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Tim Beckham 2019 Outlook


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2 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

 

There are degrees.  I tend to participate in pretty average size 12-14 person leagues and looking at the WW I like the options at SS, OF, and even 1B available in all of em more than the 3B.  Hell even 2B is close.  Maybe that's different for different leagues but that's just my limited observation. That's why I'm willing to take a shot on a hot streak from a player I objectively have little faith in.

 

This 100%.. 3B was the shallowest position talent-wise BY FAR.

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There's always a few players like this every season, where they start hot and even though they can't sustain that level of production, the hot start is not a total mirage but rather foreshadowing of w

I get what you guys are trying to say here... there's a neverending list of players who had a hot week or two to start the season before fading back into anonymity.  For a SS/MI option though, Be

1 minute ago, Sully said:

 

This 100%.. 3B was the shallowest position talent-wise BY FAR.

 

To clarify I think there was a lot of great talent at 3B in the top and even middle of drafts. But if you're filling holes cause of an injury or you're waiting on Vlad etc the WW pickings seem especially bad.  

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18 minutes ago, jb_power said:

 

I 100% disagree.  3B is deep this year.  I see 16 talented starters for 3B

 

Your top 16, probably consist of some order of the following:

 

Jose Ramirez (CLE - 2B,3B) 

Nolan Arenado (COL - 3B) 

Manny Machado (3B,SS) 

Javier Baez (CHC - 2B,3B,SS) 

Alex Bregman (HOU - 3B,SS) 

Kris Bryant (CHC - 3B,RF) 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR - 3B) **** Not even in the majors right now****

Anthony Rendon (WSH - 3B) 

Eugenio Suarez (CIN - 3B) 

Matt Carpenter (STL - 1B,2B,3B) 

Miguel Andujar (NYY - 3B,DH) 

Travis Shaw (MIL - 1B,3B,2B) 

Josh Donaldson (ATL - 3B,DH) ****Hate him, too many questions marks****

Mike Moustakas (MIL - 3B,DH) FA 

Matt Chapman (OAK - 3B) 

Max Muncy (LAD - 1B,2B,3B) ****Platoon?****

 

Followed by: Justin Turner, Profar, Devers, Wil Myers, Carlos Santana, Eduardo Escobar, Ryan McMahon, Niko Goodrum, Yuli Guerriel... MAYBE KANG?

- This is along with the fact that I personally HATE: Devers(people taking a leap for granted), Myers (injury prone), Santana (not talking about minority OBP leagues)...

 

Outside of the top 16 for 2B, I see something like: Dozier, Schoop, Chris Taylor, Willy Adames, Lourdes Guerriel, Joe Wendle, Ryan McMahon, Ketel Marte, Goodrum, Kike Hernandez, Brandon Lowe, Moncada, Odor, Cesar Hernandez, McNeil, Hampson..

Outside of top 16 for SS: Ahmed Rosario, Andrus, Escobar, Dejong, Chris Taylor, Andrelton Simmons, Willy Adames, Semien, Lourdes Gurriel, Jore Polanco, Ketel Marte, Kike Hernandez, Niko Goodrum, Tatis Jr, Hampson..

Outside of top 16 for 1B (this is likely the ONLY argument): Voit, Profar, Desmond, Hosmer, Miggy, Braun, Peter Alonso, Carlos Santana, Yuli Gurriel, Ryan McMahon, Smoak, Bell, Cron, Mancini, Goodrum, Kike Hernandez, Zimmerman...

I doubt anyone will argue against depth of OF this year.

 

21 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

 

To clarify I think there was a lot of great talent at 3B in the top and even middle of drafts. But if you're filling holes cause of an injury or you're waiting on Vlad etc the WW pickings seem especially bad.  

 

I don't see this as disagreeing with my point, if there's undesirable talent on the WW this year already in week one, the position was shallow to begin with..

I'm looking at this from the perspective of, if I waited on my 3B late, I tended to be rather disappointed with my options, relative to all of the other positions (not including catcher..). Similarly, If i grabbed two solid 3B early, I felt like I robbed someone else.

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12 minutes ago, Sully said:

Your top 16, probably consist of some order of the following:

 

Jose Ramirez (CLE - 2B,3B) 

Nolan Arenado (COL - 3B) 

Manny Machado (3B,SS) 

Javier Baez (CHC - 2B,3B,SS) 

Alex Bregman (HOU - 3B,SS) 

Kris Bryant (CHC - 3B,RF) 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR - 3B) **** Not even in the majors right now****

Anthony Rendon (WSH - 3B) 

Eugenio Suarez (CIN - 3B) 

Matt Carpenter (STL - 1B,2B,3B) 

Miguel Andujar (NYY - 3B,DH) 

Travis Shaw (MIL - 1B,3B,2B) 

Josh Donaldson (ATL - 3B,DH) ****Hate him, too many questions marks****

Mike Moustakas (MIL - 3B,DH) FA 

Matt Chapman (OAK - 3B) 

Max Muncy (LAD - 1B,2B,3B) ****Platoon?****

 

Followed by: Justin Turner, Profar, Devers, Wil Myers, Carlos Santana, Eduardo Escobar, Ryan McMahon, Niko Goodrum, Yuli Guerriel... MAYBE KANG?

- This is along with the fact that I personally HATE: Devers(people taking a leap for granted), Myers (injury prone), Santana (not talking about minority OBP leagues)...

 

Outside of the top 16 for 2B, I see something like: Dozier, Schoop, Chris Taylor, Willy Adames, Lourdes Guerriel, Joe Wendle, Ryan McMahon, Ketel Marte, Goodrum, Kike Hernandez, Brandon Lowe, Moncada, Odor, Cesar Hernandez, McNeil, Hampson..

Outside of top 16 for SS: Ahmed Rosario, Andrus, Escobar, Dejong, Chris Taylor, Andrelton Simmons, Willy Adames, Semien, Lourdes Gurriel, Jore Polanco, Ketel Marte, Kike Hernandez, Niko Goodrum, Tatis Jr, Hampson..

Outside of top 16 for 1B (this is likely the ONLY argument): Voit, Profar, Desmond, Hosmer, Miggy, Braun, Peter Alonso, Carlos Santana, Yuli Gurriel, Ryan McMahon, Smoak, Bell, Cron, Mancini, Goodrum, Kike Hernandez, Zimmerman...

I doubt anyone will argue against depth of OF this year.

 

 

I don't see this as disagreeing with my point, if there's undesirable talent on the WW this year already in week one, the position was shallow to begin with..

I'm looking at this from the perspective of, if I waited on my 3B late, I tended to be rather disappointed with my options, relative to all of the other positions (not including catcher..). Similarly, If i grabbed two solid 3B early, I felt like I robbed someone else.

 

Nope wasn't disagreeing with you at all, just clarifying my point.  I think you nailed it above. 

Edited by Baur10
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29 minutes ago, Sully said:

Your top 16, probably consist of some order of the following:

 

Jose Ramirez (CLE - 2B,3B) 

Nolan Arenado (COL - 3B) 

Manny Machado (3B,SS) 

Javier Baez (CHC - 2B,3B,SS) 

Alex Bregman (HOU - 3B,SS) 

Kris Bryant (CHC - 3B,RF) 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR - 3B) **** Not even in the majors right now****

Anthony Rendon (WSH - 3B) 

Eugenio Suarez (CIN - 3B) 

Matt Carpenter (STL - 1B,2B,3B) 

Miguel Andujar (NYY - 3B,DH) 

Travis Shaw (MIL - 1B,3B,2B) 

Josh Donaldson (ATL - 3B,DH) ****Hate him, too many questions marks****

Mike Moustakas (MIL - 3B,DH) FA 

Matt Chapman (OAK - 3B) 

Max Muncy (LAD - 1B,2B,3B) ****Platoon?****

 

Followed by: Justin Turner, Profar, Devers, Wil Myers, Carlos Santana, Eduardo Escobar, Ryan McMahon, Niko Goodrum, Yuli Guerriel... MAYBE KANG?

- This is along with the fact that I personally HATE: Devers(people taking a leap for granted), Myers (injury prone), Santana (not talking about minority OBP leagues)...

 

Outside of the top 16 for 2B, I see something like: Dozier, Schoop, Chris Taylor, Willy Adames, Lourdes Guerriel, Joe Wendle, Ryan McMahon, Ketel Marte, Goodrum, Kike Hernandez, Brandon Lowe, Moncada, Odor, Cesar Hernandez, McNeil, Hampson..

Outside of top 16 for SS: Ahmed Rosario, Andrus, Escobar, Dejong, Chris Taylor, Andrelton Simmons, Willy Adames, Semien, Lourdes Gurriel, Jore Polanco, Ketel Marte, Kike Hernandez, Niko Goodrum, Tatis Jr, Hampson..

Outside of top 16 for 1B (this is likely the ONLY argument): Voit, Profar, Desmond, Hosmer, Miggy, Braun, Peter Alonso, Carlos Santana, Yuli Gurriel, Ryan McMahon, Smoak, Bell, Cron, Mancini, Goodrum, Kike Hernandez, Zimmerman...

I doubt anyone will argue against depth of OF this year.

 

 

I don't see this as disagreeing with my point, if there's undesirable talent on the WW this year already in week one, the position was shallow to begin with..

I'm looking at this from the perspective of, if I waited on my 3B late, I tended to be rather disappointed with my options, relative to all of the other positions (not including catcher..). Similarly, If i grabbed two solid 3B early, I felt like I robbed someone else.

 

I do think the talent level outside of the top 16 is about equal across all infield positions, though I will say I'd try to find room for Turner in the top 16, ousting either Moose or Shaw. And about half of those 2B are in a lot of the top 16's I've seen. The difference is that the top of the 3B pecking order is so far ahead of 2B and to a lesser extent SS that it feels like the weaker 3B are worse than the weaker MI. In reality, the weaker 3B are about equal to the weaker 2B and SS, it just doesn't seem that way because of how much of a powerhouse 3B is at the top; you can miss out on a top 2B/SS and still be competitive, harder to do that with 3B.

 

Anyway, enough rambling. Tim Beckham is worth a gamble. I don't think it's one that'll pay off but hey you never know. Stranger things have happened.v

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6 hours ago, Dislimb said:

 

^So much this.

I’ve been following Beckham closely since day one. This is the guy that Friedman took instead of Buster Posey. While Friedman did have a lot of successes in Tampa, this Beckham pick was easily his biggest fail. It still gives me nightmares.

He’s now been playing professional baseball for 12 years. He’s never hit for average, he’s never hit for power, he’s never stolen bases (at anything other than a terrible rate when he was 20 years old) and he’s never really been dependable at driving in runs.

In 2,915 plate appearances in the minors, he slashed .266/.331/.379 with just 35 home runs. He’s now had 1,445 plate appearances in the majors and has slashed .255/.307/.433 with 51 home runs. While the power has increased, his on base prowess took a hit because of it. He’s still a low BB% and high K% guy with average power at best and abysmal base-running ability.

I am a notorious “hater” of his (as the kids would say) but I have very good reasons to be. This guy just simply isn’t a very good ballplayer and we have over a decade worth of track record to prove it. While I will concede that anything is possible, it is highly unlikely that he magically turns into anything than what he already is.

 

And what he is, with everyday playing time, is valuable as a SS/MI in deep leagues and AL onlys

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Lots in the debate over whether he's just a flash in the pan with no longer term viability is the fact that the Mariners lineup has been FAR better than anticipated through 7 games. 

 

Top to bottom it seems like that lineup is full of players who will return a healthy profit over ADP. 

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23 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

Lots in the debate over whether he's just a flash in the pan with no longer term viability is the fact that the Mariners lineup has been FAR better than anticipated through 7 games. 

 

Top to bottom it seems like that lineup is full of players who will return a healthy profit over ADP. 

yeah this team of cast offs and underdogs is setting the world on fire.  Kind of inspiring.  Let's see if they can keep it up.

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excerpted from the "Examining some fast starters" article on Fangraphs: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/examining-some-fast-starters/

Tim Beckham

Picked up by the Mariners as a placeholder until the team has sufficiently manipulated J.P. Crawford’s service time, Beckham declined to cooperate, destroying everything he saw in Japan before coming back to the States and wrecking Chris Sale with a pair of looooong home runs in Seattle. A few things make Beckham intriguing: his pedigree (he’s a former first overall pick), his past success (he posted a 22-homer, 3-WAR season back in 2017), and his role (he has a clear path to playing time with Crawford in the minors and Kyle Seager on the shelf). Thus far, Beckham is hitting a LOL-worthy .474/.545/1.053, with as many walks as strikeouts. So how much of Bondsian Beckham for real?

Actually, there’s real talent supporting the early breakout here. Beckham has flashed an elite exit velocity early of 93.9 mph, which is in the top 1% of the league in the early going. Like Wong, that’s a big leap from last year, but there are some other reasons for hope as well. Beckham is swinging and missing at (for him) unprecedentedly low rates, whiffing on just 14% of fastballs. He’s also swinging at lower rates overall, continuing a four-year trend of swinging less, striking out less, and taking more outside the strike zone.

Beckham has always been notoriously streaky; back in August 2017, he destroyed the American League to the tune of a .394/.417/.646 line. But Beckham has legitimate tools; you can’t fake that kind of exit velocity. He probably isn’t a star, but he may well be on his way to replicating his 2017 breakout. That has real value, so if you have an open roster spot, pick him up. Keep in mind that Beckham is likely to be streaky all year even if he does repeat 2017, so make a contingency plan for the cold weeks.

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1 minute ago, mjb03003 said:

excerpted from the "Examining some fast starters" article on Fangraphs: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/examining-some-fast-starters/

Tim Beckham

Picked up by the Mariners as a placeholder until the team has sufficiently manipulated J.P. Crawford’s service time, Beckham declined to cooperate, destroying everything he saw in Japan before coming back to the States and wrecking Chris Sale with a pair of looooong home runs in Seattle. A few things make Beckham intriguing: his pedigree (he’s a former first overall pick), his past success (he posted a 22-homer, 3-WAR season back in 2017), and his role (he has a clear path to playing time with Crawford in the minors and Kyle Seager on the shelf). Thus far, Beckham is hitting a LOL-worthy .474/.545/1.053, with as many walks as strikeouts. So how much of Bondsian Beckham for real?

Actually, there’s real talent supporting the early breakout here. Beckham has flashed an elite exit velocity early of 93.9 mph, which is in the top 1% of the league in the early going. Like Wong, that’s a big leap from last year, but there are some other reasons for hope as well. Beckham is swinging and missing at (for him) unprecedentedly low rates, whiffing on just 14% of fastballs. He’s also swinging at lower rates overall, continuing a four-year trend of swinging less, striking out less, and taking more outside the strike zone.

Beckham has always been notoriously streaky; back in August 2017, he destroyed the American League to the tune of a .394/.417/.646 line. But Beckham has legitimate tools; you can’t fake that kind of exit velocity. He probably isn’t a star, but he may well be on his way to replicating his 2017 breakout. That has real value, so if you have an open roster spot, pick him up. Keep in mind that Beckham is likely to be streaky all year even if he does repeat 2017, so make a contingency plan for the cold weeks.

 

sorry... whiffing on JUST 14% of fastballs. Not a bad take but that's an erroneous line. 14% is stupid high for fastballs. 

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3 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

sorry... whiffing on JUST 14% of fastballs. Not a bad take but that's an erroneous line. 14% is stupid high for fastballs. 

 

I feel like, looking at his numbers, the statement of fact is rigth but the number should be 4% not 14%, which is rather impressive for Tim Beckham. 

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18 minutes ago, rocklandrew said:

Red Sox radio announcers Sunday were commenting on how aggressive Beckham was - swinging at stuff 2-3 inches off the plate. 

doesn't seem sustainable.

It was for Original Vlad. 

If he is in the groove and can reach it and hit it comfortably it doesn't matter whether it was a ball or a strike.  When he starts to slump like every player does then it will.

Also all the Mariner hitters were swinging early against Boston pitchers.  It was their team's game plan going into the series.  Maybe their team's plan for the season since they did it against Oakland in Japan too.  Boston switched to that approach last year and it worked for them.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory
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33 minutes ago, rocklandrew said:

Red Sox radio announcers Sunday were commenting on how aggressive Beckham was - swinging at stuff 2-3 inches off the plate. 

doesn't seem sustainable.

Nothing that the Mariners are doing seems sustainable but we've seen crazy stories like this in sports before (Vegas NHL, Rams NFL, 1969 Mets, Greece soccer team, and etc). A guy like Beckham is for sure worth an add. 

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Something is going on in Seattle.  Ryon Healy has like 60% of his double total already that he had last year, Beckham swatting, Bruce is loose, big Bod Vogel hitting to all fields.  Is Tim Laker some swing plane change guru?  Edgar Martinez was hitting coach before and he was big on pitch selectivity.  Is this a small sample fluke or is Tim Laker some hitting guru god?  He was also picked up in Balco scandal back in day.  Maybe he’s big on the juice.  Whatever it is, keep feeding them Timmy!

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1 hour ago, mannymachado said:

What happen this this dude now? Says he left the game due to an injury.

 

 

Yeah could be a 7-10  day hammy thing so I have to drop him. Was a good utility while it lasted 

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