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Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. 2019 Outlook


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13 hours ago, 20Duval904 said:

From listening to a game broadcast right before the break, it sounds like the coaches are noticing Vlad pressing. He’s trying to hit every pitch instead of sitting on his pitch. So he’s getting antsy and learning the hard way at the major league level while he’s getting soft stuff away and being jammed inside with hard stuff. 

 

He’ll be fine. He’ll be great. Sometimes it takes time. Again.. he’s 20. 

This is actually what Eloy said led to his bad start. Couldn't calm down, felt the weight of expectations, and it through him off.  At some point he said it just clicked for him and he felt calmer and that was it. 11 HR, .270 BA in his last 32 games vs 6 HR, .225 BA in his first 33. One hopes Vlad will have that a-ha moment of his own. It's actually quite rare these days for uber-prospects (on the hitting side) to completely bust with the advances that have been made in scouting. This is not a guy that's going to hit .255 with 15-20 HR a year. It may not happen this season, but Vlad will be a stud. 

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[Enough with the fat jokes and incessant bickering. All of it is juvenile and none of it is clever. Move along.]

I look forward to quoting the terrible Vlad takes for years to come. 

Don’t know much about him.   He any good?

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12 hours ago, mevins31 said:

A lot of the stuff I have said has aged well though. I don’t think you would bet it, If given the option. And all anyone here does is stat him. I actually don’t, and you won’t find a post where I have. I go more off what I see on him and all guys. 

 

His hands are as explosive as any I've seen from a RHB.

He's 20 years old and people have lost perspective on how crazy it is that a 20 year old is in MLB period.   Spoiled by Soto, Tatis, and to an extent Acuna.  Even Trout and Arod struggled somewhat in their first exposure.

 

Plus the Toronto hitting coach is beyond putrid so he's getting no help from the coaching.

People drafted him (or ranked him) at a price where he'd have to nail it from jump without any adjustment period.  

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10 hours ago, 96mnc said:

. . . Plus the Toronto hitting coach is beyond putrid so he's getting no help from the coaching. . . .

I'd feel better if I knew Uncle Wilton was around.

 

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10 hours ago, 96mnc said:

. . . People drafted him (or ranked him) at a price where he'd have to nail it from jump without any adjustment period.  

To be fair he hit the ground running at every promotion (I read somewhere that the jump to AA is the one to watch). That's kinda why it won't surprise anyone too much if he has an Acuna 2nd half. Their minor league arcs were similar in so far as adjusting to higher levels.

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Today is the day.  If it’s going to happen in Boston it has to happen today.  At first pitch it will be 86 with not a cloud in the sky.  Could be the most optimal source of vitamin D he’s been exposed to this season.  Tomorrow lightening in forecast and Thursday rain.  Andrew Cashner is probably going to be nervous in his first start in front of actual fans that don’t have paper bags over their heads.  So it could be a ripe day for Vlad to destroy a few baseballs and soak up some D.  Go get em young man.  

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Not saying it can't happen but I'm skeptical of all the "big 2nd half" prognostications. Just from watching a lot of his PA this doesn't seem like a guy who is particularly close. He's not barreling balls up right at guys... he's swinging at balls way out of the zone and making mostly soft contact. His Barrels/PA% is currently 5.7%, that's right around guys like JT Riddle and Ronny Rodriguez.

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2 hours ago, bdy1 said:

To be fair he hit the ground running at every promotion (I read somewhere that the jump to AA is the one to watch). That's kinda why it won't surprise anyone too much if he has an Acuna 2nd half. Their minor league arcs were similar in so far as adjusting to higher levels.

 

The jump to AA is the measuring for the true physical ability and skills for a hitting prospect.

 

I realize this is a 2019 outlook thread but nothing has happened this year that has changed his long-term valuation imo (unless that hitting coach isn't fired).

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43 minutes ago, mevins31 said:

He got a hit last night 

And an rbi and a run.  And it was the most sunlight he’s seen in a game all season, also.  Super small sample size, but the vitamin D theory could be getting some legs.  Could you imagine this beast in Arlington or LA for 81 sets of outdoor, fresh, sunlighted air?  Good gawd.

Edited by Cmilne23
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Really no choice except to drop him in 12 teams or less in redraft. He is a waste of a roster spot. I think he is going to follow the Mazara career path. Up at 20 and never adjusts 

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21 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Really no choice except to drop him in 12 teams or less in redraft. He is a waste of a roster spot. I think he is going to follow the Mazara career path. Up at 20 and never adjusts 

cc: @oldtakesexposed ✍🏼

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Let'a talk numbers. 

His peripherals are not good.  Average to bad.  Might be too small a sample but positive regression not happening.

Average at best this season.

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5 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

cc: @oldtakesexposed ✍🏼

Wish you did this on all the posts of mine that you mocked. I was spot on for 95/100 of them 

😂

 

If hes so good at hitting the ball hard—why doesn’t he ever hit it hard? Like what’s happened here? He is not even close with a guy like Yordan Alvarez.

I really think trusting him in the hands of Charlie Montoyo (dunce manager) and nobody hitting coach whom I won’t even give a name credit to has destroyed our boy

Edited by mevins31
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2 hours ago, mevins31 said:

Good thing Montoyo sat him against Rick Porcello who they hung some runs on but felt it was smart to run him out against Sale. I can’t believe this 

 

He’ll probably sit against Jordan Zimmermann, Derek Norris, and Soto now vs. Detroit too. 

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I’ve had this set circled for a month on the calendar for future #14 overall pick in 2020 redrafts.  You don’t need super clean, crisp, vitamin D infused air to slaughter Zimmermann, Chuck Norris, and some guy who is ruining Juan’s last name — Gregory Soto.  This could be the worst talent trio that Major League Baseball has seen since the Mariners ran Leake, Kerosine Caraseti and Milone out.  There isn’t a single redeeming quality either of these 3 Tiger arms possess inside the diamond.  If this soon to be top 15 draft pick in 2020 drafts can’t hit these bums, then Mevins might have a heart attack and I’ll have to work overtime to revive him.  

Edited by Cmilne23
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4 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

I’ve had this set circled for a month on the calendar for future #14 overall pick in 2020 redrafts.  You don’t need super clean, crisp, vitamin D infused air to slaughter Zimmermann, Chuck Norris, and some guy who is ruining Juan’s last name — Gregory Soto.  This could be the worst talent trio that Major League Baseball has seen since the Mariners ran Leake, Kerosine Caraseti and Milone out.  There isn’t a single redeeming quality either of these 3 Tiger arms possess inside the diamond.  If this soon to be top 15 draft pick in 2020 drafts can’t hit these bums, then Mevins might have a heart attack and I’ll have to work overtime to revive him.  

 

Thing is... he’s been gonna get ____ then _____ then oh Boston he will hit. Then he never does. Even his home runs have looked kind of awkward.

 

He is fat. He’s overrated. He’s on one of my 4 teams which I don’t take that serious. I feel duped by the politics of the scouting baseball world. And I love the sport so yes I want him to be good to popularize it in 3 countries. 

 

But hes not good. It stinks 

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This thread has gotten out of hand. This kid is 20 years old. He will be fine. If you can't handle it, drop him in your redrafts. If you got him in a keeper or dynasty, you're set. Just relax.

Edited by RedRaider27
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17 minutes ago, RedRaider27 said:

This thread has gotten out of hand. This kid is 20 years old. He will be fine. If you can't handle it, drop him in your redrafts. If you got him in a keeper or dynasty, you're set. Just relax.

Exactly. I saw Yordan Alvarez mentioned in the thread. When Yordan was 20, he was putting up similar numbers to Vlad's right now... except he was in High-A. There are many good MLB players who were struggling in the low minors or even struggling in college at age 20. Vlad is still way ahead of the curve.

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It's not quite as uncommon for a 20-year-old to come up and produce these days as it has been in years past. Soto, Tatis and Acuna are the most recent examples. Gleyber Torres came up at 21 last year and produced immediately. And keep in mind Vlad was ranked as better than all of those guys by virtually every evaluator. So yeah, the fact that those guys are tearing it up and Vlad has been awful is a bit concerning in the short-term. 

 

And let's not pretend anyone expected him to be this awful in his debut. I was one of the people who thought his ADP before the season was ridiculous but if you told me he'd be worth -0.4 fWAR with an 88 wRC+ in nearly 300 PA I'd call you crazy. And I'm pretty sure anyone being honest would admit the same.

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