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Lamar Jackson 2019 Outlook


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2 minutes ago, CooL said:

Might be true with RG3 regarding being at odds with Shanahan, I didn't follow those discussions carefully.  I thought his downturn started out with the injury, and when he became ineffective running was when it all turned into a pumpkin.  Agree that he took a lot of unnecessary hits and was reckless.  Other guys indeed have learned from that and take the necessary steps to protect themselves.  The rule changes about hitting a QB have obviously also helped.

Anybody would agree that the KC offense is not what it was last year.  So was it the Hill injury?  Mahomes kneecap?  The revolving door of RBs?  Just people figuring them out?  I don't know.  But regression is regression.  Mahomes looked on fire for the first three games.  But then it has been decidedly average since then aside from one blowup game in week 10.  I recall preseason that people were setting the over under for TDs at 40 for him, which I thought was fair.  He's not even going to come close to that number and he wouldn't have made it even if he hadn't been injured.  He is no doubt talented, but the league eventually catches up.  I anticipate that they will do the same for Lamar.

 

Yes regression is regression but the process for analyzing the regression is important.  mahommes regression in my view is not talent skill or QB, it's the offense as whole; contrast that to a Baker Mayfield where even if you factor in poor o-line play hehas deteriorated and makes bad decisions and throws in the offense.  i think these types of distinctions are important because they help shape my process for valuing players the next season. Did the player regress because he sucks or did the player regress because his situation changed. 

Similar to Hopkins his situation always changed prior to Deshaun but his talent and skills kept him at average to above average production so his production had some regression due to crappy QB play but not his ability. 

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I’m worried that his quad may tighten up tomorrow and won’t be right next week.   exploring other options

Benched again...wish I had a QB who could play the entire game! Might try to find one of those interchangeable ones on the waiver wire for next week. 

1 hour ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

That's not my argument, but consistent high scoring RBs ARE more valuable than QBs.  Zero RB in all is a successful strategy, CMCs success does not dispute that.  Your argument has morphed to defending Zero RB, which I've never debated against.  Teams that drafted Wilson, Winston, and a slew of other guys are doing just fine because the entire success in fantasy is the other positions BESIDES QB because you can get a solid floor at that position every week with absolute scraps if you had to.

 

No my point was you made a false statement  by stating rb's are more valuable because you can't find replacement value on the waiver vs QB's.  The replacement rb is going to be on someones bench waiting for the starting rb to get injured, not the waiver. The rb is not on the bench because he is producing points, he is on the bench as insurance or a lottery ticket. 

Their value is in scarcity due to fragility not that they are more productive. You and the other poster were muddling and conflating  a  bunch of concepts of position scarcity, point production,waiver wire depth, draft ADP,roster management, etc into some sort of absolute truth. 

Again if your statement that rb's are more valuable were an absolute  true then the 1st 36 picks in a draft would be all rb's or we would never see a wr taken in the first 12 picks ever.

it would be extremely difficult to replace the production of lamar or cmc however if cmc goes down you have the opportunity to grab his cuff and see if you can replace most if not all of his production. We have seen this in the past with Ekeler vs gordon, conner vs bell, latavius vs kamara, kamara vs ingram, tevin+brieda+mostert vs tevin+brieda+mostert, drake vs DJ vs edmonds.  The same does not hold true for QB cuffs because unlike rb's QB's are not very plug and play. 

Again if rb's were more valuable then the first 3 rds of drafting or ADP would be at least 30 rbs

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2 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

No my point was you made a false statement  by stating rb's are more valuable because you can't find replacement value on the waiver vs QB's.  The replacement rb is going to be on someones bench waiting for the starting rb to get injured, not the waiver. The rb is not on the bench because he is producing points, he is on the bench as insurance or a lottery ticket. 

Their value is in scarcity due to fragility not that they are more productive. You and the other poster were muddling and conflating  a  bunch of concepts of position scarcity, point production,waiver wire depth, draft ADP,roster management, etc into some sort of absolute truth. 

Again if your statement that rb's are more valuable were an absolute  true then the 1st 36 picks in a draft would be all rb's or we would never see a wr taken in the first 12 picks ever.

it would be extremely difficult to replace the production of lamar or cmc however if cmc goes down you have the opportunity to grab his cuff and see if you can replace most if not all of his production. We have seen this in the past with Ekeler vs gordon, conner vs bell, latavius vs kamara, kamara vs ingram, tevin+brieda+mostert vs tevin+brieda+mostert, drake vs DJ vs edmonds.  The same does not hold true for QB cuffs because unlike rb's QB's are not very plug and play. 

Again if rb's were more valuable then the first 3 rds of drafting or ADP would be at least 30 rbs

By your logic you’d see more QBs drafted early but everyone is waiting later and later

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11 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

By your logic you’d see more QBs drafted early but everyone is waiting later and later

 

Wrong. My logic proves that rb is not the most valuable position in fantasy as the other poster claims.  I never made a claim as to which skills player is more valuable. I don't think one skills position is more valuable vs the other; it's all based on supply and demand vs expected production, cost and roster needs/construction. You need to fill 9 slots every week.  People value players differntly so there is no absolute rb is more valuable than others rule. 

 I will say that in my experience people who follow biased mantras/rhetoric and not actual analysis of data dont do very well in fantasy. Don't take a TE before rd 3 is one of my favorites and start your studs is another😂

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2 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

Wrong. My logic proves that rb is not the most valuable position in fantasy as the other poster claims.  I never made a claim as to which skills player is more valuable. I don't think one skills position is more valuable vs the other; it's all based on supply and demand vs expected production, cost and roster needs/construction. You need to fill 9 slots every week.  People value players differntly so there is no absolute rb is more valuable than others rule. 

 I will say that in my experience people who follow biased mantras/rhetoric and not actual analysis of data dont do very well in fantasy. Don't take a TE before rd 3 is one of my favorites and start your studs is another😂

Based on how many RBs are taken before QBs would show that they are more valuable for most formats. I’m not sure how you can argue against that. Look at 2QB leagues. QBs are taken waaay sooner. Lmao 

 

deshaun watson 2 years ago, mahomes last year, Jackson this year. Who is the 13th round darling next year?

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4 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Based on how many RBs are taken before QBs would show that they are more valuable for most formats. I’m not sure how you can argue against that. Look at 2QB leagues. QBs are taken waaay sooner. Lmao 

 

deshaun watson 2 years ago, mahomes last year, Jackson this year. Who is the 13th round darling next year?

 

Lock is a lock. 

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18 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Based on how many RBs are taken before QBs would show that they are more valuable for most formats. I’m not sure how you can argue against that. Look at 2QB leagues. QBs are taken waaay sooner. Lmao 

 

deshaun watson 2 years ago, mahomes last year, Jackson this year. Who is the 13th round darling next year?

 

Dude you are completely missing the point for whatever your reasons are and you probably did not read back more than a post or2 so u are coming in on a hot take, so I will elaborate for you. 😂

The point is  2 posters said rb is the most important position in fantasy, so my counterpoint was in an extreme scenario if rb's were the most valuable players in fantasy, they would be selected  as the top picks from 1-36 because you have to start 2 of them + a flex. This would also mean than EVERY rb in a rotation that gets touches in the NFL would be taken before a single QB is taken from 1st string to 3rd string to the cuff of the cuff. 

The fact is this is not the case. People generally draft based on expected production. The reason people in general draft the starting rb high is based on their higher touches in the offense + TD potential. However since fantasy is based on probabilty and since PPR became the standard format which devalues the rb position and brings the wr inline, there are many who follow zero rb and dont value rb's very high because of their fragility and wont touch them until at least the 7th rd, prioritizing the production of less fragile wr, te's and a top QB.

So once again I am not advocating one position is more valuable than the other, I am pointing out the mantra that the rb is the most valuable position in fantasy is a false one. What point you are trying to make is within zero context of my statements 🥳

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I urge you to find another option.  I’m starting him out of necessity.  Lamar will have a mediocre game today.  Book it I promise he will have his top 3 worst game of the season today.  I am expecting somewhere in between 13-20 points today.  The defense will take care of the Jets and RG3 will be in by the 4th quarter.  See you all next year if you start him.  

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2 minutes ago, dlionsfan901 said:

I urge you to find another option.  I’m starting him out of necessity.  Lamar will have a mediocre game today.  Book it I promise he will have his top 3 worst game of the season today.  I am expecting somewhere in between 13-20 points today.  The defense will take care of the Jets and RG3 will be in by the 4th quarter.  See you all next year if you start him.  

Naw, tonight is the Lamar Show. He knows hes the spot light. Yeah he will probably get pulled in the 4th qtr but after putting up 30+ points.

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42 minutes ago, dlionsfan901 said:

I urge you to find another option.  I’m starting him out of necessity.  Lamar will have a mediocre game today.  Book it I promise he will have his top 3 worst game of the season today.  I am expecting somewhere in between 13-20 points today.  The defense will take care of the Jets and RG3 will be in by the 4th quarter.  See you all next year if you start him.  

I’m hoping one of the Jackson owners I’m facing in the semis this week see your post.

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