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Hunter Dozier 2019 Outlook


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On the royals broadcast recently, they were talking about how he gives himself a "hit" for things like a productive out, 8+ pitch AB, certain statcast measurements, in addition to his normal hits, and

You guys are going to stress the crap out of yourselves if you read into month to month splits of almost any metric.

Ill eat my foot

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1 hour ago, CraftyRighty said:

I missed the boat everywhere, so I have not kept on on reading, is this dude legit?

 

I mean not way he ends up batting 300 but is 275 with 25 dongs happening?

He's cooled off some, Fangraphs seems to think Tommy Pham moving forward. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-best-hitter-youve-never-heard-of/

Last 2 weeks he's right at your 275 mark with 2 dongs, so even if he stays at that 1 dong per week clip, puts him at 24 on the season. 

 

 

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34 minutes ago, jseay65 said:

He's cooled off some, Fangraphs seems to think Tommy Pham moving forward. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-best-hitter-youve-never-heard-of/

Last 2 weeks he's right at your 275 mark with 2 dongs, so even if he stays at that 1 dong per week clip, puts him at 24 on the season. 

 

 

 

Pham would be gravy for a guy we all probably scooped off waivers for a song. 

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Don't get your knickers in a twist guys, there's no way Hunter is platooning with that other schmo at 3B, zero chance. It's just nonsense written by bafoons who write the blurbs, there's zero evidence behind it.

You really think they'd call someone up to bench their best hitter so far? Even Ned Yost isn't that stupid. Dozier is going to breakout in the thick of a surprisingly good lineup, buckle up folks.

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1 minute ago, dundeeslugger said:

Lopez is 2nd, Dozier is 1st and DH and some 3B so no chance of lost playing time.

 

Not a direct PT loss, but indirect with more bodies; the athletic article suggested Dozier/ Gutteriez in a platoon at 3B with Lopez in the mix. 

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4 minutes ago, bluefrogguy said:

 

Not a direct PT loss, but indirect with more bodies; the athletic article suggested Dozier/ Gutteriez in a platoon at 3B with Lopez in the mix. 

He will get his days off, but no loss of standard playing time. There is no platoon. 

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18 minutes ago, dundeeslugger said:

He will get his days off, but no loss of standard playing time. There is no platoon. 

 

I'm not as confident. Sure most games, Merrifield to RF, Soler to full time DH, Dozier back to mostly 3B, Guterriez to bench. But they like Guterriez and want to still get him some ABs, and 3B is really his only position.  The other part of this is that Dozier has pretty pronounced reverse splits in his career and not any better in his breakout year- .204/.324/.289 slash line with .086 ISO career, .212/. 366/.303 this year with .091 ISO.  He has only 1 HR in 152 ABs against lefties in his career.  He basically has shown no power versus lefties.  Looking at those numbers, I can see why there was some conjecture of a platoon, if they really do want to get Guterriez some ABs.  

  

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14 minutes ago, bluefrogguy said:

 

I'm not as confident. Sure most games, Merrifield to RF, Soler to full time DH, Dozier back to mostly 3B, Guterriez to bench. But they like Guterriez and want to still get him some ABs, and 3B is really his only position.  The other part of this is that Dozier has pretty pronounced reverse splits in his career and not any better in his breakout year- .204/.324/.289 slash line with .086 ISO career, .212/. 366/.303 this year with .091 ISO.  He has only 1 HR in 152 ABs against lefties in his career.  He basically has shown no power versus lefties.  Looking at those numbers, I can see why there was some conjecture of a platoon, if they really do want to get Guterriez some ABs.  

  

 

Ok, but the guy has been worse than replacement level for his career until this season where he's already posted 2 WAR.  He's an entirely new player and deciding to bench him against lefties based off of 41 PA's this year where he's hit only .212 but has an 8/9 BB/K ratio seems extremely misguided.

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18 minutes ago, bluefrogguy said:

 

I'm not as confident. Sure most games, Merrifield to RF, Soler to full time DH, Dozier back to mostly 3B, Guterriez to bench. But they like Guterriez and want to still get him some ABs, and 3B is really his only position.  The other part of this is that Dozier has pretty pronounced reverse splits in his career and not any better in his breakout year- .204/.324/.289 slash line with .086 ISO career, .212/. 366/.303 this year with .091 ISO.  He has only 1 HR in 152 ABs against lefties in his career.  He basically has shown no power versus lefties.  Looking at those numbers, I can see why there was some conjecture of a platoon, if they really do want to get Guterriez some ABs.  

  

🏽 Now this does say “something” besides he or she thinks... Coaches ain’t this stupid hence Enter Nicky and platoon-inn 4 Hunts 

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27 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Ok, but the guy has been worse than replacement level for his career until this season where he's already posted 2 WAR.  He's an entirely new player and deciding to bench him against lefties based off of 41 PA's this year where he's hit only .212 but has an 8/9 BB/K ratio seems extremely misguided.

 

I'm not arguing as to whether it is a good idea or not, I'm just giving support as to why I'm worried about reduced ABs for Dozier.  

The obvious place where ABs that could come from in the Royals lineup is Owings' .  He's gotten fairly regular ABs as a utility.  If they instead take his ABs away and utilize Merrifield's flexibility as more of an everyday utility instead, Dozier might not be impacted too much. 

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1 hour ago, bluefrogguy said:

 

I'm not arguing as to whether it is a good idea or not, I'm just giving support as to why I'm worried about reduced ABs for Dozier.  

The obvious place where ABs that could come from in the Royals lineup is Owings' .  He's gotten fairly regular ABs as a utility.  If they instead take his ABs away and utilize Merrifield's flexibility as more of an everyday utility instead, Dozier might not be impacted too much. 

 

If Dozier's hitting a lick, why would KC take away ABs from him. Makes no sense. If anything, they regard him as a cornerstone player now.

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5 minutes ago, papasmurf said:

 

If Dozier's hitting a lick, why would KC take away ABs from him. Makes no sense. If anything, they regard him as a cornerstone player now.

 

Plenty of examples of managers making head scratching lineup decisions.  Remember we're talking about Ned "I'm going to bat Alcides Escobar first" Yost, lol.  But even if he doesn't lose ABs, worth for fantasy owners to note his career struggles versus lefties. 

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12 minutes ago, intothedarkness said:

the guy is a stud and a potential first-second round fantasy pick next year. They aren't gonna platoon their best hitter outside of Merrifield. 

 

You go ahead and take this guy in the 1st round.... 😂

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13 minutes ago, intothedarkness said:

you find it funny now. Quote me on this and we can talk in october

 

Look...even if this guy is Nolan Arenado the rest of the year I’m gonna remember the other 8 years that he was terrible. 

 

But go go ahead and lose your league by passing on proven talent. Not my problem. 

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27 minutes ago, Stickfig13 said:

 

Look...even if this guy is Nolan Arenado the rest of the year I’m gonna remember the other 8 years that he was terrible. 

 

But go go ahead and lose your league by passing on proven talent. Not my problem. 

you don't have to be a jack a**. Just theorizing about fake baseball lol. Is this how you talk to people in real life?

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