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Jake Odorizzi 2019 Outlook


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Surprised there wasn't a thread on him already, and even more surprised there wasn't after he went 6 IP with 11 K's in his season debut.

Last year he was hovering around 9K / 9 IP, and he's always had the ability to put up gaudy strikeout numbers. The question is whether he can keep that ERA in check!

Edited by Stallion
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  • 5 weeks later...

After watching him last year with the Twins, I'm impressed. I thought he was going to melt down yesterday in the 6th like he did last year. But he got out of trouble against a tough Astros lineup. He seems like his control is much better. Maybe it is the new pitching coach, who also had a big affect on M. Perez and Pineda as well.

I think the cold weather contributed to his two bad games early in the year. The one in Philly, he did not make it out of the first inning.

He has faced Houston twice in a week and held them to 2 runs total, with 9 strikeouts and 1 BB in 12 and 2/3 innings. Not many pitchers make the Astros look as bad as they did last night. Hardly any well hit balls. 

Odorizzi was solid against Toronto the week before in a 4-1 win too.

I haven't bought any shares yet. But his last couple of outings have been impressive.

Edited by rabaak
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Ex-Rays starting pitchers mostly have a bad track record after leaving the team. Jim Hickey was such an underrated and invaluable part of their development that it really stings them all once they are no longer under his tutelage. Over the last decade or so, there have been nine “good” starting pitchers (all considered a number 1 or number 2 starter at some point) that were either drafted by or acquired by the Rays at a very young age and developed in their system. Seven of those nine have a large enough sample size post-Rays to see that their careers have definitely taken a turn for the worse. They are:

 

James Shields

Scott Kazmir

Matt Garza

David Price (to a lesser extent, although still not the beast he once was)

Jeremy Hellickson

Matt Moore

Alex Cobb

 

The other two guys, Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi, will be on the list soon enough if history tells us anything.

 

 

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On 5/4/2019 at 5:04 PM, ASHLANDARROWS1992 said:

Yet another solid start

 

Odorizzi has been a very pleasant surprise for my fantasy team, but I'm looking to sell high on him after last night's gem.  His shiny 2.32 ERA simply is not backed up at all by his underlying numbers (4.49 xFIP)

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I am a believer. 

His FIP is 2.84 which personally I am more a believer than xFIP.  xFIP doesn't take into account a pitcher's ability to limit hard contact. 

His Zone Contact percentage is 78.4%.  Anything under 80% is usually for aces.

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2 hours ago, B&F said:

I am a believer. 

His FIP is 2.84 which personally I am more a believer than xFIP.  xFIP doesn't take into account a pitcher's ability to limit hard contact. 

His Zone Contact percentage is 78.4%.  Anything under 80% is usually for aces.

It’s really rare for a pitcher to have meaningful ability to control his HR/FB% - why should we assume Odorizzi can?

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All he does is dominate, and gets no respect.  I don't think he's that great..but when almost half the league is throwing out terrible lineups,  but he gets to face KC, CHW, DET and CLE a lot.  The Twins continue to slug, so wins should come.

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1 hour ago, murraygd13 said:

All he does is dominate, and gets no respect.  I don't think he's that great..but when almost half the league is throwing out terrible lineups,  but he gets to face KC, CHW, DET and CLE a lot.  The Twins continue to slug, so wins should come.

 

He's not a great real-life pitcher, but he's in an ideal situation (pitcher's ballpark, good offense supporting him, terrible offenses in his division.)  He's had a few bad starts but all in all, I couldn't be happier with him so far.  I wouldn't be opposed to selling high on him now, but I'm not sure how much I'd be able to get since as you say he gets no respect.

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4 hours ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

  I wouldn't be opposed to selling high on him now, but I'm not sure how much I'd be able to get since as you say he gets no respect.

I feel the same way. Thought about trying to bank in and sell high but because his name is Jake Odorizzi I feel people will underpay based on that. just going to enjoy the ride as long as it goes.

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I’m holding tight this guys the main reason why I lead my league in ERA WHIP and wins y’all are some haters if you think he’s fools gold he’s been money for almost 50 IP straight ERA and WHIP under 1 and won almost every time out

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