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Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. 2019 Outlook


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I understand the anger...we've been waiting for this kid for yrs and the hype just was out of control.....especially after Soto took the league by storm at his age last year....I have him in 2 long term keeper leagues and am basically looking at this year like a rookie QB....just show some signs by the end of the season as figuring things out....I dont see the point in sending him down...the Jays stink so take the year for the kid to figure things out...hoping for the light to go on by mid August and get some good end of the year return.  

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12 minutes ago, Big Tuna said:

I understand the anger...we've been waiting for this kid for yrs and the hype just was out of control.....especially after Soto took the league by storm at his age last year....I have him in 2 long term keeper leagues and am basically looking at this year like a rookie QB....just show some signs by the end of the season as figuring things out....I dont see the point in sending him down...the Jays stink so take the year for the kid to figure things out...hoping for the light to go on by mid August and get some good end of the year return.  

 

soto, acuna and even Torres and andujar

 

people assumed vlad was higher ranked than 3 of those 4 (or all of them) so he  must have to do as well or better.

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18 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

soto, acuna and even Torres and andujar

 

people assumed vlad was higher ranked than 3 of those 4 (or all of them) so he  must have to do as well or better.

 

Acuna did not have a strong first half last year either. I don't feel like looking up the numbers again but I posted them earlier and they were pretty weak. 

Not saying Vlad is Acuna, but if we're going to look at him as an example of a rookie killing it the context of his first half/second half splits are important. 

Edited by Baur10
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I don’t so much care about the stats. But when you watch him, doesn’t look like a swing that plays up to big league stuff. He is slow to the ball and a lot of sloppy swings. Tons of soft contact and roll overs. He’s not driving the ball. I am not piling on, even a few of his HR are awkward like they aren’t getting a ton of backspin

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38 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

 

Acuna did not have a strong first half last year either. I don't feel like looking up the numbers again but I posted them earlier and they were pretty weak. 

Not saying Vlad is Acuna, but if we're going to look at him as an example of a rookie killing it the context of his first half/second half splits are important. 

Acuna in first half:

184 PA, 7 HR, 19 RBI, 2 SB, .249 avg, .742 OPS

 

He absolutely torched the Marlins last in second half of year, 7 HR - 18 RBI - 3 SB - .342 - 1.129 OPS.  All that in 19 games.  

 

Vlad had almost an identical first half of Acuna did in 2018:

253 PA, 8 HR, 25 RBI, .249 avg, .741 OPS.  Didn’t put SBs down because that body isn’t moving on bases.  

But average and OPS exact same.  The hope here is that he would find his Marlins the way Acuna tortured the Marlins and propelled his second half.  Obvious candidate is Baltimore, in 6 games vs that trash heap he’s 9 for 22 (.409 avg) but no homers yet in 6 games.  He has 10 games left vs the Orioles pitching staff.  That’s obviously the most optimal time for him to make up for lost time.  6 of them are in late September though so owners in redraft, that might not do much good.  His schedule is actually really tough in second half, a lot of Rays (13 games) who have an elite staff, inner league against Dodgers.  Every game vs trash staffs is key for Vlad’s second half.  Hopefully he can take advantage.

 

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From listening to a game broadcast right before the break, it sounds like the coaches are noticing Vlad pressing. He’s trying to hit every pitch instead of sitting on his pitch. So he’s getting antsy and learning the hard way at the major league level while he’s getting soft stuff away and being jammed inside with hard stuff. 

 

He’ll be fine. He’ll be great. Sometimes it takes time. Again.. he’s 20. 

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57 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

I don’t so much care about the stats. 

 

Well you've complained about the stats multiple times, do I dont this that's accurate. 

58 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

 But when you watch him, doesn’t look like a swing that plays up to big league stuff.

 

If I had to bet, this will not age well.

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Well you've complained about the stats multiple times, do I dont this that's accurate. 

 

If I had to bet, this will not age well.

A lot of the stuff I have said has aged well though. I don’t think you would bet it, If given the option. And all anyone here does is stat him. I actually don’t, and you won’t find a post where I have. I go more off what I see on him and all guys. 

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29 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I would absolutely bet the notion that Vlad's bat will play up against big league stuff. Very easily. 

That’s open ended though, and when? Next year? Two years? Three years He OPS .823 and then you were right? 

 

If he is 80/80 with this slop on scout grades then what was bellinger? Trout? Lol. He will be better but he is awful now and there’s no basis to say he will be what he was advertised as except maybe minor league numbers and to be honest I don’t see I don’t see how he was graded that. I watch a lot of baseball. If he’s 80/80 other guys should have been too

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2 hours ago, 20Duval904 said:

From listening to a game broadcast right before the break, it sounds like the coaches are noticing Vlad pressing. He’s trying to hit every pitch instead of sitting on his pitch. So he’s getting antsy and learning the hard way at the major league level while he’s getting soft stuff away and being jammed inside with hard stuff. 

 

He’ll be fine. He’ll be great. Sometimes it takes time. Again.. he’s 20. 

He's been a bit better on the road this year, and the idea he's been pressing to impress the home fans has crossed my mind. 

Still, very young and alot to learn. He'll get there. 

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19 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

That’s open ended though, and when? Next year? Two years? Three years He OPS .823 and then you were right? 

 

If he is 80/80 with this slop on scout grades then what was bellinger? Trout? Lol. He will be better but he is awful now and there’s no basis to say he will be what he was advertised as except maybe minor league numbers and to be honest I don’t see I don’t see how he was graded that. I watch a lot of baseball. If he’s 80/80 other guys should have been too

 

Not sure what Baseball America's grades on him matter for you saying "doesn’t look like a swing that plays up to big league stuff." Seems like you're changing the argument. What was advertised is irrelevant.  You make your own decisions. Take responsibility and don't blame advertisements. 

I never paid the price tag of an 80/80 bat on him in his age 20 season. If you did, thats on you and to everyone else that did. I think he will be a good hitter, whether ROS, next year, or after that. I stand by it. We'll see if his swing doesn't play up to big league stuff like you did. 

I think in the minor league thread someone complained about an owner not accepting his offer of Trout to recieve Vlad (before the season started).  I told that user he was dumb to make that offer and his leaguemate was dumb to decline it.

If the bar is Mike Trout, Im willing to safely predict that to be a disappointment on everyone. So no, I'm not going to predict Vlad to ever be Mike Trout. I think that's an unrealistic expectation. 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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1 hour ago, kidtwentytwo said:

He’s hitting .258 in day games vs .236 at night 

Hitting .284 in open stadiums vs .100 in some and .224 in retractables.

If that doesn’t hint at a vitamin D deficiency, what does?

Agreed...need to install a uvb sun lamp at the plate.

Am I really this stupid that I still believe in this sack of potatoes?

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3 hours ago, rcarena said:

He's been a bit better on the road this year, and the idea he's been pressing to impress the home fans has crossed my mind. 

Still, very young and alot to learn. He'll get there. 

 

Good point. I know Eloy admitted that exact thing to the media earlier this year as well because all of his early HR’s came on the road.

 

It’s not the early explosion of success we wanted, but he’ll be fine. He has more 115 MPH exit velo’s than anyone in baseball and has just an 18% K rate and nearly a 10% walk rate. So it’s all gonna be ok.

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10 hours ago, Big Tuna said:

I understand the anger...we've been waiting for this kid for yrs and the hype just was out of control.....especially after Soto took the league by storm at his age last year....I have him in 2 long term keeper leagues and am basically looking at this year like a rookie QB....just show some signs by the end of the season as figuring things out....I dont see the point in sending him down...the Jays stink so take the year for the kid to figure things out...hoping for the light to go on by mid August and get some good end of the year return.  

 

People don’t draft rookie QBs in the 4th round in redraft leagues though. Ever.

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On 4/24/2019 at 10:53 PM, Fantasy Monk said:

 

The MLB site has his first 10 season all mapped out.

https://www.mlb.com/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-projections-10-years-c303459710

Well, fire the dolt who wrote this article.

 

2019 season (age 20)
Optimistic projection: .330/.402/.560 (.414 wOBA), 27 HR, 5.7 WAR
Comp: Frank Robinson (1956)
Standard projection: .300/.365/.509 (.376 wOBA), 21 HR, 4.1 WAR
Comp: Bryce Harper (2013)
Pessimistic projection: .270/.329/.458 (.339 wOBA), 14 HR, 2.6 WAR

 

 

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