who said before the season that Mookie was overvalued or that Mookie was going to be a bust, I'll reconsider my stance.

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1 hour ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

In hindsight you are definitely correct, but literally no one on this forum said anything negative about Mookie before the season.  I also saw zero "experts" that had Mookie ranked outside the same top 5 (hardly any ranked him outside of the top 3).  This is not an Aaron Nola situation (where one quick look at his advanced stats from last year should have told everyone that he had no business being drafted in the 3rd round).  I really don't think anyone could have seen Mookie's disappointing season coming like this, but if you can point me to one person who said before the season that Mookie was overvalued or that Mookie was going to be a bust, I'll reconsider my stance.

You're arguing different things. Some people were definitely saying he probably wasn't going to be quite as good as last year, but that's different from saying he was going to bust. And so far he's been fine. Slightly disappointing, but not THAT far off pace that he couldn't be back on track for a monster season after one hot week. He isn't a bust even if he finishes the season at his current ranking. In fact, him him ranking so high despite the muted output thus far is WHY he was such a high pick. When you're the first pick after Trout (because he's not human), they're almost always going to end up being slightly overvalued. But you don't take them thinking they'll finish #2. You hope it, but you take them because you know they're guaranteed to finish among the best at their position. 

Talk to Jose Ramirez owners about what an early round bust really looks like.

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7 hours ago, AnonymousRob said:

You're arguing different things. Some people were definitely saying he probably wasn't going to be quite as good as last year, but that's different from saying he was going to bust. And so far he's been fine. Slightly disappointing, but not THAT far off pace that he couldn't be back on track for a monster season after one hot week. He isn't a bust even if he finishes the season at his current ranking. In fact, him him ranking so high despite the muted output thus far is WHY he was such a high pick. When you're the first pick after Trout (because he's not human), they're almost always going to end up being slightly overvalued. But you don't take them thinking they'll finish #2. You hope it, but you take them because you know they're guaranteed to finish among the best at their position. 

Talk to Jose Ramirez owners about what an early round bust really looks like.

 

Comparing Mookie to Jose Ramirez is comparing apples to oranges.  Ramirez hit .212 in the second half last year,and there were a ton of warning signs with him. I saw at least several magazines and articles prior to the season listing him as a bust or as overvalued. 

With Mookie, about the most negative things I heard anyone say about him prior to the season, was that Trout was better and that Mookie would regress a little bit from his 2018 totals (when he was the number one overall player despite missing a month) to his career averages (which would still be top 5 production).  Mookie is 26 years old, hits in a hitter's park and in a great lineup, was the #1 overall player two of the past three years, and even in his 2017 down year produced 2nd round value....I don't think there were any warning signs that this was coming. Correct me if you can find someone who claimed prior to the season that Mookie would be this disappointing and would not be a top 50 player this year.

And when I draft someone #2 overall, I don't expect to finish as a top 2 player but I expect at least 2nd round value, which Mookie still put up in his down 2017 season.  I viewed his 2017 totals as Mookie's floor, and I never thought he'd be worse than that this year.

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pretty sure I saw baez and bregman go from fringe top 50 players (ranking) to fringe first rds (rankings) in the last few days

I do think Mookie owners took a bigger hit in auction vs snake. Mookie going for 13-20$ bucks more than mid/late 1st rders ect. 

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3 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

And when I draft someone #2 overall, I don't expect to finish as a top 2 player but I expect at least 2nd round value, which Mookie still put up in his down 2017 season.  I viewed his 2017 totals as Mookie's floor, and I never thought he'd be worse than that this year.

It's June. Players are not metronomes. There's going to be some cold spells and some hot spells. Steals aside, he's largely on pace to meet or beat 2017. And he's still on pace for about 15 steals.

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