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Chris Paddack 2019 Outlook


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In 1989, at age 42, Nolan Ryan averaged 127 pitches a game with a high of 164, which came five days after he threw 150.

9 hours ago, Golden Spikes said:

18 hits allowed this year in 40 IP a .130 baa, 5 hits allowed to RH all season

we are quite possibly watching the best rookie start ever right now, enjoy it

also he called out Alonso and then made him look foolish all night

dude is already an ACE and as soon as next year will be an annual CY guy, had pitched around 95-96 tops all year, then dials up 98 vs Alonso in the first

WHIP = 0.69, next best is 0.83

ERA 1.55 2nd in baseball leads the NL

 

 

 

i'm hoping he can top Dwight Gooden's 1984 rookie season.  that would be amazing

 

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25 minutes ago, pan55 said:

I think his absolute max this year is 140 innings

Yah overall cause of innings he’s not going to even get close to Docs rookie year. But he’s just as dominant

im a padre fan so I’m a little biased but I see a harder throwing Greg Maddux. Control is as good changeup is better but his fastball doesn’t move as much

 

thanks Marlins lol

imagine them with Paddack and Castillo (who the Padres also stole from them)

Edited by Golden Spikes
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After watching him live for the first time last night, I was probably more impressed with him than any young pitcher I've seen in a while. Not only does he have filthy stuff, he also seems to have a mean streak. He's an intense competitor, evident also by his glove which has "relentless" spelled out across the outside of it.  I knew he was good, but I didn't realize how good this guy is going to be. 

Having said that, if I were the Padres I'd be handling this guy with kid gloves. He'll be their ace for years to come.   But despite his innings limit, after last night I still wouldn't trade him unless I was really blown away by the offer.

 

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16 hours ago, Theoneupper said:

1 for 1 just Verly and Scherzer imo. Everyone else I'm sticking with Paddack. 

 

15 hours ago, absknicks said:

 

Wouldn't trade Verlander, Snell, Bauer, Cole or deGrom for him. Everyone else I'd ship out for him though.

Sorry but this is insane. You're giving up 6-8 starts of proven ace level performance for a guy who has had 1 great month of MLB pitching and almost certainly won't be pitching the final month (or more) of the season?

You're basically saying that hitters will not adjust at all, and Paddack will not regress at all.

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Marlins dealt Paddack and Luis Castillo for Fernando Rodney and Dan Straily.  That’s like driving your Lambo, your wife tailing you in the Ferrari and you go to your local Geo Metro dealership and swap them straight across.  I’m sick to my stomach.  Marlins at one point had Yelich, Paddack and Castillo and will have a Lewis Brinson custom windmill 💨 to show for it.  

Edited by Cmilne23
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7 minutes ago, cs3 said:

 

Sorry but this is insane. You're giving up 6-8 starts of proven ace level performance for a guy who has had 1 great month of MLB pitching and almost certainly won't be pitching the final month (or more) of the season?

You're basically saying that hitters will not adjust at all, and Paddack will not regress at all.

 

If we are talking redraft, you are completely right.  Nobody is trading an ace for a guy on an innings limit

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Recency bias is a hell of a thing.  

 

Paddack has a SIERA/Xfip in the range of 3.3-3.5.  That's a much better predictor going forward than his current ERA.  Sterling peripherals, of course. 

 

Trade him now, you'll get another start from him.  It is quite likely, maybe overwhelmingly likely, that you will have benefited from the best 40-50 innings Paddack throws this year.  Now, if you're in a dynasty/keeper format obviously the analysis is different, but in redraft?  This is a guy you should be trying to trade EVERYWHERE for an established but semi-struggling ace that may actually throw 150+ innings or a big bat.  

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10 minutes ago, Overlord said:

Recency bias is a hell of a thing.  

 

Paddack has a SIERA/Xfip in the range of 3.3-3.5.  That's a much better predictor going forward than his current ERA.  Sterling peripherals, of course. 

 

Trade him now, you'll get another start from him.  It is quite likely, maybe overwhelmingly likely, that you will have benefited from the best 40-50 innings Paddack throws this year.  Now, if you're in a dynasty/keeper format obviously the analysis is different, but in redraft?  This is a guy you should be trying to trade EVERYWHERE for an established but semi-struggling ace that may actually throw 150+ innings or a big bat.  

I agree in redraft. But I’m not looking at any other projection numbers on him. It’s not like he was a guy who had a 3+ coming up and is just having a good run with plus stuff. He’s a guy whose actually posted BETTER numbers in the minors than he is now and his curveball is improving

not many P I’d swap in a keep

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2 minutes ago, Golden Spikes said:

 

not many P I’d swap in a keep

 

I mean, yeah, you need the right return.  You're not trading him just to trade him.

 

But some of the names I've seen in this thread ... yeah, I respectfully disagree.  Someone said, IIRC, "I'd only trade him for Verlander or Scherzer."  I mean ... I'd give up Paddack instantly for someone like DeGrom.  

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Just now, Overlord said:

 

I mean, yeah, you need the right return.  You're not trading him just to trade him.

 

But some of the names I've seen in this thread ... yeah, I respectfully disagree.  For example, I'd give up Paddack instantly for someone like DeGrom.  

I’d go degrom Noah cole snell for sure after that I would think long about it. 

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54 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Marlins dealt Paddack and Luis Castillo for Fernando Rodney and Dan Straily.  That’s like driving your Lambo, your wife tailing you in the Ferrari and you go to your local Geo Metro dealership and swap them straight across.  I’m sick to my stomach.  Marlins at one point had Yelich, Paddack and Castillo and will have a Lewis Brinson custom windmill 💨 to show for it.  

Wow, that is absolutely brutal. If I were a Marlins fan I'd be puking right now.

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Yeah @Golden Spikes the curve is showing some real progress. The metrics really like, it has actually graded better than amazing CH on the year! Just seems like he hasn't really needed it much yet, but I hope he continues to gain confidence in the offering and bust it out more. Just for some fun here was his stuff last night:

FB- averaged 95.5 MPH and touched 99, extraordinary vertical break to it, threw 54--40 for strikes with 26 swings and 10! whiffs

CH- sat 85 MPH with outstanding dive action, threw 31--22 for strikes with 21 swings and another 10 whiffs

CU- registered at 76.6 with some pretty sweet horizontal breakage, super complimentary to his other stuff (both velo and action), only threw 6--4 strikes with 3 swings and a whiff

Wow. #analysis

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2 hours ago, cs3 said:

 

Sorry but this is insane. You're giving up 6-8 starts of proven ace level performance for a guy who has had 1 great month of MLB pitching and almost certainly won't be pitching the final month (or more) of the season?

You're basically saying that hitters will not adjust at all, and Paddack will not regress at all.

 

Might sound insane, but I'm not a huge fan of any of the guys I left off the list. And innings limits have a way of shifting as the season progresses and teams hang around the race longer than they initially expected. 

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On 5/7/2019 at 6:38 PM, Cmilne23 said:

Marlins dealt Paddack and Luis Castillo for Fernando Rodney and Dan Straily.  That’s like driving your Lambo, your wife tailing you in the Ferrari and you go to your local Geo Metro dealership and swap them straight across.  I’m sick to my stomach.  Marlins at one point had Yelich, Paddack and Castillo and will have a Lewis Brinson custom windmill 💨 to show for it.  

 

And they traded away those two pitchers before Jeter arrived on the scene to sabotage the team. 

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