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Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. 2019 Outlook


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[Enough with the fat jokes and incessant bickering. All of it is juvenile and none of it is clever. Move along.]

I look forward to quoting the terrible Vlad takes for years to come. 

Don’t know much about him.   He any good?

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1 hour ago, jfazz23 said:

when does he go next year?   id be willing to take him in the 8th-10th round in a 12 teamer.  but i think he will go much earlier 

In some leagues he will go in the range you mention - but my guess on an ADP is like somewhere 65-75 overall

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17 hours ago, IDGAFOS said:

lol remember when he strung together a few decent days and it meant he was worth his re-draft value?  Pepperidge Farms remembers.  

 

All of it against Orioles pitching, go figure. Fortunately, he’s got a 6 more games against Baltimore in the final 2 weeks. Unfortunately, those that drafted him at his ADP are probably not even in the playoffs.

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He’s definitely below “projections” at this point. His WRC+ is down to 107, which is short of every projection out there.

ZIPS had him projected lowest of all the big prognosticators. And they had him at .280/.349/.466 for 111 WRC+. And those projections would have been much higher if the juiced-ball had been factored in.

There’s enough time left that he could still get there or even catch his Dad’s numbers which were very much in danger just a couple weeks ago. Or I guess he could implode back down to AAA. 

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That  comment (and just one sadly) does not say he was worth his draft price. If that's the best we got, so be it. The generalization that one poster gave that people were saying people were saying he was worth his draft price was wrong.  Just like drafting him in round 3-4 was wrong. 

 

If you make the playoffs in a h2h league and a player you drafted goes nuts, you're obviously not going to be too upset overpaying a guy who wins you a playoff or championship. That doesn't mean he earned X round early value. I think most people know that.

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4 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

That  comment (and just one sadly) does not say he was worth his draft price. If that's the best we got, so be it. The generalization that one poster gave that people were saying people were saying he was worth his draft price was wrong.  Just like drafting him in round 3-4 was wrong. 

 

If you make the playoffs in a h2h league and a player you drafted goes nuts, you're obviously not going to be too upset overpaying a guy who wins you a playoff or championship. That doesn't mean he earned X round early value. I think most people know that.

 

what round in redraft are you comfortable takin him next year?

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I'm guessing his ADP will be in the 50s. Higher if he gets hot, lower if he stays cold.

It was well documented in this thread that his production would fall off as summer waned and his Vitamin D levels decreased. Maybe draft him early and then trade him before the deadline as the days are about to start getting shorter again.

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26 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

what round in redraft are you comfortable takin him next year?

 

Unless he goes bananas in the last 2 weeks, I doubt his ADP fluctuates much as a result of two meaningless weeks.  I'm probably not going to own him in redraft next year. I think his ADP will be higher (as in better) than the 50s. Kinda think he goes in the 3-4th round again, but he's a better bet next year assuming he starts in the majors and healthy. I don't know where I'd feel comfortable taking him, haven't done by 3b tiers yet. 3b is interesting. Like what do you do with Vlad, Eugenio, Bryant? I don't know what their ADPs will be, but I'm pretty comfortable taking whoever's left. 

I think I'd project him at 290-25/30 bombs if that helps. 

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29 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Unless he goes bananas in the last 2 weeks, I doubt his ADP fluctuates much as a result of two meaningless weeks.  I'm probably not going to own him in redraft next year. I think his ADP will be higher (as in better) than the 50s. Kinda think he goes in the 3-4th round again, but he's a better bet next year assuming he starts in the majors and healthy. I don't know where I'd feel comfortable taking him, haven't done by 3b tiers yet. 3b is interesting. Like what do you do with Vlad, Eugenio, Bryant? I don't know what their ADPs will be, but I'm pretty comfortable taking whoever's left. 

I think I'd project him at 290-25/30 bombs if that helps. 

 

yea.  he is like yordan to me(obviously not as good of a freshman year).  i like them both going forward but if they are going 2nd/3rd i dont think ill own.  especially if you have a later half pick in the first.  you can go Arenado or Rendon for 3b.  and then possibly target a Turner or Al. Mondesi to make up steals.

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Projecting his actual numbers seems very dependent on what if anything MLB does with the juiced ball.

My totally unscientific way of guessing his ADP in the 50s was to basically gauge how I think the public views him right now and then compare that to this season's draft. Guys with ADPs from 50-60 (ESPN) this year were Correa, Votto, Cain, Castellanos, and Rosario.

Ahead of that pack were Rendon, Benintendi, Albies, Bogaerts, and Khris Davis. Behind that pack were Eugenio, Ozuna, Gleyber, Haniger, and Realmuto. All in that order.

But like I said, that's more a reflection of how I think the public views him. If he goes there I probably won't get him. I mean I don't think a Vlad Jr. breakout next year is a bad bet. I just think I'd feel more comfortable at that price betting on a breakout for a guy that's going to get more than 0-1 SBs.

I do think these last couple weeks could make a difference in his outlook though since they still have a couple of series vs. the Orioles BP.

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6 hours ago, Fiveohnine said:

Projecting his actual numbers seems very dependent on what if anything MLB does with the juiced ball.

 

Semi off topic, but what do you think happens to the ball next year? Less juice or same amount of juice? Maybe more juice? Serious question.

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12 hours ago, UberRebel said:

 

Semi off topic, but what do you think happens to the ball next year? Less juice or same amount of juice? Maybe more juice? Serious question.

 

I don't know how anyone can answer this. I'm just going to assume the same until I hear differently.

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6 hours ago, Wytchclt55 said:

Has DTD next to his name on Yahoo! anyone know the story behind it?

Rookie phenom Vladimir Guerrero Jr. left the game in the ninth inning after sliding into second base and suffered a left rib injury on the play, according to Sportsnet’s Mike Wilner.

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