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New England Patriots 2019 Outlook


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I hope AB destroys the Patriots from within. They deserve that with all their cheating over the years... 

 

Extremely fishy how everything played out so quickly and how quickly he was signed... tampering???

AB is a head case, but calling his GM a racist name and threatening to punch him, seems too far fetched from his usual mental health issues. Looks more like he was trying to force his release to get to the Pats. 

 

I used to to like the patriots, before all their scandals trying to do anything to get rings. What good is it to get rings with asterisks next to them??? 

So what happens when BB game plans a heavy run scheme against an opponent and AB doesn’t get many passes? Or are the Pats gonna force him 10 throws a game no matter what, to keep him happy, in which they will be playing by AB’s rules? If brown doesn’t freak out and attack everyone when he’s unhappy, it will be telling how bad he wanted to be on the patriots...

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17 minutes ago, Raynestorm said:

I hope AB destroys the Patriots from within. They deserve that with all their cheating over the years... 

 

Extremely fishy how everything played out so quickly and how quickly he was signed... tampering???

AB is a head case, but calling his GM a racist name and threatening to punch him, seems too far fetched from his usual mental health issues. Looks more like he was trying to force his release to get to the Pats. 

 

I used to to like the patriots, before all their scandals trying to do anything to get rings. What good is it to get rings with asterisks next to them??? 

So what happens when BB game plans a heavy run scheme against an opponent and AB doesn’t get many passes? Or are the Pats gonna force him 10 throws a game no matter what, to keep him happy, in which they will be playing by AB’s rules? If brown doesn’t freak out and attack everyone when he’s unhappy, it will be telling how bad he wanted to be on the patriots...

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17 minutes ago, Raynestorm said:

I hope AB destroys the Patriots from within. They deserve that with all their cheating over the years... 

 

Extremely fishy how everything played out so quickly and how quickly he was signed... tampering???

AB is a head case, but calling his GM a racist name and threatening to punch him, seems too far fetched from his usual mental health issues. Looks more like he was trying to force his release to get to the Pats. 

 

I used to to like the patriots, before all their scandals trying to do anything to get rings. What good is it to get rings with asterisks next to them??? 

So what happens when BB game plans a heavy run scheme against an opponent and AB doesn’t get many passes? Or are the Pats gonna force him 10 throws a game no matter what, to keep him happy, in which they will be playing by AB’s rules? If brown doesn’t freak out and attack everyone when he’s unhappy, it will be telling how bad he wanted to be on the patriots...

ESPN's Chris Mortensen reports Antonio Brown sought advice from social media consultants to "accelerate" his release from the Raiders.

 

Another Patriots conspiracy. #ReleaseGate. 

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41 minutes ago, Raynestorm said:

I hope AB destroys the Patriots from within. They deserve that with all their cheating over the years... 

 

Extremely fishy how everything played out so quickly and how quickly he was signed... tampering???

AB is a head case, but calling his GM a racist name and threatening to punch him, seems too far fetched from his usual mental health issues. Looks more like he was trying to force his release to get to the Pats. 

 

I used to to like the patriots, before all their scandals trying to do anything to get rings. What good is it to get rings with asterisks next to them??? 

So what happens when BB game plans a heavy run scheme against an opponent and AB doesn’t get many passes? Or are the Pats gonna force him 10 throws a game no matter what, to keep him happy, in which they will be playing by AB’s rules? If brown doesn’t freak out and attack everyone when he’s unhappy, it will be telling how bad he wanted to be on the patriots...

 

He gets to become a free agent at the end of the season, and he'll sign a bigger contract on the open market while he's still "in his prime". Plenty of teams have the cap space, and need a good WR. Had he stayed with Oakland, he couldn't have re-set his contract value. The Patriots give him a 1 year contract that adds up to almost the same amount (with "incentives"). There's too many dots connecting for this to be a 'conspiracy'.

We saw something like this from Darrelle Revis, minus all the nonsensical drama. Revis got released from Tampa Bay to take a 1 year deal with NE, played well to win a superbowl and won big on free agency the following year.

This is the same thing. His agent engineered his exit from Oakland. It feels like tampering, but it would be hard to prove. I'm no legal expert, but its the player's doing.

 

Shorter, guaranteed contracts need to become the norm in the NFL. You'll see a lot more 1 year, fully guaranteed deals going forward. Otherwise we'll keep seeing more situations like Revis and Brown. If you're a good player who keeps putting up the numbers, wouldn't you want a chance to re-set the market year after year.

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After watching last nights game (and it is that, just one game) I'm of the mind that the Pats are going to revert back to their up tempo, fast paced pass first offense that they loved to use in the past.  I think last year the run first ground and pound style was more a matter of them having to due to their lack of weapons in the passing game.  Outside of Edleman they had nothing at WR & Gronk was a shell of his former self.  Last night it looked like it was vintage Pats.  It's only one game, and Pitt stuffing Michel early and often may have contributed to what I saw, but with AB coming aboard I have to think we're going to see a lot of up tempo, quick drop passing with this team going forward.  The fact that their defense looks to be pretty good this year will help too.  Quick 3 & Outs won't be as much of a concern as years past with that worst in the league defense they had.  From a fantasy standpoint the up tempo is great because of the amount of plays they run in a game.  More plays means more touches to go around and they will have at least 6 top end fantasy talents that need the rock.  AB, Gordon, Edleman, Brady, Michel & White at a minimum.

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10 minutes ago, dicka24 said:

After watching last nights game (and it is that, just one game) I'm of the mind that the Pats are going to revert back to their up tempo, fast paced pass first offense that they loved to use in the past.  I think last year the run first ground and pound style was more a matter of them having to due to their lack of weapons in the passing game.  Outside of Edleman they had nothing at WR & Gronk was a shell of his former self.  Last night it looked like it was vintage Pats.  It's only one game, and Pitt stuffing Michel early and often may have contributed to what I saw, but with AB coming aboard I have to think we're going to see a lot of up tempo, quick drop passing with this team going forward.  The fact that their defense looks to be pretty good this year will help too.  Quick 3 & Outs won't be as much of a concern as years past with that worst in the league defense they had.  From a fantasy standpoint the up tempo is great because of the amount of plays they run in a game.  More plays means more touches to go around and they will have at least 6 top end fantasy talents that need the rock.  AB, Gordon, Edleman, Brady, Michel & White at a minimum.

 

So many people out there spreading this incorrect outlook on the Patriots. The Patriots didn't become a run first team last year. Did they run more effectively out of certain formations? Absolutely. They were able to line up in obvious run situations and have success. But this false claim that they were a run heavy team last year as a big change from previous years is incorrect.

 

2016: Ran the ball on 47% of their offensive plays

2017: Ran the ball on 44% of their offensive plays

2018: Ran the ball on 45% of their offensive plays

 

Their pass-run ratio has been pretty consistent and they did not become a "run first ground and pound" team.

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1 hour ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

So many people out there spreading this incorrect outlook on the Patriots. The Patriots didn't become a run first team last year. Did they run more effectively out of certain formations? Absolutely. They were able to line up in obvious run situations and have success. But this false claim that they were a run heavy team last year as a big change from previous years is incorrect.

 

2016: Ran the ball on 47% of their offensive plays

2017: Ran the ball on 44% of their offensive plays

2018: Ran the ball on 45% of their offensive plays

 

Their pass-run ratio has been pretty consistent and they did not become a "run first ground and pound" team.

This is their spread since 2011. As far back as the data on this site below goes.

https://www.fftoday.com/stats/18_run_pass_ratios.html

Run % Vs Pass %

2011 - 41.7 vs 58.3

2012 - 44.9 vs 55.1

2013 - 42.8 vs 57.2

2014 - 41.8 vs 58.2

2015 - 37.8 vs 62.2

2016 - 46.7 vs 53.3

2017 - 43.3 Vs 56.7

2018 - 45.4 Vs 54.6

 

The only season in which they ran more than last year was 2016.  And for those who may not know, only a couple of teams a year run more than pass. It is by far a pass first league.  A lot of teams pass over 60% of the time. For example last year 10 teams passed 60+% of the time.  Only 2 team ran over 50% of the time.  

That being said, and maybe it's a little recency bias due to my being a Pats fan who watches all the games, and has since Rod Rust was coach (yeah I know) they were a run first team down the stretch.  Coming out of their bye week, and closing out the season, they ran the ball 201x vs passing it 200x.  So by a whisker (if my math is correct so apply salt if needed) they ran 50.2% to 49.8%.  This means they passed a lot more pre-bye than post, so that might be why people (like me) see/saw them as a run heavy (or run heavier in todays pass happy NFL) team.   

 

I think a part of that was their lack of weapons at receiver, especially with Gordon gone and Gronk not being the same player.  This year they've reloaded at WR which leads me to think they will be passing more than their stretch run last season.

 

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On 9/9/2019 at 11:57 AM, LongBalls said:

I was more impressed with the Pats defensive unit than anything else. It looks freaking great.

 

Yes, their ACTUAL defense is great.

But fantasy-wise?...just average. They don't get you an abundance of points off turnovers, or sacks, or punt returns (if you have D/ST designations) or anything like that.  Just average.

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23 minutes ago, Stratocasters said:

 

Yes, their ACTUAL defense is great.

But fantasy-wise?...just average. They don't get you an abundance of points off turnovers, or sacks, or punt returns (if you have D/ST designations) or anything like that.  Just average.

Defensive scoring is always a crap shoot from year to year.  Especially when it comes to DST/ST's scoring TDs.  For example there were only 12 total returns for TDs last year.  7 on Punts, and 5 on Kick Offs.  Pick 6's I don't know, but some say it's best to pick a D that has a high scoring offense which puts their opponents in a lot of passing situations while playing catch up on the scoreboard.  The Pats seemingly will fill that role this year as their offense (on paper) looks to be high scoring.

 

Schedule wise they play Miami, the Bills, and Jets 6x (Jets next week without Darnold).   They also play the Skins, Giants, Ravens, and Bengals.  That's 10 games out of the 15 remaining vs one dimensional or QB challenged offenses.  They do have some tougher opponents in the 2nd half when they play the Eagles, KC, Texans, Browns, and Cowboys.  3 out of these 5 are at home tho.

If they let AB return punts they could have high upside punt return potential.  Returns are rare tho for everyone.

I think their D is a good one to own in Fantasy.  I do agree that they may be a better real life D than fantasy D.  It's not like they have a Mack or Von Miller on the outside pressuring the QB and creating chaos for QB's.  But their schedule is favorable defensively, and their offense should put pressure on teams to score, leading to a lot of passing downs.  Passing downs offer sack, interception, and fumble opportunities for a defense.  If I can't get one of the D's I really like (Bears for example), then the Pats D is totally on my radar.

 

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I love the people that were saying how Brown is this scholar and genius. Looks like this scholar is having trouble picking up the New England Patriots playbook. It's not like he's going into the same system with a familiar OC of the New England Patriots. Also, this could be an intelligent way for BB and the New England Patriots to hold him out pending the league thing :)

Quote

Patriots coach Bill Belichick said Antonio Brown has a "long way to go" in learning the team's offense.

When asked if Brown would play Sunday against the Dolphins, Belichick deadpanned, "We'll do what's best for the team." Belichick noted that Brown has "worked hard" since joining the Patriots but noted that New England's offense bares little resemblance to the one he came from in Pittsburgh. Brown has (at least to this point) avoided punishment in the wake of recent sexual assault allegations, though it sounds like he's not grasping the offense as quickly as the Patriots had hoped. Of course, gleaning meaning from anything Belichick—who has made a career out of stonewalling reporters—says is probably a fool's errand. AB comes in at No. 13 in RotoPat's Week 2 receiver rankings.

Sep 13, 2019, 11:38 AM ET

 

 

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3 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

I love the people that were saying how Brown is this scholar and genius. Looks like this scholar is having trouble picking up the New England Patriots playbook. It's not like he's going into the same system with a familiar OC of the New England Patriots. Also, this could be an intelligent way for BB and the New England Patriots to hold him out pending the league thing :)

 

 

Why would they hold him out "pending the league thing"? They've given no indication of that. They probably wouldn't have him practicing if they didn't intend for him to play.

Even a scholar would have trouble picking up the Patriots' playbook in ~5 days.

That doesn't mean he still can't be effective and have 2-3 big plays. It is risky starting him this weekend, no doubt. But I think it's reasonable to give him at least 2 weeks to really get up to speed on the Playbook and at least a year to be totally comfortable with it. That doesn't mean he can't have big games during that learning process. 

Josh Gordon just did an interview where he talked about how he's still learning parts of the offense. That's normal. 

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28 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

I love the people that were saying how Brown is this scholar and genius. Looks like this scholar is having trouble picking up the New England Patriots playbook. It's not like he's going into the same system with a familiar OC of the New England Patriots. Also, this could be an intelligent way for BB and the New England Patriots to hold him out pending the league thing :)

 

 

 

This means LITERALLY nothing, coming from Bill Belicheck. 

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17 minutes ago, mbell317 said:

Why would they hold him out "pending the league thing"? They've given no indication of that. They probably wouldn't have him practicing if they didn't intend for him to play.

Even a scholar would have trouble picking up the Patriots' playbook in ~5 days.

That doesn't mean he still can't be effective and have 2-3 big plays. It is risky starting him this weekend, no doubt. But I think it's reasonable to give him at least 2 weeks to really get up to speed on the Playbook and at least a year to be totally comfortable with it. That doesn't mean he can't have big games during that learning process. 

Josh Gordon just did an interview where he talked about how he's still learning parts of the offense. That's normal. 

 

100% agree. I was more so addressing the Brown owners who were calling him an immediate WR1 from week 2, when recent data shows that it can take players at least a few weeks if not more to fully grasp a new playbook and new system. This should have been expected, but I guess some owners want a return on their draft investment immediately. Not going to happen.

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38 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

I love the people that were saying how Brown is this scholar and genius. Looks like this scholar is having trouble picking up the New England Patriots playbook. It's not like he's going into the same system with a familiar OC of the New England Patriots. Also, this could be an intelligent way for BB and the New England Patriots to hold him out pending the league thing :)

 

 

 

L.O.L.

Since Nora Princiotti from the Globe says it, it must be true! Nowhere did Bill or anyone that matters say that Brown is struggling to grasp the playbook. He said "he has a long ways to go", which Bill would say about literally anyone a few days after signing them.

Then you proceed to say something about the Patriots holding him out "pending a league thing". What? LOL.

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1 minute ago, ThreadKiller said:

Then you proceed to say something about the Patriots holding him out "pending a league thing". What are you even talking about lol?

I like what you did there but I'm not going to bite. That can of worms will not be opened by me lol.

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