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Domingo German 2019 Outlook


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7 minutes ago, SpartyOn4 said:

What adjusted/estimated stats are you looking at? If there’s some that suggest German hasn’t been lucky, I’d love to learn about them.

He has a 3.85 xFIP. That ranks him 39th among qualified starters. His 3.86 SIERA ranks him 34th.

His Statcast xwOBA is .297, which ranks him 34th among pitchers with at least 150 batters faced (which for some reason is the only way to filter that leaderboard). That’s 61 points higher than his actual wOBA of .236. In that group, only Jon Lester and Felix Pena have a larger difference (ie are luckier).

A .225 BABIP is very unusual. Here’s a whole article about it. Basically as someone mentioned above, .270 is about the lowest you can reasonably expect over the long term.

I’d love to be wrong since I have German in dynasty, but xFIP and SIERA have been good to me over the years. In fact, half the reason I have German in dynasty is because last season he had a 3.94 xFIP and 3.68 SIERA, which convinced me to take a flier on him this offseason.

I don't actually care where he's ranked according to estimated stats. There's so much flawed in that  I also don't look much into them over a 9-game sample.

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This dude had a C or KC on his jersey instead of NY no one would care. Gonna go like this folks, good start, bad start, great start, rinse repeat fast forward to July 4.40 with 80 k's and 6 wins

German is having an excellent spring with a 1.54 ERA and 18/2 K/BB in 11 2/3 IP. Sounds like he will definitely be in the rotation with Severino out until May but what are his chances of sticking afte

Strict innings limit, which makes it an ideal way to use him this year.

43 minutes ago, MrBrown said:

I don't actually care where he's ranked according to estimated stats. There's so much flawed in that  I also don't look much into them over a 9-game sample.

 

And even then it's not like his estimated stats are bad. His xwOBA is a tick or two better than average and his xAVG and xSLG are right around average. He does a good job of limiting hard contact as well. I don't see him as a true ace, I still see him as more of an SP2, but he's been developing nicely and could make that transition sooner rather than later. 

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29 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

Where do you get SIERA stats?

If he finishes with an ERA in the 3.40-3.60 range with a 10 K/9 while piling up wins--a reasonable scenario--he can be a solid SP2 for this year.

SIERA is in Fangraphs, to the right under the Batted Ball section.

Anyway I agree with what you and others are saying here - he's showing SP3 skills, and with the Yankees helping him pile up the wins that should bump him up to SP2 range. And I think he has the stuff to keep improving. Obviously great value for whatever little investment it took to get him this season.

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4 hours ago, MrBrown said:

Yea this statement is just ridiculous.  KC and LAA are not bad offenses.  Neither has the CHW been either.

Easy big fella, no need for the condescending response.  First and foremost, I never said those offenses were "bad," only that they are not exactly powerhouse offenses that teams would fear.  I only offered that comment as a possible explanation as to why his results aren't matching up with the metrics that other posters are citing; if he had faced teams like the Astros, Red Sox (recent version) or Dodgers, his numbers might regress to what the metrics predict.  

I'm a die hard Yank fan, have him on my roster, and have watched every game he's pitched.  I believe he's 100% legit, and only expect a slight regression when he starts facing more powerful offenses (and I also agree that there aren't too many of those out there right now to worry about).

 

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2 hours ago, octapuss said:

He can beat the Orioles. Can he beat the rest of the league. No doubt he has had a nice start. When the big bats come to town will German have the same success?

 

I’m trying to sell high, his schedule has been so easy to start the year. I do think he’s good but not this good.

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He is also a candidate to be shut down early. Which is surprising at 26 years old, but apparently he hasn't thrown a full year. Last year he had a 5.57 ERA.

For you eagle eyes, what has changed and is it sustainable?

 

 

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21 minutes ago, octapuss said:

He is also a candidate to be shut down early. Which is surprising at 26 years old, but apparently he hasn't thrown a full year. Last year he had a 5.57 ERA.

For you eagle eyes, what has changed and is it sustainable?

 

 

According to a fangraphs article a few weeks ago he's been doing a better job of keeping the ball away from the center of the plate. Not enough has changed for me to think sub 3.00 is sustainable but he should be much better than a 5.50 guy going forward. I'd bet on something around 3.50 ROS. And that might be selling him short. 

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8 hours ago, octapuss said:

He is also a candidate to be shut down early. Which is surprising at 26 years old, but apparently he hasn't thrown a full year. Last year he had a 5.57 ERA.

For you eagle eyes, what has changed and is it sustainable?

 

 

 

Would they shut down their best or second best pitcher while trying to contend in a tough division? Weren't there similar concerns about Severino in 2017?

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On 5/24/2019 at 10:07 PM, Ace_King said:

 

Would they shut down their best or second best pitcher while trying to contend in a tough division? Weren't there similar concerns about Severino in 2017?

Yes, there was.  Honestly, while I understand the concerns, but I don't see it happening if he continues to pitch really good.  They won't be able to afford to, as I don't see them pulling away from the rest of the division even though they are doing this with about a third of their team.

Look at what happened with Buehler last season as the season went along.  He was a shutdown/innings management candidate basically all season, but they needed him badly enough late in the season that he kept pitching regularly.

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I'm sure they'd be skipping some starts here and there if they were able to.  Too many injuries in the rotation doesn't allow them to do that.  But he's 26 years old and I don't think they're going to baby him too much or shut him down at any point.

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[...]

I like the talent and his k/9 should continue to be great but he’s due for blowups against good teams and his era will probably be north of 4 ROS. 

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On 6/4/2019 at 4:19 PM, Jor357 said:

Selling high right . Not that I think he will implode ROS I just think now is the time to sell if you haven’t done so already . 

 

Hope people sold high before yesterday’s game. And now this news. 

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If the Yankees are trying to give their young starter some rest and limit his innings Dodgers style.   It will be 2 starts.  If his hip flexor is actually strained, that’s a lengthy absence that could linger all year (Xm radio).  

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