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Joey Gallo 2019 Outlook


mowntineer
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6 hours ago, UberRebel said:

I really feel like he's been so under appreciated these past couple of years. In H2H, where counting stats matter so much and BA doesn't have the same effect week-to-week compared to overall, you can pencil him in for almost 2 HR every week. That's comforting. 

 

It all depends on league format with him.  My league penalizes a point for each strikeout so that diminishes his value a little for me.

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Im thinking he'll basically post Khris Davis type numbers by years end. .240-.250 BA-45/50Hrs-120Rbis-100 runs. He'll probably be one of the better value picks of the year with where he was going. 

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Seems like the adjustments are for real. K’s are still sky high but when he has an OPS over 1.000 that’s something I can live with. I’m buying high in keepers, in hopes that the owner believes he comes back to 2018 form. 

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48 minutes ago, mavsfan23 said:

Seems like the adjustments are for real. K’s are still sky high but when he has an OPS over 1.000 that’s something I can live with. I’m buying high in keepers, in hopes that the owner believes he comes back to 2018 form. 

 

2018 Gallo was still very valuable yet underrated, imo.  Especially in H2H.  I don't think anyone is selling on the cheap right now -- his current projections are 1st round worthy. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

I was looking over his statcast data this morning.  While every bit helps, he has only made incremental gains in contact/K%, and worse in a couple specifics... and following that his K% is just a bit under last year at a very high 35.2%. 

The two big changes are 1) Being far more patient in general, taking more both in (72.4% swing rate to 66%) and out (29.2%  swing rate to 19.4%) of the zone.  Biggest improvement is not chasing high pitches, he chased 42% high and away last year to only 11% this year.. in a relatively small sample obviously.  And 2) Basically dropped 6-10% flyballs for line drives depending on which site you look at, which is going to help batting average.  And you would think drop a few HRs, but not yet with the quality of contact he's making.

Between the increased line drive rate and career/league best contact data (60% hard hit rate, 27.5% "barrels" on contact, 96.7 MPH exit velocity... crushing the ball) his expected batting average has risen from .232 last year to .260, so even though his very high BABIP (.397) is sure to fall there is actual reason to believe he has made gains there.  As a catch all, his WOBA (.432) is virtually identical to his xWOBA (.438), so he's earned his production so far.  Obviously at a 1.079 OPS and 119 run, 122 RBI, and 50 HR pace he's got some room to regress and still have a very good season.  

 

Edited by WinterBall
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28 minutes ago, HesSoTaguchi said:

46.9% HR/FB. 

 

I'm hoping the regression isn't too painful but this has been a fun ride so far!

 

It may just mean 45 HR instead of 50 HR

 

and .240 instead of his current .290. He’s gonna continue to hit tons of fly balls. More of them will turn into outs instead of HRs. Some will become doubles.

Edited by UberRebel
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  • 2 weeks later...

After missing a game with a sore wrist a few days ago now he has been pulled from this one mid at bat (though he was trying to stay in) after grabbing at the oblique area between pitches.

Wouldn't be counting on him playing the next few days IMO, though it just happened so no real word.  Just hoping it's not IL worthy yet.

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https://twitter.com/Sullivan_Ranger/status/1134947573561778176?s=20

Quote

 

Gallo left the game with tightness in his left oblique muscle.... felt it trying to make a throw from the outfield in the fifth inning.... Still tried to hit in the bottom of the inning. Felt it again on the check swing.

 

 
Edited by Lebanasty
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6 hours ago, smarmy said:

Perhaps Calhoun once he returns from IL.

 

I'd like to think that, but someone has to play CF and I don't think its Mazara or Choo or Pence. And definitely not Calhoun. So probably Santana or maybe some DeShields

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  • 2 weeks later...

Anybody buying while he's on the shelf? 

The .276 average doesn't appear sustainable but he does appear to be progressing as a player. Big spikes in LD% and Hard% are going to lead to good things for a man with his strength. BB% up to 19.6, a career high, and showing better plate discipline overall. 

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