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Hunter Dozier 2019 Outlook


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12 minutes ago, intothedarkness said:

you don't have to be a jack a**. Just theorizing about fake baseball lol. Is this how you talk to people in real life?

I’m an owner and a believer in the breakout here, but curious as to what you think his final season numbers will look like.

I could see him moving into the top 60ish or so, but not sure I see a path to top 24 (1st/2nd round). 

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On the royals broadcast recently, they were talking about how he gives himself a "hit" for things like a productive out, 8+ pitch AB, certain statcast measurements, in addition to his normal hits, and

You guys are going to stress the crap out of yourselves if you read into month to month splits of almost any metric.

Ill eat my foot

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Just now, Backdoor Slider said:

I’m an owner and a believer in the breakout here, but curious as to what you think his final season numbers will look like.

I could see him moving into the top 60ish or so, but not sure I see a path to top 24 (1st/2nd round). 

I think his ceiling is 320/35/100+

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3 minutes ago, intothedarkness said:

I think his ceiling is 320/35/100+

 

2 minutes ago, treyjuice said:

Ill eat my foot

 

Yea that's extreme.  1% chance that happens.  His performance to date this season has been legit.  Statcast has his xBA at .294 and xSLG at .536.  But he's not suddenly Miguel Cabrera.

I'm thinking more like 280/25/90

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Just now, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

 

Yea that's extreme.  1% chance that happens.  His performance to date this season has been legit.  Statcast has his xBA at .294 and xSLG at .536.  But he's not suddenly Miguel Cabrera.

I'm thinking more like 280/25/90

I did say ceiling. 

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6 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

I'm thinking more like 280/25/90

I will be thrilled with that for a guy I got off the wire in early April who has become a fixture at UTIL in my lineup (roto league but no CI/MI) and who can also be plugged in at 1B/3B. Those are basically Anthony Rizzo Lite numbers.

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3 minutes ago, rf_haymaker said:

I will be thrilled with that for a guy I got off the wire in early April who has become a fixture at UTIL in my lineup (roto league but no CI/MI) and who can also be plugged in at 1B/3B. Those are basically Anthony Rizzo Lite numbers.

 

Shoot that was Rizzo's exact line last year pretty much haha 😍

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1 hour ago, intothedarkness said:

I'm putting it on 10-20%

Only 3 people in baseball hit over .320 last year that qualified for batting title. Only 4 people hit .300 and 30+ HRs. 10 if you regress to a .290 BA.

 You basically saying his Ceiling is JDM/Nolan Arenado with a 10% chance.

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Hitting as DH today against a RHP.  Gutierriez also starting at 3B. Whit at CF.  Hamilton hits the bench.  

 

Still early, but with Lopez up, looks like they are going to move Whit around all over the field. Also looks like they are going to keep giving relatively consistent ABs for Gutierrez at third. Dozier will probably move between 3B, DH and 1B. 

 

 

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18 minutes ago, bluefrogguy said:

Hitting as DH today against a RHP.  Gutierriez also starting at 3B. Whit at CF.  Hamilton hits the bench.  

 

Still early, but with Lopez up, looks like they are going to move Whit around all over the field. Also looks like they are going to keep giving relatively consistent ABs for Gutierrez at third. Dozier will probably move between 3B, DH and 1B. 

 

 

Also noticed he will be lower in the order which hurts his counting stats on a bad offense. I guess the royals don’t believe he can keep it up either

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4 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Also noticed he will be lower in the order which hurts his counting stats on a bad offense. I guess the royals don’t believe he can keep it up either

I mean he's gone from 4th to 5th, if lopez is good and actually provides another solid offensive presence in front of him I dont really see moving down 1 spot affecting him. 

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1 minute ago, mmcc1029 said:

I mean he's gone from 4th to 5th, if lopez is good and actually provides another solid offensive presence in front of him I dont really see moving down 1 spot affecting him. 

I remember him batting 3rd I think when he was ballin’...now that he is regressing, he is getting lower in the lineup

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54 minutes ago, street sharks said:

 

I'm fairly certain only hit 3rd when gordon was getting a day off

Yeah obviously a hold for now although his value is trending down at the moment

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17 hours ago, papasmurf said:

We have our first legitimate slump. He is not walking and not hitting the ball hard. Hope he can make adjustments quickly.

 

?

His walk rate is the only thing that's been down lately.  

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=15117&position=1B/3B&statArr=211,110,107,34&legend=1,2,3,4&split=base&time=game&ymin=&ymax=&start=2019&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=5&dStatArray=

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