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Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. 2019 Outlook


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I've been benching him as well. Hopefully this gets him going. 

I was telling a buddy that he may of just been the ultimate trade chip this season due to the hype. If you drafted after his injury or one week after the season started like all my leagues he was falling late 5th-7th round. You could ship him out when his call up was announced for under performing 2nd round value which i did in one league. The other time we could of got big value was after the Derby I moved a share to a eager owner.

Thinking about it could be a good strategy with really hyped rookies in future years. Draft them hold them till call up is announced and get big time value. Sure you'll miss out on a few hyped guys killing it but its going to be very +EV longterm. 

I still believe in the potential. I'm holding my last 3 shares and targeting him next year either way.

Edited by buzzkilloton
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13 minutes ago, buzzkilloton said:

I've been benching him as well. Hopefully this gets him going. 

I was telling a buddy that he may of just been the ultimate trade chip this season due to the hype. If you drafted after his injury or one week after the season like all my leagues he was falling late 5th-7th round. You could ship him out when his call up was announced for under performing 2nd round value which i did in one league. The other time we could of got big value was after the Derby I moved a share to a eager owner.

Thinking about it could be a good strategy with really hyped rookies in future years. Draft them hold them till call up is announced and get big time value. Sure you'll miss out on a few hyped guys but its going to be very +EV longterm. 

I still believe in the potential. I'm holding my last 3 shares and targeting him next year either way.

 

Conversely with young plus hit tool prospects I've usually tried to "buy" in the second half or the second year if they struggle early on. Toolsy types and swing-and-miss power guys not so much, but the special hit tool players can return serious value sometimes once they adjust.

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46 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

how is this guy 95% owned in redrafts(yahoo) ??

Because people buy way too much into the hype. They all spent way too high of a pick or way too many auction dollars on him and are refusing to admit they screwed up.

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3 hours ago, Dislimb said:

Because people buy way too much into the hype. They all spent way too high of a pick or way too many auction dollars on him and are refusing to admit they screwed up.

In some cases. Others may see a lot of upside and may not think a bench spot is too high a price to pay to wait and see on it. 

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On 7/18/2019 at 3:50 PM, Cmilne23 said:

I’ve had this set circled for a month on the calendar for future #14 overall pick in 2020 redrafts.  You don’t need super clean, crisp, vitamin D infused air to slaughter Zimmermann, Chuck Norris, and some guy who is ruining Juan’s last name — Gregory Soto.  This could be the worst talent trio that Major League Baseball has seen since the Mariners ran Leake, Kerosine Caraseti and Milone out.  There isn’t a single redeeming quality either of these 3 Tiger arms possess inside the diamond.  If this soon to be top 15 draft pick in 2020 drafts can’t hit these bums, then Mevins might have a heart attack and I’ll have to work overtime to revive him.  

Prescient.

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On 7/19/2019 at 1:53 PM, Stickfig13 said:

 

I’m only calling out the absurd expectations. We all saw what he can do in the derby. He just needs to put it all together. 

Derby means nothing, it's basically batting practice.  Ichiro could put on a show hitting bombs during batting practice, he's literally done just that.  Didn't turn him into a HR hitter though.  Just like how hitting a ton of bombs off of 60 mph pitches doesn't mean Vlad will automatically turn the corner.  Top prospects fail more than they succeed and we have been spoiled by prospects the last few years.

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29 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

off of a guy with a 9 era

 

im not sure Trout's MVP award is in any trouble

Wow, such a wonderful and thoughtful post. Remind me again how legendary Trout was during his first call up?!?

I can’t stand how pretentious people are in this thread. We get it.Vlad isn’t the immediate superstar many of us were hoping for and/or thought he was going to be. But you seem like a D bag posting snide comments like this.

He obviously has immense talent and is going to be a good hitter in this league for a long time. Instead of bashing him and everyone who owns him, let’s give it a bit of time. Maybe he’ll surprise you. 

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1 hour ago, tywalson said:

Wow, such a wonderful and thoughtful post. Remind me again how legendary Trout was during his first call up?!?

I can’t stand how pretentious people are in this thread. We get it.Vlad isn’t the immediate superstar many of us were hoping for and/or thought he was going to be. But you seem like a D bag posting snide comments like this.

He obviously has immense talent and is going to be a good hitter in this league for a long time. Instead of bashing him and everyone who owns him, let’s give it a bit of time. Maybe he’ll surprise you. 

Trout had less than half the ABs.  By this time, he was well on his way to winning the ROY and being 2nd in the MVP.  

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5 hours ago, 20Duval904 said:

Reading some posts in this thread, you would think that no star player in the history of sports has ever gotten off to a slow start in their career

Reading this thread you would think the guy is on pace for 40 HR's the way his bi-weekly HR's are celebrated.  

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30 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

I gotta say I'm a little disappointed that he hit his first grand slam and not one of you pieced together a decent Denny's joke.

Step it up people.

 

Cant believe we missed that one.  Most people were just relieved to have a tremendous weight off their shoulders after that salami was hit.  

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