LeSean McCoy 2019 Outlook

[9amest 160]

5 hours ago, plevaaaaaa said:

Lesean got dropped in my league during the warm-up shenanigan BS. What % FAAB should be spent on him going into week 4 as a waiver wire pick up?

honestly I would go 30-50%, you don't see the potential lead back on a top 2 offense on the waiver too often

[Brownsfan74 889]

15 minutes ago, 9amest said:

honestly I would go 30-50%, you don't see the potential lead back on a top 2 offense on the waiver too often

 

Depends on your league size and how many bench spots you have.  In a 12 teamer with 7 bench slots, most of the good players are on teams already and waiver wire guys are not that good, even if they get the opportunity (see: Wayne Gallman).  In a league like that, I would go 50% because....who are you waiting for to emerge?  The smaller the league (or the fewer bench slots), the less I would pay because there's more of a chance later in the year for a big pickup to come out.

Plus, as we saw with Darrel Williams, the main guy in this backfield will be a stud, and it certainly looks like McCoy is trending towards that guy.

I don't know what your FAAB strategy is, but typically you want to spend a lot of it early in the season because you get that player for more games.

Edited September 23, 2019 by Brownsfan74

[Dexter75 482]

3 hours ago, 9amest said:

honestly I would go 30-50%, you don't see the potential lead back on a top 2 offense on the waiver too often

 

Week 1: Williams-45 snaps (66%) 13 carries, 6 receptions (19 touches) McCoy-20 snaps (29%) 10 carries, 1 reception (11 touches)

Week 2: Williams-39 snaps (51%) 9 carries, 3 receptions (12 touches) McCoy-31 snaps (41%) 11 carries, 3 receptions (14 touches) 

Week 3: McCoy 26 snaps (38%) 8 carries, 3 receptions (11 touches) Darrel Williams-37 snaps (54%) 9 carries, 5 receptions (14 touches) 

 

There is no lead back, this is a RBBC with two backs splitting the bulk of the workload, just as Reid said he would use when asked last month. 

 

Edited September 24, 2019 by Dexter75

[PizzaBeerFF 760]

Things are looking encouraging. He looked great on the td carries. Imagine if they rest him a little this week he can let ankle heal. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up lead dog. It is surprising because DWilliams looked like a lock. Far from it now.

[Asian Sensation 2,074]

On 9/3/2019 at 10:43 AM, Dexter75 said:

 I took McCoy is the 9th as an insurance policy and before anyone was willing to, but anyone thinking McCoy is going to do anything significant is nuts. This isn't 2013 any longer. McCoy is coming off 5 injuries and his worst season. Anyone thinking he's going to be seeing 15-20 touches a game and rushing for 1,000 yards is dreaming. Williams is the starter and McCoy is the backup who will see maybe 4-5 touches a game, thats it. 

 

On 9/3/2019 at 3:37 PM, Dexter75 said:

 

Reid on McCoy yesterday...

“We’ll see what he can pick up in a short period of time here, how comfortable he is with it, and then we’ll go from there,” Reid said, via ESPN.com. “He’s a pretty sharp kid so I think we’ll be OK. He’s been practicing and playing in these preseason games so the conditioning part is not an issue. It’s just becoming familiar with the protections and the run game part. This is different than what we did in Philadelphia. There will be some familiar things but it’s quite a bit different. He’s going to have to get in and learn and then we’ll just see how that goes.

"We'll see how it goes" is something you say about a guy who's going to be a backup and play a limited role, not a guy you are bringing in to be a lead back or even a guy to split workload with another back. Keep telling yourself McCoy will have a big role on this team though, like you have any clue. 

 

[ZappB 656]

Rotoworld's last blurb says McCoy is on the RB 2/3 borderline, but at this point we're all confident with him being an RB2, right?

[Rainyy 1,624]

13 minutes ago, Dexter75 said:

Well I also own McCoy 

 

And I’m Queen Elizabeth II. 

[WaiverLooter 931]

1 hour ago, ZappB said:

Rotoworld's last blurb says McCoy is on the RB 2/3 borderline, but at this point we're all confident with him being an RB2, right?

 

I think the borderline is a decent call. His touches are still somewhat lower than comparable backs in the RB2 conversation. To get to 12+ pts, he’s looking at needing a td. For a normal RB2, I would think 12 pts ppr is attainable based on volume alone. The good news is that his volume should be trending up so he could very well be a RB2 in a couple of weeks.

[TheINC 500]

1 hour ago, ZappB said:

Rotoworld's last blurb says McCoy is on the RB 2/3 borderline, but at this point we're all confident with him being an RB2, right?

I think as long as Dwill is out for the time being, and even when he returns, RB2 seems like the right classification.  I'll be rolling him out this week (if he's playing w Dwill out again) probably ahead of Kerryon and Fournette based on his upside even with limited touches. 

[meverett85 342]

None of the KC backs are RB2s IMO. When all our healthy, Williams and McCoy seem more like flex type players in standard 10 team leagues. Now if one of them were to be injured for an extended period of time...

KC and SF are frustrating situations due to all of the talent in the backfield. Can't trade them (nobody interested), can't drop them....and would anybody really be shocked if Darwin is the main guy by the end of season? Just a crazy amount of variables....

 

[Mathew Berry 185]

How can anyone be this high on him after he broke down after 2 weeks in a limited roll and then re-aggravated his injury in week 3 and couldn’t even finish the game?  

[TheINC 500]

3 minutes ago, Mathew Berry said:

How can anyone be this high on him after he broke down after 2 weeks in a limited roll and then re-aggravated his injury in week 3 and couldn’t even finish the game?  

I dunno, 20pts in standard is pretty good for 3 quarters...

[Gohawks 10,166]

7 minutes ago, Mathew Berry said:

How can anyone be this high on him after he broke down after 2 weeks in a limited roll and then re-aggravated his injury in week 3 and couldn’t even finish the game?  

Username checks out

[Gohawks 10,166]

4 hours ago, PizzaBeerFF said:

Things are looking encouraging. He looked great on the td carries. Imagine if they rest him a little this week he can let ankle heal. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up lead dog. It is surprising because DWilliams looked like a lock. Far from it now.

Williams did not look like a lock. Ever. At all. Williams was the furthest thing from a lock going in the top 50.

[SharkSwimmer 4,951]

Matthew Berry is probably hoping the Chiefs pick up Alfred Morris.

As for McCoy, the concern would be that he is not close to 100% healthy.  It turns out a running back needs to use his ankles to play that position.

[kraftwrk_5 656]

If McCoy’s healthy, he’s an RB2 ROS, period. Darrel Williams will be the change of pace guy and probably flexable most weeks. Damien isn’t getting his job back, and Darwin will only be useful as a Dynasty League stash and if there are multiple injuries ahead of him.

[BGDDYKWL 1,130]

This backfield is an absolute mess, which is really a shame cause we saw what a mediocre RB did with volume to close out last year. If DWill is out McCoy is a RB2 with upside, but I think it's naive to say DWill has lost his job. McCoy hasn't exactly run away with it. If the entire backfield is healthy I could see this settling with no one being startable. 

[9amest 160]

10 hours ago, Dexter75 said:

 

Week 1: Williams-45 snaps (66%) 13 carries, 6 receptions (19 touches) McCoy-20 snaps (29%) 10 carries, 1 reception (11 touches)

Week 2: Williams-39 snaps (51%) 9 carries, 3 receptions (12 touches) McCoy-31 snaps (41%) 11 carries, 3 receptions (14 touches) 

Week 3: McCoy 26 snaps (38%) 8 carries, 3 receptions (11 touches) Darrel Williams-37 snaps (54%) 9 carries, 5 receptions (14 touches) 

 

There is no lead back, this is a RBBC with two backs splitting the bulk of the workload, just as Reid said he would use when asked last month. 

 

Lol, this troll is still here. Keyword is POTENTIAL lead back, forget snap percentages shady just had the best individual game of any chiefs RB this season. 6.8 YPC coupled with 2 TDs on only 11 touches, pretty safe to assume that sort of efficiency warrants additional usage. This man also juked marlon humphrey down to his knees as an added bonus. 

[the holy one 147]

3 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

This backfield is an absolute mess, which is really a shame cause we saw what a mediocre RB did with volume to close out last year. If DWill is out McCoy is a RB2 with upside, but I think it's naive to say DWill has lost his job. McCoy hasn't exactly run away with it. If the entire backfield is healthy I could see this settling with no one being startable. 

 

11 touches for McCoy and 14 for a guy named Darrel Williams is not really encouraging. I'm selling McCoy.

[affliction 2,172]

20 hours ago, FreakFries said:

Excepting the play where he tripped, I am confused as to why this doesn’t  look good for a guy on a sprained ankle:

 

 

 

He re aggravated his ankle and before that was slow getting up after every tackle. He clearly was going off pure adrenaline and was not 100%. When the camera zoomed in on his face you could tell he was uncomfortable. 

Edited September 24, 2019 by affliction

[yanksman 3,781]

How can anyone watch those highlights and not think hes the back to own? Williams WISHES he can run the ball like that.

[FreakFries 1,398]

1 hour ago, affliction said:

He re aggravated his ankle and before that was slow getting up after every tackle. He clearly was going off pure adrenaline and was not 100%. When the camera zoomed in on his face you could tell he was uncomfortable. 

 

So the question seems to be how long until his ankle is right? 

[Brownsfan74 889]

1 hour ago, FreakFries said:

 

So the question seems to be how long until his ankle is right? 

 

Yeah.  That's the issue.  He's gonna keep running on it.

I think he ends up playing through it and all of us will be wondering how many carries he gets until he's healthy.  Hopefully not too long - Mixon had a sprained ankle and was ok in literally 1 week.

[Brownsfan74 889]

If any of these backs start to get 70% of the work, he is an RB1.  These are the total fantasy points for the KC backfield each week (standard scoring) -

Week 1 vs. Jags - 22.1

Week 2 vs. Oak - 8.0

Week 3 vs. Bal - 31.7

If the lead back gets 70% of these points, he would have scored 15.5, 5.6, and 22.2 for a total of 43.3 points and an average of 14.4 points per game.  It would rank 9th overall, just behind Zeke and ahead of David Johnson.

As it is, on a partial workload with a bad ankle, McCoy is still the #18 RB in fantasy, so he's already an RB2.

 

 

Edited September 24, 2019 by Brownsfan74

[KennyWoo 3,323]

7 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

If any of these backs start to get 70% of the work, he is an RB1. 

 

If McCoy gets 70% he absolutely is. Because he has the talent to match the role. If he gets to 70%, the only thing that's going to take it away from him is injury.

Other lower talent options are not necessarily top 12 guys because they will always have the risk of getting benched when their JAG starts showing.