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Lamar Jackson 2019 Outlook


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7 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Maybe they shouldnt let him practice either because Terry Bridgewater lost his entire season with a non contact injury in practice. 

You can't predict injury in the NFL.  I get you as a fan are concerned with his risk of injury but this is why he is paid millions and the other players are paid millions too. They are paid to play on the field 16 games for 4qtrs, 

 

If anything they should sit their o-line after a big lead because they take the most wear and tear over an entire season since they endure high impact contact on EVERY SINGLE PLAY. Without a healthy o-line u have no running game or QB protection or passing game. 

You actually can predict injuries for rushing QBs. They don’t last at all.

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I’m worried that his quad may tighten up tomorrow and won’t be right next week.   exploring other options

Benched again...wish I had a QB who could play the entire game! Might try to find one of those interchangeable ones on the waiver wire for next week. 

1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

You actually can predict injuries for rushing QBs. They don’t last at all.

 

Exactly, so why would you put him in harms way when you don't have to? I think as the Raven's offense evolves and Jackson gets more comfortable in the pocket they'll probably be a bit more conservative with his running.  

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4 minutes ago, Grayson2401 said:

Vick was also a career 56% completion rate QB. His arm was incredible. His decision making and accuracy was not. 

That’s not the question. Vick never reached his potential because even he admitted he was lazy. However, athletic wise Jackson is not one of a kind. I only see two one of a kind athletes at QB and that’s Mahomes and Wilson. Mahomes for his arm and Wilson for being made of steel. 

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Just now, Gohawks said:

That’s not the question. Vick never reached his potential because even he admitted he was lazy. However, athletic wise Jackson is not one of a kind. I only see two one of a kind athletes at QB and that’s Mahomes and Wilson. Mahomes for his arm and Wilson for being made of steel. 

Jackson playing far better than Mahomes and Wilson right now. Both are GREAT QB's don't get me wrong.  But when you look at all 3 right now, it's Lamar.  He took them to a touchdown on every single drive last night.  He's playing lights out every game.  Dude is a complete maniac on the field and I haven't ever seen Mahomes or Wilson manage a game like he did last night.  Maybe I'm being a bit of a fanboy right now, maybe it's recency bias, maybe regression to the mean comes and Mahomes and Wilson take their spots back above Lamar, but not right now. Right now it's the Lamar's league.

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4 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

You actually can predict injuries for rushing QBs. They don’t last at all.

 

No you can't. It's a belief that people repeat and accept as true but there is little to no actual predictive research done because no one cares enough to actually do an in depth study on it.

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/injury-proneness-running-qbs-russell-wilson-lamar-jackson/opdkjdfw91001uuwfzt4rm82s

 

fo Solutions shows the risk of a quarterback being injured on a designed run is remote — only one for every 236 plays.

The risk for a scrambling quarterback is almost equal to the quarterback who is sacked: once every 91.7 plays for the scrambler, once every 92.5 plays for the guy getting sacked.

The most dangerous play category Verros discovered is the knockdown; the quarterback who is taken to the ground while unleashing a pass, as when the Jaguars’ Nick Foles suffered a broken clavicle after being struck while releasing a pass against the Chiefs. That player is hurt once every 67.3 plays.

"I believe the risk of a running QB being more prone to injury in comparison to a pocket passer is overstated by many analysts," Verros told SN. "One caveat would be that a running QB will attempt so many rushes per game that the sheer volume will still put him at an increased risk."

 

 

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1 hour ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

There's plenty of data. It's absolutely no different than coaches telling their QBs to slide instead of taking hits. And coaches playing more conservatively (i.e., running the ball more) when they have a big lead. Also, suggesting a team play more conservatively versus pulling a player two completely different things. The original poster didn't suggest that the Raven's pull Jackson, he suggested they simply hand the ball off more to Ingram and Edwards (as opposed to running Jackson). So your counterpoint is baseless because you're not actually addressing what he said.

 

 

Sorry you are wrong and you have zero data to support your belief. Again I ask you for data and you keep responding to what you"think" but can't prove. 

Show me the data of all of these QB injuries that occur when the teams have a big lead before the 4th qtr and they should be pulled as a result. 

I am open to learning something new but not open to accept what you believe simply because you believe it. 

Here is a link on a story on  QB injuries below that may help you in some manner but doesnt strongly correlate to your belief. 

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/injury-proneness-running-qbs-russell-wilson-lamar-jackson/opdkjdfw91001uuwfzt4rm82s

It’s not entirely scientific, though. Research on NFL quarterback injuries compiled by injury coordinator John Verros at Sports Info Solutions shows the risk of a quarterback being injured on a designed run is remote — only one for every 236 plays.

The risk for a scrambling quarterback is almost equal to the quarterback who is sacked: once every 91.7 plays for the scrambler, once every 92.5 plays for the guy getting sacked.

The most dangerous play category Verros discovered is the knockdown; the quarterback who is taken to the ground while unleashing a pass, as when the Jaguars’ Nick Foles suffered a broken clavicle after being struck while releasing a pass against the Chiefs. That player is hurt once every 67.3 plays.

 

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3 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

No you can't. It's a belief that people repeat and accept as true but there is little to no actual predictive research done because no one cares enough to actually do an in depth study on it.

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/injury-proneness-running-qbs-russell-wilson-lamar-jackson/opdkjdfw91001uuwfzt4rm82s

 

fo Solutions shows the risk of a quarterback being injured on a designed run is remote — only one for every 236 plays.

The risk for a scrambling quarterback is almost equal to the quarterback who is sacked: once every 91.7 plays for the scrambler, once every 92.5 plays for the guy getting sacked.

The most dangerous play category Verros discovered is the knockdown; the quarterback who is taken to the ground while unleashing a pass, as when the Jaguars’ Nick Foles suffered a broken clavicle after being struck while releasing a pass against the Chiefs. That player is hurt once every 67.3 plays.

"I believe the risk of a running QB being more prone to injury in comparison to a pocket passer is overstated by many analysts," Verros told SN. "One caveat would be that a running QB will attempt so many rushes per game that the sheer volume will still put him at an increased risk."

 

 

Name me a rushing QB that's lasted?

RG3 became irrelevant after pretty much a season.

Cam Newton hit 30 and is now irrelevant

Mariota has battled injuries his entire career

Cunningham battled a bunch of injuries

Watson has already missed pretty much an entire season

The other guys like Mcnabb who had over 500 rushing yards in a season turned into pocket passers.

Again, what's one rushing QB that's lasted? I'm actually curious. 

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6 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

Sorry you are wrong and you have zero data to support your belief. Again I ask you for data and you keep responding to what you"think" but can't prove. 

Show me the data of all of these QB injuries that occur when the teams have a big lead before the 4th qtr and they should be pulled as a result. 

I am open to learning something new but not open to accept what you believe simply because you believe it. 

Here is a link on a story on  QB injuries below that may help you in some manner but doesnt strongly correlate to your belief. 

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/injury-proneness-running-qbs-russell-wilson-lamar-jackson/opdkjdfw91001uuwfzt4rm82s

It’s not entirely scientific, though. Research on NFL quarterback injuries compiled by injury coordinator John Verros at Sports Info Solutions shows the risk of a quarterback being injured on a designed run is remote — only one for every 236 plays.

The risk for a scrambling quarterback is almost equal to the quarterback who is sacked: once every 91.7 plays for the scrambler, once every 92.5 plays for the guy getting sacked.

The most dangerous play category Verros discovered is the knockdown; the quarterback who is taken to the ground while unleashing a pass, as when the Jaguars’ Nick Foles suffered a broken clavicle after being struck while releasing a pass against the Chiefs. That player is hurt once every 67.3 plays.

 


I bet you're fun at parties. 

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4 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

Next year is when the Ravens get scary because his reads are going to jump another level and his passing and efficiency will improve.  If that defense and special teams get slightly better, he will feast on short fields. And dont forget hill becomes a more experienced weapon in the backfield with him which makes their offense play faster

 

IMO I don't think we see this level of production out of Lamar again next year.  As soon as someone puts a scheme together to slow this train down, everyone else will copy.  EX: 2018 Rams, face BB in SB... 2019 Rams look like:  yuck. 

No one has figured out how to stop the Ravens at this point.  They are using a unique 3 TE scheme that makes a defense choose to either put their nickel package in for speed to get to Lamar but they sacrifice size and Ingram runs all over them.  I don't know if many will be able to matchup to that (interested to see if the niners D line can hold this week) but once someone puts the blueprint together, all will follow. 

 

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8 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

It’s all about mitigating risk, if you have the ball in the QBs hands more he’s more likely to get injured. Is that hard to understand lmao

It's just the overall playstyle. Running QBs run around more which leads to more hits even when they are throwing, they obviously run the ball on running plays, and they are also more likely to go out and block. I don't want stats on certain plays. I want stats on QBs who surpass a certain amount of runs per game.

It's common sense. Running QBs don't make it past 30. You can point me to some random stats but this is still a fact that has not changed. The only expeption in recent history I can find is Wilson and he is very careful with his runs and the dude is Lebron James like freak when it comes to injuries. 

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1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

Name me a rushing QB that's lasted?

RG3 became irrelevant after pretty much a season.

Cam Newton hit 30 and is now irrelevant

Mariota has battled injuries his entire career

Cunningham battled a bunch of injuries

Watson has already missed pretty much an entire season

The other guys like Mcnabb who had over 500 rushing yards in a season turned into pocket passers.

Again, what's one rushing QB that's lasted? I'm actually curious. 

 

Russell Wilson is your answer.  😂

but then again none of what you ask shows that you can PREDICT the injury of a "rushing" QB as you previously stated. That's a false statement. You can't.

because if a "rushing" QB is one who runs on a edsigned play thenn he is the least likely to be injured

I think you need to start defining  what is a  "rushing" QB  and how he gets injured,  is it on a designed run play, a scramble, sliding,  in the pocket on a passing play?

The data from the article shows injury is significantly higher on a scrambling play for all QB's than a designed run play.

 

risk of QB injury on a designed run =  1/236 plays.

risk  of QB injury  scrambling 1/91.7 plays for the scrambler  

risk of QB injury  sacked  1/92.5 plays 

risk of QB taken to ground on passing play  1/ 67.3 plays.

 

 

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15 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

It’s all about mitigating risk, if you have the ball in the QBs hands more he’s more likely to get injured. Is that hard to understand lmao

 

Yeah it's called play football. not sure why people are obsessed about sitting an NFL player before the 4th qtr Let's sit everyone and let the practice squad play😂

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3 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

It's just the overall playstyle. Running QBs run around more which leads to more hits even when they are throwing, they obviously run the ball on running plays, and they are also more likely to go out and block. I don't want stats on certain plays. I want stats on QBs who surpass a certain amount of runs per game.

It's common sense. Running QBs don't make it past 30. You can point me to some random stats but this is still a fact that has not changed. The only expeption in recent history I can find is Wilson and he is very careful with his runs and the dude is Lebron James like freak when it comes to injuries. 

 

I think if you're talking about "designed runs" i agree with you, that's not sustainable for a 10 -15 year career. 

Russ doesn't have designed runs, he does some read option but he always gets down or out of bounds.  That's sustainable.  How the Panthers used Cam, not sustainable.  I think Lamar is more towards Cam but he seems to be more elusive but still takes unnecessary hits IMO.  If he adjusts and starts to slide and go out of bounds i think it will go a long way to extending his career into the double digits. 

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4 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

It's just the overall playstyle. Running QBs run around more which leads to more hits even when they are throwing, they obviously run the ball on running plays, and they are also more likely to go out and block. I don't want stats on certain plays. I want stats on QBs who surpass a certain amount of runs per game.

It's common sense. Running QBs don't make it past 30. You can point me to some random stats but this is still a fact that has not changed. The only expeption in recent history I can find is Wilson and he is very careful with his runs and the dude is Lebron James like freak when it comes to injuries. 

 

Rusell wilson knows how to protect himself, he is very successful with sliding and running out of bounds whereas someone like Cam Newton would take a higher amount of head on tackles and lower percentages of sliding and running out of bounds. Cam is also used more on QB sneaks and goaline work at a higher rate than other mobile QB's. 

 Everyone keeps lumping all of these guys into the same category of "rushing" Qb's but they do not play the same way and are not all used in the same way other than they use their legs more to buy time on the play. 

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2 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Russell Wilson is your answer.  😂

but then again none of what you ask shows that you can PREDICT the injury of a "rushing" QB as you previously stated. That's a false statement. You can't.

because if a "rushing" QB is one who runs on a edsigned play thenn he is the least likely to be injured

I think you need to start defining  what is a  "rushing" QB  and how he gets injured,  is it on a designed run play, a scramble, sliding,  in the pocket on a passing play?

The data from the article shows injury is significantly higher on a scrambling play for all QB's than a designed run play.

 

risk of QB injury on a designed run =  1/236 plays.

risk  of QB injury  scrambling 1/91.7 plays for the scrambler  

risk of QB injury  sacked  1/92.5 plays 

risk of QB taken to ground on passing play  1/ 67.3 plays.

 

 

Dude, I don't care how he gets injured.

Explain why QBs that are running QBs don't last? I looked up guys that had over 500 rushing yards in a season. Since 2000 there's been 10 of them. 1 was a huge career anomaly and two were Wilson and Mcnabb. Mcnabb changed his playing style completely and as mentioned Wilson is an anomaly. 

None of the other ones were relevant in their 30s. In fact, most flamed out after a season or two.

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11 minutes ago, Flynfiesta6 said:

 

IMO I don't think we see this level of production out of Lamar again next year.  As soon as someone puts a scheme together to slow this train down, everyone else will copy.  EX: 2018 Rams, face BB in SB... 2019 Rams look like:  yuck. 

No one has figured out how to stop the Ravens at this point.  They are using a unique 3 TE scheme that makes a defense choose to either put their nickel package in for speed to get to Lamar but they sacrifice size and Ingram runs all over them.  I don't know if many will be able to matchup to that (interested to see if the niners D line can hold this week) but once someone puts the blueprint together, all will follow. 

 

 

yes, I agree to an extent but i think the ravens overall get better in all aspects of offense, defense, special teams which will make lamar more efficient as a QB so you will need for him to be less spectacular on every play. I also think a key think is his accuracy  which is overlooked. he's not throwing duks out there or missing guys, u can only imagine with more continuity with his wr's he becomes a deadlier passer.. 

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4 minutes ago, Flynfiesta6 said:

 

I think if you're talking about "designed runs" i agree with you, that's not sustainable for a 10 -15 year career. 

Russ doesn't have designed runs, he does some read option but he always gets down or out of bounds.  That's sustainable.  How the Panthers used Cam, not sustainable.  I think Lamar is more towards Cam but he seems to be more elusive but still takes unnecessary hits IMO.  If he adjusts and starts to slide and go out of bounds i think it will go a long way to extending his career into the double digits. 

 

1 minute ago, dashoe said:

 

Rusell wilson knows how to protect himself, he is very successful with sliding and running out of bounds whereas someone like Cam Newton would take a higher amount of head on tackles and lower percentages of sliding and running out of bounds. Cam is also used more on QB sneaks and goaline work at a higher rate than other mobile QB's. 

 Everyone keeps lumping all of these guys into the same category of "rushing" Qb's but they do not play the same way and are not all used in the same way other than they use their legs more to buy time on the play. 

Now. Wilson also changed his playstyle as well.

Early in his career he was not as reckless as Newton sure but he still ran around and did not slide nearly enough. They also had a large amount of designed runs during the LOB era.

You either evolve into a passing QB that can run very well or you flame out. It's that simple.

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11 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Yeah it's called play football. not sure why people are obsessed about sitting an NFL player before the 4th qtr Let's sit everyone and let the practice squad play😂

I don’t think it’s all about the 4th quarter but not making your Star QB take added risk. Sit him in the backend 3rd/4th if you’re up 30 and sit him week 17 if you have nothing to play for. 

 

How much would it suck to see jackson injured before the playoffs. This guy makes watching football fun

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