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Homer Bailey 2019 Outlook


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So when I woke up this morning I saw someone in one of my leagues added Homer Bailey. I laughed for a bit, then laughed some more, then since I had the day off went to his Fangraphs page to see why someone could've possibly added him. He hasn't been fantasy relevant (aside from stacking hitters against him in DFS) in several years and even in his peak he was only an SP3/SP4 type. But through 4 starts this year he's pitching to a 10.57k/9, 2.74bb/9, 3.36FIP, and 3.45xFIP. His fastball velo remains in line with the past 3 lousy years at 93.8, but his swinging strike rate has increased from 8.8% to 11.5%. He's now pitching in a pretty good home park, backed by a good defense, and in the worst hitting division in baseball. The biggest change I see is he is now throwing his splitter 26.6% of the time, up from 15.9% last year. His splitter is generating whiffs 25.5% of the time. I say this with great trepidation, but maybe he becomes fantasy viable again this year as an SP6/SP7 type now that he's healthy and out of GABP.

 

 

 

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Someone laughed in one of my leagues too but I defended the addition. Not many people are looking for "this year's Anibal Sanchez," a Veteran who has been thought of as completely done, but throws various pitches, and is trying to use a change in pitch-mix (anti-Fastball brigade) to improve results. 

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With pitching in 12-team or deeper leagues this year being rough on all fronts, I'm taking a chance on a two-start week. Everyone else on the wire is mediocre trash, might as well ride the hot hand if the underlying stats match up. His control has been good and he's striking out a lot of batters, both good signs.

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26 minutes ago, elsegundo said:

I drank the FAAB Kool-Aid on Homer Bailey, clearly I should have known better.

I started this thread. I’d understand if my posting privileges were revoked for a few days.

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1 hour ago, meh2 said:

I started this thread. I’d understand if my posting privileges were revoked for a few days.

lmaaao i should be banned from my league for grabbing him

 

screw his "advanced stats"

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  • 2 months later...
  • 3 weeks later...
On 7/15/2019 at 9:06 AM, bigpinero said:

Thoughts on him on Oakland? He's been pitching well over the past month or so. Now he'll pitch for a playoff contender in a pitcher friendly park.

like him, but not starting him tonight.

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