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Pablo Lopez 2019 Outlook


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13 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

He's good, it was a horrific start last time but this guy can pitch. I stuck with him and will keep believing-

 

He's had some inconsistencies but I think I'm fully on board now on him too. I rage cut him last week but got him back now.

 

Funny thing is, if you take out his disaster against the Mets last week, his ERA is sitting at a pretty 3.40

 

On top of that, even with that awful start, his FIP is at 3.54 and xFIP is at 3.67

 

The 49 K in 48 IP is solid too. 

 

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Agreed.  at Atlanta, at Cinci, Cubs next 3.  Won’t be easy.  Just have to hope some of these new cool hip managers decide to rotate their losers in for their 23-28 year old studs who might be tired af

I'd say somewhere in the range of:  

Wells Dusenbury‏Verified account @DuseReport FollowFollow @DuseReport More Pablo Lopez putting together another strong outing – 5 scorel

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I like this guy a lot, but had him in my lineup for that dreadful start and am terrified he'll do it again. One of those situations where it's really hard for me to trust him again this year... but there's no denying there is talent and value to be had there.

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1 hour ago, nlm said:

I like this guy a lot, but had him in my lineup for that dreadful start and am terrified he'll do it again. One of those situations where it's really hard for me to trust him again this year... but there's no denying there is talent and value to be had there.

I think, in order to trust him, he has to give a good outing on the road. That seems to have been the key factor between his gems and stinkers

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  • 2 weeks later...

Just missed out on the W last night, but of course it was against a bad offense and in his friendly home office...chart was good:

FB- located/commanded it well, tons of vertical movement, averaged 94 MPH and topped at 96, threw 48--37 strikes with 26 swings and 5 whiffs

CH- sat 86 MPH, threw down 23--12 strikes with 11 swings on it and 1 whiff

CU- encouraged with it's usage here, complements his velo and vert run spectrum very well, sat 79.5 MPH with great horizontal breakage, spun up 15--6 strikes with 5 swings and 2 whiffs on it...

Next week is a scheduled 2 step with an @MIL to start off the week, then back to MIA for the Braves...do you feel lucky??

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12 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Just missed out on the W last night, but of course it was against a bad offense and in his friendly home office...chart was good:

FB- located/commanded it well, tons of vertical movement, averaged 94 MPH and topped at 96, threw 48--37 strikes with 26 swings and 5 whiffs

CH- sat 86 MPH, threw down 23--12 strikes with 11 swings on it and 1 whiff

CU- encouraged with it's usage here, complements his velo and vert run spectrum very well, sat 79.5 MPH with great horizontal breakage, spun up 15--6 strikes with 5 swings and 2 whiffs on it...

Next week is a scheduled 2 step with an @MIL to start off the week, then back to MIA for the Braves...do you feel lucky??

 

I do not, BUT, if he does decent @ MIL might consider him for the Braves start, i wanna see a little more [...]

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Just now, Theschill38 said:

This is his 2nd great road start, the other was @CLE. Every time I added and started this guy he was terrible, and every great game he has pitched he's been on the wire. WTF do I do now?!

 

I must have missed the one @CLE. But he has struggled on the road mightily this season.

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Senor Pablo with a fire start/chart last night, he's 23 without a ton of minors experience, so we need to accept some ebb and flow with him but the stuff is there:

FB- sat his usual 94 MPH, popping 96s, great vert action, threw 43--26 strikes with 15 swings and 2 whiffs

CH- solid spin/fade, averaged 86 on it, tossed 28--23 strikes with 22 swings! and 5 whiffers

CU- been very encouraged with his upped usage here, great horizontal action that compliments his arsenal and at 79 MPH also important for his velo spectrum, he spun up 17--11 for strikes with 8 cuts and 3 whiffs, his release point is very comparable in all his offerings too, so very difficult for batters to sit on off-speed here.

SI- just 4 at 94+MPH, 2 strikes

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17 minutes ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Senor Pablo with a fire start/chart last night, he's 23 without a ton of minors experience, so we need to accept some ebb and flow with him but the stuff is there:

FB- sat his usual 94 MPH, popping 96s, great vert action, threw 43--26 strikes with 15 swings and 2 whiffs

CH- solid spin/fade, averaged 86 on it, tossed 28--23 strikes with 22 swings! and 5 whiffers

CU- been very encouraged with his upped usage here, great horizontal action that compliments his arsenal and at 79 MPH also important for his velo spectrum, he spun up 17--11 for strikes with 8 cuts and 3 whiffs, his release point is very comparable in all his offerings too, so very difficult for batters to sit on off-speed here.

SI- just 4 at 94+MPH, 2 strikes

thoughts on plist's conclusions about him from last night's start? they seemed to have watched a different game

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Just now, ASHLANDARROWS1992 said:

 

going off memory i think they have him as a top 60 starter for the ROS

86th...behind the likes of Felix Pena, Jose Urena and yes, Trent Thorton. It's odd, as they were pretty high on Pablo originally too. I like their work, but it is super reactionary imo.

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1 minute ago, ST. STEVEN said:

86th...behind the likes of Felix Pena, Jose Urena and yes, Trent Thorton. It's odd, as they were pretty high on Pablo originally too. I like their work, but it is super reactionary imo.

 

yeah, just double checked it...did see some site in the last few days where he was top 60...could possibly have been razzball or someone like that

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22 minutes ago, FritzLn said:

thoughts on plist's conclusions about him from last night's start? they seemed to have watched a different game

Yeah that is pretty clear. I think they make fine points though too...He does have to be pretty pin-point with his FB/CH combo, but his stuff has a lot of run/movement too. And if you don't watch him, the numbers won't show that arm angle and how well he hides the ball. Also his extension -coupled with the previously mentioned points- allow the FB to play up quite well. The on thing I guess I would really disagree on is the CU...I think it is developing pretty well and gives him a legit 3rd pitch in his mix. I guess we will see? Like I said, I do expect inconsistencies moving forward...but his stuff and that home park are big assets and I think he will be a top50 type of SP ROS.

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Yeah, another very encouraging performance and good looking chart:

FB- was really darting around, sat 94.5 MPH and hit 97, threw 39--24 for strikes with 16 swings and 6 whiffs

CH- sat 86 MPH and had it's tumble working, threw 24--18 for strikes with 15 cuts on it and 5 whiffers

CU- I continue to contend it's more than a 'show-me' pitch and he continues to work with it more and more too, very nice shape and horizontal movements to compliment the vert actions on his FB/CH primaries...he spun up a season high 25--16 for strikes with 12 hacks on it and 2 whiffs

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2 hours ago, ST. STEVEN said:

Yeah, another very encouraging performance and good looking chart:

FB- was really darting around, sat 94.5 MPH and hit 97, threw 39--24 for strikes with 16 swings and 6 whiffs

CH- sat 86 MPH and had it's tumble working, threw 24--18 for strikes with 15 cuts on it and 5 whiffers

CU- I continue to contend it's more than a 'show-me' pitch and he continues to work with it more and more too, very nice shape and horizontal movements to compliment the vert actions on his FB/CH primaries...he spun up a season high 25--16 for strikes with 12 hacks on it and 2 whiffs

 

@ST. STEVEN

I haven't had a chance to watch his last 3 starts but had watched the majority of the ones before that.   I thought he was struggling due to lack of fastball command AND solely working lower in the zone.  The command likely would be a longer term issue to fix but just by going up the zone it would allow everything else to play up.   

How have the last 3 starts been in these two areas? 

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54 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

@ST. STEVEN

I haven't had a chance to watch his last 3 starts but had watched the majority of the ones before that.   I thought he was struggling due to lack of fastball command AND solely working lower in the zone.  The command likely would be a longer term issue to fix but just by going up the zone it would allow everything else to play up.   

How have the last 3 starts been in these two areas? 

It's a very solid point. At least the plotting for his last start did not show much work in the upper quadrant of the zone...he went up there a few times and had pitches well within the strike zone called balls--at least 3-4 that I can spot on his chart. It still appears -once again just the last start- that he is pounding the lower zones with far more frequency...esp on the black too. If he can continue pin pointing the CU and esp CH in those lower areas, we could see a sizable swinging K spike if he goes to that high zone FB...some sequencing tweaking and he could take a pretty big leap forward here.

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  • 2 weeks later...
1 minute ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

what you never want to hear with a pitcher: the vague "shoulder injury"

 

No word on severity but shoulders are never good. :(

Could also be a fake DL stint to limit innings too, which also would lead to very little news on the severity. 

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1 minute ago, mavsfan23 said:

Could also be a fake DL stint to limit innings too, which also would lead to very little news on the severity. 

 

That would be nice but I dont think thats something the marlins do. Urena had a vague injury and was placed on the 60-day DL a few days later. I hope Pablos outlook is much better. It sucks but all we can do is wait. 

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