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Lucas Giolito 2019 Outlook


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4 hours ago, UberRebel said:

 

Not to derail the thread, but I was thinking about this exact thing the other day...

 

How does he he stack up to Castillo and Glasnow in keeper league? Also, Beuhler, Berrios, Syndergaard have to be considered. You seem to have him higher than all of these guys

I'm an absolute sucker for guys who have made mechanical changes and then suddenly see a leap in performance. The Chisox brought Giolito's high school coach in to assist with his development, and shortly thereafter his windup was shortened and he dropped his least effective pitch. It's reasonable to think that coincides with his sudden dominance. That, in addition to his pedigree (dude was the #3 prospect in all of baseball a few years ago), increased velocity, and the fact that the Chisox have the pieces to compete soon in a fairly weak devision, has me convinced the time to buy is now

The rest of the guys you mentioned have struggled or have lingering issues. Thor is injury-prone. Berrios and Buehler don't pitch deep into games and don't have the same K-upside as Giolito. Castillo and Glasnow intrigue me and a glance at both of their peripherals hint that they're the real deal, but I just like Giolito more. I truly think the Giolito we saw in May is close to what he is. He's finally putting it together and becoming the top 5 pitcher most people thought he'd be. 

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I’ve been waiting TWO years to debut this nickname, and finally the time has come: Lucas G-ELITE-O

Remember, he's gonna be facing these punchless AL Central offenses all year long...

I want nothing to do with Giolito either, but the kind of thinking above doesn't work out in the long run. If you wait until a guy has proven he's good over a "longer sustained period of time" you won

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2 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

I haven’t looked this in depth, and would have to look deeper before deciding. But it may not be outrageous. As I watch him, I’m reminded of two guys: Halladay and Verlander. Both elite prospects, both came up and struggled, particularly with walks, then figured it out and were elite. In fact, Glasnow fits the same boat (if he continues what he started this year). I don’t think it’s unique for these big guys to struggle early with command before figuring it out. 

 If he struggles later in the season we can all quote this and laugh, but I really think he’s going to turn into a true ace.

I can get on board with this. I'm a Jays fan myself, and recall Doc being terrible when he first came up. After some mechanical adjustments (he literally rebuilt his delivery and altered his arm angle at release) he became an ace. Like immediately. Something like 10+ era to low-3 era...in the span of half a season. We're seeing a similar progression with Giolito and it's incredibly exciting to witness. 

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5 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

I haven’t looked this in depth, and would have to look deeper before deciding. But it may not be outrageous. As I watch him, I’m reminded of two guys: Halladay and Verlander. Both elite prospects, both came up and struggled, particularly with walks, then figured it out and were elite. In fact, Glasnow fits the same boat (if he continues what he started this year). I don’t think it’s unique for these big guys to struggle early with command before figuring it out. 

If he struggles later in the season we can all quote this and laugh, but I really think he’s going to turn into a true ace.

Not to nitpick too much but JV won ROTY so it's hard to really say he struggled early on. I guess if you count his first 2 starts, but he won ROTY and I remember him being really damn good pretty much out of the gate.

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6 hours ago, bradwatson said:

Not to nitpick too much but JV won ROTY so it's hard to really say he struggled early on. I guess if you count his first 2 starts, but he won ROTY and I remember him being really damn good pretty much out of the gate.

Wow yeah, guess I was remembering that 11-17, 4.84 ERA, 7.30 K/9, 3.90 BB/9 2008 season and thinking that was him as a rookie. You’re right.

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3 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Wow yeah, guess I was remembering that 11-17, 4.84 ERA, 7.30 K/9, 3.90 BB/9 2008 season and thinking that was him as a rookie. You’re right.

Ughhhhhh I remember that season. I actually dropped him that year. Feels crazy how that happened sort of in the middle of his prime, just very weird.

But back to Giolito... Hard not to be extremely encouraged by what he's been doing. All 3 pitches have been awesome lately. The only thing I worry about is how he'll do when he faces some tougher lineups. He did dominate the Astros in Houston, which is obviously, impressive, but other than that he's been facing some weak lineups lately.

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7 minutes ago, I was wrong on Kris Benson said:

Lucas, I knew I ultimately couldn't quit you! Well, didn't really know but I'm glad I had you once again for the actual breakout.

If only Kopech hadn't gotten hurt. This would be a fun 1-2 

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47 minutes ago, Jor357 said:

Hottest pitcher in baseball . Prove me wrong . 

I don't feel like it even if I could because I'm still busy reminiscing about today's start.  It was one of the best (if not the best) pitching performance I got to witness this season.

One thing I know I can definitely say is none of this is a fluke.  Obviously he's not going to keep rolling at quite this high of a level (nobody does), but the fact that he was one of the top prospects in all of baseball not that long ago gives credibility to what we are witnessing.  That is Lucas Giolito becoming one of the very best pitchers in the AL, if not in all of MLB, right before our very eyes this season.

 

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49 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

remember stashing glasnow and giolito a few years back hoping for this. only took a change on scenery for both.

I play redraft, but added both this year after the defending champion weirdly dropped them. 

Soooo going to enjoy reclaiming my trophy. :lol:

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1 hour ago, B&F said:

GREG MADDUX (with velocity)

Will he maintain it?  I hope so and believe so.  

He did an interview during one of the recent Sox games. He talked about the different grips that he uses to throw his pitches. Says he settled on a circle change for his changeup. IIRC that was exactly what Greg Maddux used to throw. Giolito's changeup is absolutely filthy and he has a 94-96 mph fastball to go with it. As a Sox fan I can only hope he keeps it up.

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1 hour ago, B&F said:

GREG MADDUX (with velocity)

Will he maintain it?  I hope so and believe so.  

Initially I was going to say that's a poor comparison since Maddux wasn't a big strikeout pitcher, but in this era he probably would have been.  Maybe still not quite at the level of Giolito, but close enough.

I think he'll maintain for the most part, as in continue to be one of the best pitchers in the league.  Obviously nobody can keep going out there and doing what he is doing every game, but still, I'm sure you get the idea.

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9 minutes ago, Baseball Or Bust said:

Gee elite toe > Maddox change my mind 

One had a 22 year HOF career. One's had an outstanding two months. Yes, Gio was amazing vs. Houston. He was also mediocre to poor vs NY and Boston. And then he's had seven starts against KC, Cle and Toronto. That's a real murder's row there. :rolleyes:

I'm and owner, and love him so far. But everyone needs to cool their jets a bit here. 

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