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Zach Eflin 2019 Outlook


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11 minutes ago, bigmarc27 said:

I’ve got him and starting him because my ratios are screwed for my first matchup already, but he’s the tail end of my staff and would be first to hit waivers if I saw something promising. 

My thoughts exactly.  He’s my 5th starter but it feels like a gamble to put him out there going into Washington with that lineup. 

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1 minute ago, street sharks said:

Anything to see here?

 

I think so. There’s nothing that seems “bad” to me. Haven’t watched too closely yet but seems like a three pitch pitcher. Probably better than Pivetta 🙄

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6 hours ago, taobball said:

 

I think so. There’s nothing that seems “bad” to me. Haven’t watched too closely yet but seems like a three pitch pitcher. Probably better than Pivetta 🙄

He does? I know he added a cutter, but it looks like he used it to replace his Slider vs RHP. 

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21 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

He does? I know he added a cutter, but it looks like he used it to replace his Slider vs RHP. 

 

He used a Change-Up 10+% of the time last year. Had good whiffs even if it didn't have overly good BA/SLG results. As a whole on his career his Change-Up has like a 12% whiff and a .410 SLG. Not bad at all. Pitched backward with a Curveball to start a few ABs. And to be frank the Change% was a bit lower than I thought it was in the first start, but part of the deception I think was caused by the fact that every Change-Up he threw was a quality one. He got two strikeouts on Change-Ups v. Lefties and doubled up on two Swing-And-Miss changes v. Soto. I mean that second Soto AB:

 

First pitch Curve, misses 1-0

Change Swing-And-Miss good fade running off the outside corner 1-1

Tries to back door a cutter/slider 2-1

Fastball 91 with more run away Swing-and-miss 2-2

Fastball 94 Ball 3-2

Fastball 94 Foul 3-2

Change-Up Center Down getting the final swing+miss and K

 

That's not really a sequence of a typical two-pitch pitcher. The first arguably 5 pitches of the AB were different (I don' get to specific on fastballs sometimes, but the 91 with run and 94 were clearly variants). the change a put-away pitch. He also put Adams away on a good one and threw it to Eaton. 

 

I'll be interested to see where he takes his repertoire from here. 

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2 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

He used a Change-Up 10+% of the time last year. Had good whiffs even if it didn't have overly good BA/SLG results. As a whole on his career his Change-Up has like a 12% whiff and a .410 SLG. Not bad at all. Pitched backward with a Curveball to start a few ABs. And to be frank the Change% was a bit lower than I thought it was in the first start, but part of the deception I think was caused by the fact that every Change-Up he threw was a quality one. He got two strikeouts on Change-Ups v. Lefties and doubled up on two Swing-And-Miss changes v. Soto. I mean that second Soto AB:

 

First pitch Curve, misses 1-0

Change Swing-And-Miss good fade running off the outside corner 1-1

Tries to back door a cutter/slider 2-1

Fastball 91 with more run away Swing-and-miss 2-2

Fastball 94 Ball 3-2

Fastball 94 Foul 3-2

Change-Up Center Down getting the final swing+miss and K

 

That's not really a sequence of a typical two-pitch pitcher. The first arguably 5 pitches of the AB were different (I don' get to specific on fastballs sometimes, but the 91 with run and 94 were clearly variants). the change a put-away pitch. He also put Adams away on a good one and threw it to Eaton. 

 

I'll be interested to see where he takes his repertoire from here. 

Stuck me as a guy with a good change in terms of movement/velocity. Seems he struggles disguising it out of his delivery to make it look like a fastball. So it's tipped.. But i really only watched like 1 start last year. So could have just been a bad day. 

Looks like he's relying now on sequencing to disguise the change now? That could work better.

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1 minute ago, Slatykamora said:

Stuck me as a guy with a good change in terms of movement/velocity. Seems he struggles disguising it out of his delivery to make it look like a fastball. So it's tipped.. But i really only watched like 1 start last year. So could have just been a bad day. 

Looks like he's relying now on sequencing to disguise the change now? That could work better.

 

And I was about to post this anyway, but TBH seeing tweets like this are probably what made me instinctively believe he used it a bit more without double checking the data: 

 

 

I knew I had seen that tweet just dropped it in the search bar to find it. That was after the Fat Adams AB. Small sampling so grain of salt, but will be interesting to see again how he mixes. 

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Great first start, but I'm skeptical. His first two starts of 2018 were very good...then he was terrible for the rest of May. Then for six starts from June 5 through July 3, he was great again. After that, he was pretty bad minus a couple of good starts in September.  

I might regret it later, but I'm going to have to take a wait-and-see approach before I believe in him. I understand guys like this need to be picked up and evaluated just in case he's for real, but I just don't have that luxury right now. I'm just not a believer in Eflin at the moment. Missing bats is new for him...he's allowed 44 HR in 260 career innings (not good in that stadium)...gives up too many hits for my liking. That said, he's 24 and maybe this is just part of his growth. 

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Well that was disappointing against a meek Marlins team. Though with 4 Ks and 0 BBs in 4 innings, he's still over 10 Ks per nine innings and less than 1 walk per nine innings. Got done it in by the long ball and a .500 BABIP today. He's always been more of a flyball pitcher, so this is always a threat. But the peripherals still look strong despite the crap outing.

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1 hour ago, swfcdan said:

Effing Eflin. Who's holding? 3 bombs in an inning to the Fish??

Not me - CSB incoming - I rage dropped for Jordan Lyles. 

 

Look at it this way, this was one of the easier starts he was gonna have this year against a very mediocre offense and he had trouble getting outs.  He was getting rocked hard by slap hitters and had zero clean innings.  The first two games look like semi flukes now.  You absolutely can't trust him against a better offense now after that miserable display yesterday.  At best he'll be inconsistent and you'll bench him during good games and play him during bad ones.  Also his next start is against Rockies in Coors be prepared to bench him there.

Edited by JetsAwesome
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  • 2 weeks later...
44 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Great game today.  A complete game which is getting to be a very rare thing in baseball.  Patience is always needed with your pitching.

 

Would you start him against the Braves, Nats or Mets? I preach patience but I'm not rostering him again, there are others out there who I'd rather hitch my wagon to. I'd rather him be someone else's problem this season. I'll take another look at him next season though. 

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2 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Great game today.  A complete game which is getting to be a very rare thing in baseball.  Patience is always needed with your pitching.

 

3K's though vs the Marlins...not that impressive. Doesn't move the needle too much for me.

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1 hour ago, weisberg26 said:

Absolutely dominated his past three starts. 25 IP 15 H 2 ER 2 BB 15 K versus Mia, Wash & KC. With that said I’m still not confident about starting him the brewers lol. 

 

LOL...to be fair, though, it is hard to feel confident about starting anyone against the Brewers. 

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