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2019 March/April Closer Thread


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15 minutes ago, jseay65 said:

I tried to post this yesterday, but the link was jacked up. This article from Jan 3rd offers great insight into the changes that Rogers made mid-season 2018 that have transformed him into a dominant RP. I think he's going to be worth rostering for the Ks and ratios alone, while also being in the mix for saves.

  Rogers development of a slider midway through last year led to a 1.34 ERA, 0.70 WHIP and 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings over his final 49 appearances.

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33 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Why are people so down on Box?  He had like one bad month or two out of the past couple of years?

 

He’s a Royal and doesn’t clearly have the job. Couple that with his high walk rate and ability to blow saves. 

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4 hours ago, GrapeJuice said:

 

I understand the analytics aspect of the committee theory. My point is that there's a psychological dynamic to it that has been completely ignored. The fact that it can't be quantified has led it to be completely ignored as though it doesn't exist. That's incorrect.

 

I have to think that A) the psychological factor of "The Closer" is not all that significant, at least not more so than using your best pitchers in the highest leverage situations.  And, of course, 2) no one has Mo Rivera.  Heck, hardly anyone even has a Kenley Jansen anymore.

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12 minutes ago, Stickfig13 said:

 

He’s a Royal and doesn’t clearly have the job. Couple that with his high walk rate and ability to blow saves. 

Could an unsustainable 73% LOB and 18.4% HR/FB last year be part of the problem?  He was still striking guys out at a good clip.

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

Why are people so down on Box?  He had like one bad month or two out of the past couple of years?

I had him all of last year and was not confident once when he came in to pitch. He is up there trying to fool hitters and if they don't bite the fun starts. 

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4 minutes ago, duke of queens said:

I had him all of last year and was not confident once when he came in to pitch. He is up there trying to fool hitters and if they don't bite the fun starts. 

I hear you...but didn’t you just describe all pitchers?

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45 minutes ago, bbythepier said:

Did the RB threads in the football forum also have pages of this psycho-babble as teams went from bell cows to committees?

This.  

If these guys were so mentally weak they most likely wouldn't be one of the 750 people who get to call themselves pros.  It's usually a skill decline or a $ issue turned into a physc babble narrative by people who never made it out of high school ranks,  or wear suits and spew buzzwords for a living.  

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37 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Could an unsustainable 73% LOB and 18.4% HR/FB last year be part of the problem?  He was still striking guys out at a good clip.

Is it though? From 2014 to 2017 he gave up 2 HRs and 5 XBHs to change ups vs LHH.  Last year he gave up 4 HRs and 7 XBH. Something was clearly wrong with his change up and he got tattooed by lefties

You just can't make it as a full time closer if you can't get the opposite handed hitters out. He had 16 BBs to 26 Ks vs lefties. He was awful and it wasn't bad luck.

 

I'm okay with gambling he fixed his change up problem. The slowly decline FB velocity isn't helping either (91 MPH is his lowest mark)

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21 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Is it though? From 2014 to 2017 he gave up 2 HRs and 5 XBHs to change ups vs LHH.  Last year he gave up 4 HRs and 7 XBH. Something was clearly wrong with his change up and he got tattooed by lefties

You just can't make it as a full time closer if you can't get the opposite handed hitters out. He had 16 BBs to 26 Ks vs lefties. He was awful and it wasn't bad luck.

 

I'm okay with gambling he fixed his change up problem. The slowly decline FB velocity isn't helping either (91 MPH is his lowest mark)

The problem, though, is that Box’s change doesn’t need “fixing.”  Last year, it posted a 13.7 SwStr%, a 38.2% chase rate, and a .173/.215/.400 slash against.  So nothing wrong there.

Maybe it was his sequencing?  Arm fatigue?  I honestly don’t know - but I’m willing to think it was an aberration. He also still has plenty of separation from his FB with it even throwing in the low-90s.

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IMO when the new rule changes take effect we will likely see less situational baseball and more real closers again. Hell, this might have been pushed for by the MLBPA to bolster RP dollar values (currently no way to value and pay swingmen appropriately). #conspiracytheory

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IF the crew does sign Kimbrel then all the speculating is moot, but I would not bother with Jeffress--outside of deep leagues with IL spots. He didn't look right at the end of last year and was way off all of ST, shoulders are scariest (obv) too. I also wouldn't bother with Williams or esp Barnes either. If you are hunting deep, then Junior Guerra is the one I'd look at. He's up at least a few ticks in the pen and has a wipe-out splitter and solid off-speed pitches as well. Council seems to trust him already.

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34 minutes ago, FantasyGeek2018 said:

Jeffress will be the guy once healthy if they don't sign Kimbrell.

Not a given both on the health and skills front.  I highly doubt they would have screwed with Hader's intended role unless they weren't set on Jeffress ability/health vis a vis full time closer.

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2 hours ago, cyberer said:

IMO when the new rule changes take effect we will likely see less situational baseball and more real closers again. Hell, this might have been pushed for by the MLBPA to bolster RP dollar values (currently no way to value and pay swingmen appropriately). #conspiracytheory

What are the rule changes and when will they take effect? I thought these rule changes were supposed to help increase offense

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3 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

I don't think the rule change will save "the closer" at all.  Just endanger the boring left-handed specialist.  And it isn't until next year anyway.

We'll see.  If a guy can't come in the middle of the ninth, then it forces a team to either extend a pitcher more than one inning more than they would have otherwise done or re-evaluate the efficacy of designating a one inning guy notwithstanding any labels.

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