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Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. 2019 Outlook


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5 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Fair enough...he is still producing negative value on most player ratings though. My point is that even if he becomes a good hitter, his team around him will still suck for probably his entire career unless some cap is implemented

 

Why?  The Blue Jays went into this year with one of the best farm systems in the league with Vlad, Biggio, Bichette, Jansen, Pearson etc.  They're not on SD or ATL's level but they're comfortably in the next tier.  Toronto is also a massive city (2nd only to NYC and LA) so it's not exactly a small market team either if they can drum up interest. 

Baseball is fickle but it's easily conceivable that they become relevant in the next 3-4 years.

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[Enough with the fat jokes and incessant bickering. All of it is juvenile and none of it is clever. Move along.]

I look forward to quoting the terrible Vlad takes for years to come. 

Don’t know much about him.   He any good?

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Fair enough...he is still producing negative value on most player ratings though. My point is that even if he becomes a good hitter, his team around him will still suck for probably his entire career unless some cap is implemented

 

This is just a ridiculous, uneducated comment. From 2013-2018 the lowest their payroll has been is 11th and that was last year with the start of the rebuild. This isn't a small market, rinkydink team. This is a team with deep pockets, a good TV deal and 2.5+ million streaming through the gate annually. 

Is there anything about that that leaves you with the impression that the Rogers Communications is suddenly strapped for cash? 

 

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2 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

Why?  The Blue Jays went into this year with one of the best farm systems in the league with Vlad, Biggio, Bichette, Jansen, Pearson etc.  They're not on SD or ATL's level but they're comfortably in the next tier.  Toronto is also a massive city (2nd only to NYC and LA) so it's not exactly a small market team either if they can drum up interest. 

Baseball is fickle but it's easily conceivable that they become relevant in the next 3-4 years.

Irrelevant and irrelevant. Jays have been in the playoffs twice in the past 25 years for a reason. How many times have they parlayed their farm system into an elite team? Zero? They traded for an MVP a few years ago (from the A's; no better proof of how irrelevant a farm system is if you won't pay the money to turn it into something worthwhile) and, well, here we are, in the midst of a rebuild, so that tells you all you need to know about how that went.

 

And being a large city (especially a Canadian city with a franchise playing America's pastime) is no guarantee that ownership is going to shell out Dodger money to field an actual title contender. Sure, it's conceivable, as you say, but it's just as conceivable that they're a nothing 3-4 years from today.

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1 minute ago, miasma16 said:

Irrelevant and irrelevant. Jays have been in the playoffs twice in the past 25 years for a reason. How many times have they parlayed their farm system into an elite team? Zero? They traded for an MVP a few years ago (from the A's; no better proof of how irrelevant a farm system is if you won't pay the money to turn it into something worthwhile) and, well, here we are, in the midst of a rebuild, so that tells you all you need to know about how that went.

 

And being a large city (especially a Canadian city with a franchise playing America's pastime) is no guarantee that ownership is going to shell out Dodger money to field an actual title contender. Sure, it's conceivable, as you say, but it's just as conceivable that they're a nothing 3-4 years from today.

 

"Irrelevant" seems strong.  No farm systems and potential fanbase isn't a guarantee of success.  Far from it as you pointed out.  I would argue that both are almost prerequisites for success though. Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, Sox, Cubs etc aren't shelling out the money they do if they don't have fans paying for merchandise and tickets and most (not all) successful team sin the majors right now built off of a young core of homegrown talent.

Will the Jays be able to capitalize? Probably not.  But to automatically assume that they'll be a bad team for the duration of a 20 year old's career seems a bit extreme.

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20 minutes ago, miasma16 said:

Irrelevant and irrelevant. Jays have been in the playoffs twice in the past 25 years for a reason. How many times have they parlayed their farm system into an elite team? Zero? They traded for an MVP a few years ago (from the A's; no better proof of how irrelevant a farm system is if you won't pay the money to turn it into something worthwhile) and, well, here we are, in the midst of a rebuild, so that tells you all you need to know about how that went.

 

And being a large city (especially a Canadian city with a franchise playing America's pastime) is no guarantee that ownership is going to shell out Dodger money to field an actual title contender. Sure, it's conceivable, as you say, but it's just as conceivable that they're a nothing 3-4 years from today.

 

What does 25 years ago have to do with the team, front office and coaching staff of today? Clearly you think there's a strong connection in using "reasoning" that since they didn't make the playoffs 25 years ago, it has an effect on the team of today.

I'm not even a Blue Jays fan, but saying their farm system is irrelevant is just silly. And trying to then say they had an equal farm system years ago and blew it? What? When? When did they have guys with as much upside and ranked as highly as Vlad, Bo, Biggio, Groshans, Martinez, Pearson, etc?

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Selective end dates/PA samples aside, he's been underwhelming. The lineup thing is a slight detriment but he plays in a great ballpark and in a great division for ballparks so that kinda offsets the issue to me. The plate discipline isn't quite what we expected it to be right off the bat... maybe that was unfair, but the numbers he was putting up in the minors were so otherworldly that you hoped against hope it would translate to MLB right away. ROS I'd hope for .285, 15 HR and 40 RBIs at this point. 

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On 6/2/2019 at 12:42 AM, tommyGunZ said:

Are those folks who are bashing Vlad taking into account the production Vlad owners got the first few weeks from their  pre-Vlad-callup plug in option? Seems kind of silly not to add they production in.  

Point invalid, Vladdy wasn’t on this injury list therefore he took up a whole roster spot, essentially your “replacement” was already on ur roster

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45 minutes ago, absknicks said:

Selective end dates/PA samples aside, he's been underwhelming. The lineup thing is a slight detriment but he plays in a great ballpark and in a great division for ballparks so that kinda offsets the issue to me. The plate discipline isn't quite what we expected it to be right off the bat... maybe that was unfair, but the numbers he was putting up in the minors were so otherworldly that you hoped against hope it would translate to MLB right away. ROS I'd hope for .285, 15 HR and 40 RBIs at this point. 

 

I'll take the over on 15 homeruns ROS if you want to take action on that.

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If you make it to AAA as a 21 year old and mash, you're in a good position to be at least a productive player in the bigs, if not an all-star.  Vlad turns 21 next March. He's incredibly young for the majors and will be for the next few years. He's going to be fine, and potentially even good ROS.  He hit 20 HRs in the minors last year.  Some people were projecting 40 HRs in the bigs this year.   Let's be clear here. The problem isn't with Vlad, it's with ridiculous expectations. In all honesty, even if he hit 40 bombs this year with a 320 average, the process that led you to take him in round 3 based off what we knew heading into this year was flawed. 

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1 hour ago, absknicks said:

Selective end dates/PA samples aside, he's been underwhelming. The lineup thing is a slight detriment but he plays in a great ballpark and in a great division for ballparks so that kinda offsets the issue to me. The plate discipline isn't quite what we expected it to be right off the bat... maybe that was unfair, but the numbers he was putting up in the minors were so otherworldly that you hoped against hope it would translate to MLB right away. ROS I'd hope for .285, 15 HR and 40 RBIs at this point. 

It's only selective if there is no meaning behind it.  He was moved into the 2 hole of the line up and not out since.  The information/stats from that date in time is relevant to his current output. 

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1 hour ago, kelle1sa said:

It's only selective if there is no meaning behind it.  He was moved into the 2 hole of the line up and not out since.  The information/stats from that date in time is relevant to his current output. 

 

And similarly his outlook going forward.

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2 hours ago, kelle1sa said:

It's only selective if there is no meaning behind it.  He was moved into the 2 hole of the line up and not out since.  The information/stats from that date in time is relevant to his current output. 

 

Seems to me you're putting too much weight on his place in the order... as if hitting 5th precluded him from producing. 

Not saying it doesn't play a role, but you're using it as a crutch to cancel out 40-50 PA where he did virtually nothing. I'd rather take the numbers as a whole since it's a limited sample to begin with.

 

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4 hours ago, absknicks said:

 

Seems to me you're putting too much weight on his place in the order... as if hitting 5th precluded him from producing. 

Not saying it doesn't play a role, but you're using it as a crutch to cancel out 40-50 PA where he did virtually nothing. I'd rather take the numbers as a whole since it's a limited sample to begin with.

 

If a pitcher changes his arm slot or a batter adds a leg kick, are the results after (good or bad) significant? Over 92 PAs since a change in his routine, whether you think it's significant or minuscule, has lead to different (better) results.  I said he wasn't lighting the league on fire but to pretend that the change in line up spot has no importance when the results say otherwise doesn't add up IMO. 

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5 hours ago, absknicks said:

 

Seems to me you're putting too much weight on his place in the order... as if hitting 5th precluded him from producing. 

Not saying it doesn't play a role, but you're using it as a crutch to cancel out 40-50 PA where he did virtually nothing. I'd rather take the numbers as a whole since it's a limited sample to begin with.

 

 

When Vlad was batting 5th he was seeing less pitches in the zone than anyone in baseball. Someone cited that stat. Yes he was chasing too much but he was young and aggressive when he was called up. 

 

A combination of seeing better pitches from the two hole and being more selective has led to better results. Feel free to dismiss the difference but it is absolutely worth considering. 

 

 

Edited by hailtoyourvictor
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10 hours ago, kelle1sa said:

Since moving to the 2 hole on 5/10 across 92 PAs, he has the follow line:


.286/.348/.560; .378 wOBA & 139 wRC+; 6 HRs 11 Rs & 12 RBIs; 8/14 BB/SO. 

 

He's not setting the world on fire and the counting stats are what should be expected on this garbage team but to claim he has been a bust is a stretch.

 

That's now .294 with 7 HRs, 14 Rs, 15 RBis in 22 games.

 

 

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I simply paid a 4th round price tag because I remember owning Bryce when he came up against Hamels.  If Harper had only lived up to that moment in his career thus far, it was a legendary start - and I ONLY saw it live because I owned Harper that year.  I've even enjoyed watching Vlad as he struggled - sometimes the added value of a hyped younger players journey adds nonsensical value to the pick in fantasy.  Kind of like overvaluing a home/favorite player pick

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14 minutes ago, jahweedum said:

I simply paid a 4th round price tag because I remember owning Bryce when he came up against Hamels.  If Harper had only lived up to that moment in his career thus far, it was a legendary start - and I ONLY saw it live because I owned Harper that year.  I've even enjoyed watching Vlad as he struggled - sometimes the added value of a hyped younger players journey adds nonsensical value to the pick in fantasy.  Kind of like overvaluing a home/favorite player pick

 

I agree with this completely. People forget that this is supposed to be fun, and fun means a lot of different things for different people,

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