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LeSean McCoy 2019 Outlook


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High stakes leagues have the same losers, just with more money.

Duke Johnson owners right now..  

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10 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Where would people peg his value now? I’d have it in the 60-80 range. That’s where all the dart throw RBs seem to go. 

 

That is a little high for my taste. I think 11th round and up in 10 team league is fair value for McCoy 

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30 minutes ago, HarambeLives said:

 

I wouldn’t say it’s blown out of proportion. It’s a fact, and after shady’s performance last year a lot of teams believe he’s washed up. DWill wasn’t signed to be the backup, he was signed to be the new bellcow that they could afford for cheap. He was signed post Hunt and Ward injury. 

 

He joined the Chiefs in March 2018 and was extended after starting 2 games post Hunt/Ware.  After only 2 starts, do you really think the Chiefs extended him with the idea that he'd be the bellcow?  That seems farfetched. 

Something can be a fact and still be blown out of proportion.  

I doubt any team thinks McCoy is washed up.  Two superbowl contenders just had a bidding war for him.  I think McCoy can still be effective, but not in a workhorse role.

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10 minutes ago, Chargers88 said:

 

That is a little high for my taste. I think 11th round and up in 10 team league is fair value for McCoy 

 

In my yahoo pro leagues, McCoy was being drafted in the 12/13th round when he was with Buffalo.  There's no way you're getting him in the 11th. 

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25 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Where would people peg his value now? I’d have it in the 60-80 range. That’s where all the dart throw RBs seem to go. 

I took him at the end of the 8th round in my most competitive 12 teamer. Pick 95

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9 minutes ago, wekko368 said:

 

He joined the Chiefs in March 2018 and was extended after starting 2 games post Hunt/Ware.  After only 2 starts, do you really think the Chiefs extended him with the idea that he'd be the bellcow?  That seems farfetched. 

Something can be a fact and still be blown out of proportion.  

I doubt any team thinks McCoy is washed up.  Two superbowl contenders just had a bidding war for him.  I think McCoy can still be effective, but not in a workhorse role.

 

After putting up 100 yds from scrimmage in 2 of those games, don’t forget to include the disclaimer *bellcow for cheap* from what it looks like anyone can flourish in this system. And it’s not blown out of proportion; 3mil guaranteed is nothing to shrug at if you’re already paying a guy only 5 mil over 2 years to be the #1 and spent a 6th rd pick on a RB (nothing mind blowing but still something) 

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15 minutes ago, HarambeLives said:

After putting up 100 yds from scrimmage in 2 of those games, don’t forget to include the disclaimer *bellcow for cheap* from what it looks like anyone can flourish in this system. And it’s not blown out of proportion; 3mil guaranteed is nothing to shrug at if you’re already paying a guy only 5 mil over 2 years to be the #1 and spent a 6th rd pick on a RB (nothing mind blowing but still something) 

 

Didn't the Chiefs lose both of those games?  

Yes, it's blown out of proportion.  $3m isn't an outrageous salary for a timeshare RB, especially not when the signing occurred a week before the start of the season.  Tevin Coleman, Adrian Peterson, and Gore all signed for similar amounts.  

Also, if the Chiefs believed that any RB could flourish in their system, then they definitely wouldn't commit to a "bellcow for cheap".  They'd get a stable of cheap RBs.  

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4 hours ago, Ace_King said:

A lot of people are calling him washed up. If so, why did he look better than Singletary, the fantasy world's darling de jour?

 

Didn’t play week 1 of preseason 

 

 

Week 2 L McCoy had 4 carries for 6 yards and a 1 yd goal line TD.

2 receptions 11 yards. Complete garbage here 

 

week 3-  6 carries for 37 yards, 21 coming on one play. Meaning the other 5 carries are ho hum 3.2 yards per carry.

 

 

Bottom line is buffalo cut him because he wasn’t good enough any longer.  They tried to trade him and no one was biting. He was a malcontent when he was traded to buffalo and showed last year what his ceiling now is. Buffalo wanted to move on with a rookie and professional Frank Gore. 

 

How long do you think the Chargers would keep him if/when Gordon returns. He was insurance for them, just as he is for KC.  Yet Reid will let him stick around for a shot at a ring because of their history! That is why he chose KC.  He isn’t going to be relevant by week 6. Clearly on the downside of his career.  And folks are pointing at this preseason as something? That 62 yrs catch and run by Williams is more impressive than anything Shady has done in 3 years.  

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44 minutes ago, wekko368 said:

 

Didn't the Chiefs lose both of those games?  

Yes, it's blown out of proportion.  $3m isn't an outrageous salary for a timeshare RB, especially not when the signing occurred a week before the start of the season.  Tevin Coleman, Adrian Peterson, and Gore all signed for similar amounts.  

Also, if the Chiefs believed that any RB could flourish in their system, then they definitely wouldn't commit to a "bellcow for cheap".  They'd get a stable of cheap RBs.  

 

Sure did but he still brought in a total 3 TDs in those 2 games, 3mil sure isn’t much, but you leave out exigent circumstances such as this being Reid’s old go to back, the system/scheme in this high powered offense. Where are Peterson & Coleman listed on their respective depth charts? I’m not saying 3 mil is a lot, I’m saying it seems a lot for a guy just cut for a rookie and Gore after being their #1 and landing with his favorite coach. 

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1 hour ago, Sgt. Ryan said:

 

Didn’t play week 1 of preseason 

 

 

Week 2 L McCoy had 4 carries for 6 yards and a 1 yd goal line TD.

2 receptions 11 yards. Complete garbage here 

 

week 3-  6 carries for 37 yards, 21 coming on one play. Meaning the other 5 carries are ho hum 3.2 yards per carry.

Not only do you use preseason stats to argue McCoy is bad but you then proceed to remove a run from those stats and pretend it doesn’t exist. This is as far as I got in this post.

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2 hours ago, Sgt. Ryan said:

That 62 yrs catch and run by Williams is more impressive than anything Shady has done in 3 years.  

 

Even setting aside McCoy's 75 yard TD in your isolated time frame...

In the last 3 years, McCoy has amassed 3,961 yards from scrimmage and 25 TDs.
That's more than D.Williams will ever see in his entire career combined.

I don't know how you define impressive; and I don't care.

If you want to hype up Williams for 2019, by all means, be my guest.  But don't come in here and pretend like McCoy hasn't exceeded expectations given his environment for the past 3 years.  He's well outplayed his team, situation, and age.

I believe in the KC offense and I believe in the Andy Reid system.  I wouldn't touch D.Williams in the 2nd or even 3rd round.  I think McCoy in the late 6th, early-mid 7th is fair. (12 team ppr)
Current RBs in the 6th:
Miles Sanders (likely another 3-4headed monster in PHI, DND for me)
Austin Ekeler (guaranteed to lose his job at some point, might even be a timeshare with Jackson for any games he gets to play)
Tarik Cohen (I fully support Cohen over McCoy in PPR.)

Current RBs in the 7th:

Darrius Guice (Will he ever get/stay healthy?  If so, is AP really going to just disappear? WSH not going anywhere this year)
Darwin Thompson (lol, seems fine to me, this is where you take a swing on a cheap KC back)
Latavius Murray (Slower, worse hands, less talented, more TD dependent version of Ingram, who was only an RB3 in this offense last year)
Kenyan Drake (If you believe in Drake is a bellcow over Ballage, I'd understand.  Otherwise it's a similar split to KC on a team likely to score half the yards and points)

After that in the 8th, we're looking at pure handcuffs like Pollard, Breida, Penny, Henderson, and then Singletary who's another time share back likely to get vultured by Gore often enough to make him useless, but ADP should be self-correcting 1-2 rounds higher this weekend after the trades IMO.

I think that's the proper range for McCoy.  Realistically, if I were drafting today, Williams would have to fall to the 4th round for me to even consider him.
Not because I don't think he can be the lead back, or that he won't produce in that role... not because I think McCoy sends him to the bench, but because it's just too much uncertainty, combined with a small track record.  I'd take Fournette, Carson, and Sony over him without hesitation.

Just my .02

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3 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

I believe in the KC offense and I believe in the Andy Reid system.  I wouldn't touch D.Williams in the 2nd or even 3rd round.  I think McCoy in the late 6th, early-mid 7th is fair. (12 team ppr)
Current RBs in the 6th:
Miles Sanders (likely another 3-4headed monster in PHI, DND for me)
Austin Ekeler (guaranteed to lose his job at some point, might even be a timeshare with Jackson for any games he gets to play)
Tarik Cohen (I fully support Cohen over McCoy in PPR.)

Current RBs in the 7th:

Darrius Guice (Will he ever get/stay healthy?  If so, is AP really going to just disappear? WSH not going anywhere this year)
Darwin Thompson (lol, seems fine to me, this is where you take a swing on a cheap KC back)
Latavius Murray (Slower, worse hands, less talented, more TD dependent version of Ingram, who was only an RB3 in this offense last year)
Kenyan Drake (If you believe in Drake is a bellcow over Ballage, I'd understand.  Otherwise it's a similar split to KC on a team likely to score half the yards and points)

After that in the 8th, we're looking at pure handcuffs like Pollard, Breida, Penny, Henderson, and then Singletary who's another time share back likely to get vultured by Gore often enough to make him useless, but ADP should be self-correcting 1-2 rounds higher this weekend after the trades IMO.

I think that's the proper range for McCoy.  Realistically, if I were drafting today, Williams would have to fall to the 4th round for me to even consider him.
Not because I don't think he can be the lead back, or that he won't produce in that role... not because I think McCoy sends him to the bench, but because it's just too much uncertainty, combined with a small track record.  I'd take Fournette, Carson, and Sony over him without hesitation.

Just my .02

 

This is solid reasoning and how I feel, admittedly as someone who went hard to draft Damien & Darwin this year prior to the McCoy trade. I have my main auction league draft remaining, and I look at the KC backfield as is:
1. McCoy was signed to get action. Reid is a believer in him, and $3 million in guaranteed cash signals playing time. That being said, I'm confident he's going to get overdrafted in my league and I won't be willing to pay that price for McCoy. 
2. Damien's value slides. . . I had been begging him late 2nd/early 3rd and I think he drops a full round here. This isn't a slam on either of these backs talent, simply that opportunity is going to decrease in a potent, RB-friendly offense. 
3. Darwin Thompson's value is still unchanged. I have also gunned for those rookie/high upside backup RBs in potent offenses as draft targets, ESPECIALLY in keeper leagues (Conner was my 'must draft' player last year), and I see him as having the ability to overtake Damien, either due to talent or Damien injury, AND after a one year McCoy contract, may not have to compete with him either. Bonus points if stars align for this year, but at his current price, I'm still game to roll the dice in redraft leagues, though I'd probably shift to Darrell Henderson first, whereas I previously preferred Darwin. Still like both of these guys over Singletary or Mattison. 

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no debating that this foo' absolutely merits 6th/7th rd scooping - for those with upcoming drafts consuder that a gift.

it's the system ... FatMan doesn't bring a cat like Shady in just to wind his effin' watch - there will be legit burn here. 

outstanding flex, very good RB2 - no brainer at that stage of the draft. 

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7 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Where would people peg his value now? I’d have it in the 60-80 range. That’s where all the dart throw RBs seem to go. 

I took him at 85 overall last night (PPR) and got some groans from a few owners, so he most likely would have gone shortly after that if I didn't take him there.

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6 hours ago, HarambeLives said:

 

Sure did but he still brought in a total 3 TDs in those 2 games, 3mil sure isn’t much, but you leave out exigent circumstances such as this being Reid’s old go to back, the system/scheme in this high powered offense. Where are Peterson & Coleman listed on their respective depth charts? I’m not saying 3 mil is a lot, I’m saying it seems a lot for a guy just cut for a rookie and Gore after being their #1 and landing with his favorite coach. 

 

The Bills didn't cut McCoy in favor of Singletary.  They cut McCoy to save $6m.  

I'm assuming Peterson/Coleman are listed as starters, but why does that matter?  Everyone here cares about usage....not whether a guy starts.  Adrian Peterson is a free agent in half of my yahoo pro leagues, and Guice is always drafted by the end of the 10th round.

Additionally, Coleman was signed to be part of a RBBC with McKinnon and Breida.  His $4.25m/year contract clearly wasn't meant to be "bellcow money".

 

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