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Fernando Tatis, Jr. 2019 Outlook


oswald737
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12 hours ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

If he continues raking he should be top 15 next year in redrafts. Acuna was a top ten pick this year so wouldn’t Tatis be similar next year? 

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Isn’t he basically Acuna at SS? I know SS is deep NOW, but that’s a tiebreaker.

Acuna had better plate discipline with better K and BB rates than Tatis does now, hit the ball harder, is in a much better lineup, and is just a flat out better hitter. Tatis will probably have a severely inflated ADP based on somewhat unrealistic expectations.

Here's 2018 Acuna vs 2019 Tatis:

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Acunaspacer.png

 

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That's not to take anything away from Tatis. He's fantastic. But he's not quite on the same level as a hitter that Acuna was his rookie season.

Edited by cs3
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Yeah, it's an easy Acuna over Tatis Jr.  He's still in for some regression but he's only 20 and in dynasty, it's hard not to consider him a top 5 asset.  I can see some reason for a sophomore slump for him.  We knew with Acuna his numbers significantly improved over the course of the year, which suggested some real adjustments he's made.  I'm not sure Tatis has had an "improvement" like Acuna had.  

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8 hours ago, Golden Spikes said:

good charts, but speed wise, Tatis is quite possibly the fastest guy I have seen as a RH hitter from home to first since Bo, hes going to get a lot of IF singles the next 5 years

This is my assumption as well so I did a little digging. So far this season he was 17 infield hits and is hitting .205 when he hits the ball in the infield. That Avg. may not seem high but its actually the third highest among players with at least 40 games played (Behind Ryan Cordell and Delino DeShields). Jose Altuve leads all players with 24 infield hits but has played 11 more games.

So yea, hes going to get his share of infield hits.

Edited by RoadApple
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1 minute ago, RoadApple said:

This is my assumption as well so I did a little digging. So far this season he was 17 infield hits and is hitting .205 when he hits the ball in the infield. That may not seem high but its actually the third highest among players with at least 40 games played (Behind Ryan Cordell and Delino DeShields). Jose Altuve leads all players with 24 infield hits but has played 11 more games.

So yea, hes going to get his share of infield hits.

 

I can't imagine this is a predictable stat and not something we can bank on in fantasy as reason for optimism.  Certainly not what I want to rely on. 

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2 minutes ago, 4catztoomany said:

 

I can't imagine this is a predictable stat and not something we can bank on in fantasy as reason for optimism.  Certainly not what I want to rely on. 

I would tend to agree but Jose Altuve averaged 34 infield hits per season from 2015-2018. Hes on pace for basically that same number this year so maybe its more predictable than we think.

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The true impact of speed is not just limited on SBs and infield hits.

 

As I've already stated earlier, elite speed tools allow players to stretch singles into doubles and doubles into triples. It also naturally gives them a huge advantage in runs.

 

Basically, if a player with an average-above average bat has an elite speed tool, it often shows incredible synergy. That's why I often ignore cries about 'regression' when the player is extremely 'toolsy.' The tools simply negate the impact of the 'regression.'

 

As someone said earlier, Statcast and advanced metrics are all cool and useful... I know that. But you should be careful when using those advance stats as an absolute standard for player evaluation. Especially when that player is a top-prospect who has plus-plus tools and is already raking in the bigs at the age of 20. 

 

 

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Not to mention we’ve already seen him score on a pop up to 2b twice. Score from 1st on a single.  Get a triple on a ball the rf cuts off and much more. Not to mention he has beaten out a ton of double plays which doesn’t help avg but sets up sb and runs. 

Maldonado if there is a stat kept for reviewed plays I am pretty sure he would lead he league by a huge margin

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who is the NL ROY heading into August.  I dont even think its close, but here are some numbers side by side

Alonso stats: .260 34 HR 77 RBI, .360 OBP, .958 OPS. 3.7 WAR, 1 SB, .274 BABIP, 7.7 runs created/game, .158 with 2 out RISP, .605 OPS with 2 out RISP

PROS - NY Market, may end up with HR title...as a rookie!, and HR is king in the hearts of baseball fans. Polar Bear is a dope Nickname.

Tatis Stars: .329, 19 HR 45 RBI, .387 OBP, .992 OPS, 3.8 WAR in 28 less games. 14 SB. .423 BABIP, 9.1 runs created/game, .367 with 2 out RISP, 1.175 OPS with 2 out RISP

PROS - Highlight reel of plays, may win BA title...as a rookie!

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11 minutes ago, Golden Spikes said:

who is the NL ROY heading into August.  I dont even think its close, but here are some numbers side by side

Alonso stats: .260 34 HR 77 RBI, .360 OBP, .958 OPS. 3.7 WAR, 1 SB, .274 BABIP, 7.7 runs created/game, .158 with 2 out RISP, .605 OPS with 2 out RISP

PROS - NY Market, may end up with HR title...as a rookie!, and HR is king in the hearts of baseball fans. Polar Bear is a dope Nickname.

Tatis Stars: .329, 19 HR 45 RBI, .387 OBP, .992 OPS, 3.8 WAR in 28 less games. 14 SB. .423 BABIP, 9.1 runs created/game, .367 with 2 out RISP, 1.175 OPS with 2 out RISP

PROS - Highlight reel of plays, may win BA title...as a rookie!

 

ya its def Tatis.  he is what ppl expected Vlad Jr to be.  great draft pick for those that took him (im not one unfortunately) 

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18 minutes ago, Golden Spikes said:

who is the NL ROY heading into August.  I dont even think its close, but here are some numbers side by side

Alonso stats: .260 34 HR 77 RBI, .360 OBP, .958 OPS. 3.7 WAR, 1 SB, .274 BABIP, 7.7 runs created/game, .158 with 2 out RISP, .605 OPS with 2 out RISP

PROS - NY Market, may end up with HR title...as a rookie!, and HR is king in the hearts of baseball fans. Polar Bear is a dope Nickname.

Tatis Stars: .329, 19 HR 45 RBI, .387 OBP, .992 OPS, 3.8 WAR in 28 less games. 14 SB. .423 BABIP, 9.1 runs created/game, .367 with 2 out RISP, 1.175 OPS with 2 out RISP

PROS - Highlight reel of plays, may win BA title...as a rookie!

 

I don't know if Tatis wins. Alonso has had an impressive year with the power and he has a very bright future obviously, but Tatis is the better player and has had the more impressive year... so he SHOULD win.

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Another fun night last night (I'm in an OBP league) 1/3 2 walks, 2 steals (!!!!) and only 1 K.  His K rate is actually up in the 2nd half up to 30%.  Anyone understand how he's doing this? Is it as simple as pointing to his BABIP and saying it's unsustainably high, something we've been hearing for months? Exit velo is 59th %ile, (89.5). Barrel % is top 9% of the league.  None of his advanced stats really seem to stand out (except for sprint speed), yet something is working well.  Someone identified his high number of infield singles as partly explaining his inflated numbers, but if we can count on him to do it regularly, are his numbers actually "inflated?"

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the kid is just special, I have watched every single at bat, and cant tell you how many times, he purposely tries to just poke the ball between 1st and 2nd, thats not a BABIP or luck thing, I am sure stat cast stuff would have said Tony Gwynn is just lucky and could never sustain, didnt hit the ball hard, but could amazingly place the ball at will.  There are people and computers that don't think thats possible

 

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1 hour ago, 4catztoomany said:

Another fun night last night (I'm in an OBP league) 1/3 2 walks, 2 steals (!!!!) and only 1 K.  His K rate is actually up in the 2nd half up to 30%.  Anyone understand how he's doing this? Is it as simple as pointing to his BABIP and saying it's unsustainably high, something we've been hearing for months? Exit velo is 59th %ile, (89.5). Barrel % is top 9% of the league.  None of his advanced stats really seem to stand out (except for sprint speed), yet something is working well.  Someone identified his high number of infield singles as partly explaining his inflated numbers, but if we can count on him to do it regularly, are his numbers actually "inflated?"

 

He’s just the real deal. Numbers can’t tell us everything, and Tatis is just different.

 

Numbers can’t explain him. My eyes recognize his greatness, and even then I can’t believe how incredible he is to watch.

 

The dude is just different. He’s legit.

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It will be interesting to see where he gets drafted next year.

My opponent this period (2 week playing periods) has him and I'm getting trounced when I need a win to make the playoffs.

 

Tatis's daily numbers (in a points league) are  top 10 for all players for the last week that I have been watching him closely. Albies, Freeman,Acuna, JD, Conforto, B. Anderson, Vlad, Urshela are there with him.  If I go out the last 28 days, he is top 25.

Where do people think he will be rated when compared to other SS like Lindor, Bogarts, Story, Bregman, Baez, Polonco, Machado, T Turner and others next year??

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18 minutes ago, rabaak said:

It will be interesting to see where he gets drafted next year.

My opponent this period (2 week playing periods) has him and I'm getting trounced when I need a win to make the playoffs.

 

Tatis's daily numbers (in a points league) are  top 10 for all players for the last week that I have been watching him closely. Albies, Freeman,Acuna, JD, Conforto, B. Anderson, Vlad, Urshela are there with him.  If I go out the last 28 days, he is top 25.

Where do people think he will be rated when compared to other SS like Lindor, Bogarts, Story, Bregman, Baez, Polonco, Machado, T Turner and others next year??

 

I think Tatis goes in the 10-20 range next year. 

 

And in an first year keeper league draft, he should go top 5.

 

Lindor is the only SS in that mix that you can rank ahead of him, IMO. Longer track record and power speed mix. You can argue Tatis over him but Lindor probably goes first at SS. The others are all good/great players but behind Tatis.

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His profile looks a little like Baez in the high babip, LD%, GB%, pull %, but even more extreme in every sense. 

 

I think he is special, but no one is a .420 babip player. Hell Even Ichiro who probably was faster home to 1st, and a grand master at putting the ball in play either sharply on the ground or a hard line drive only  had a career 338 babip.

 

Tatis is really good but I'd bet money he isn't a .325 average player, in fact he probably wont sniff .300 career wise but on the bright side even when his batting average drops 30-40 points next year he's still a 35/35 guy, all while playing SS. That's a rare talent but I have no doubt regression is coming. Even still again, even with this regression coming he will be really good.

 

He could negate some of this by not striking out 30% as well, which he most likely will drop his K rate as he gets older.

Edited by roadawg
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19 minutes ago, 20Duval904 said:

 

I think Tatis goes in the 10-20 range next year. 

 

And in an first year keeper league draft, he should go top 5.

 

Lindor is the only SS in that mix that you can rank ahead of him, IMO. Longer track record and power speed mix. You can argue Tatis over him but Lindor probably goes first at SS. The others are all good/great players but behind Tatis.

There will be an absolute flood of articles and reviews in the off-season about how he’s over rated and is due for regression. Regardless of how good a player is, or how he projects, universal panning really drives prices down.   

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Tatis is just that guy in basketball that slow plays his good three point ability so the defense keeps playing zone instead of man to man. He's just trolling the analytic nerds and will in fact keep getting better and better each year. Hate at your own risk. Whatever average he finishes this year, he will finish higher next year. 

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