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Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. 2019 Outlook


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17 minutes ago, bigbossman said:

 

“You think you’ve done all your work, but by the end of it, you’re never sure anyone is going to sign until they do. I think we had a good connection with his uncle (Wilton, the agent), and with his dad (Vladimir Guerrero). And Alex clicked with the family right from the beginning. And Wilton remembered (Paul) Beeston from other things. There was all these Canadian connections with those guys.”

“Vladdy had always identified himself with Canada. He has very good memories about it. Every time you speak with him about Canada, you could see his eyes light up.”

Watching his mother in conversation with Anthopoulos in French may have been a turning point in striking a deal.

“She speaks fluent French and she was very proud that her son had a Canadian and Quebec birth certificate,” said Anthopoulos.

 

https://torontosun.com/sports/baseball/toronto-blue-jays/vladimir-guerrero-jr-blue-jays-seven-million-dollar-man

It makes me feel better thinking even if Dipoto had the money he would have screwed it up lol.

 

 

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[Enough with the fat jokes and incessant bickering. All of it is juvenile and none of it is clever. Move along.]

I look forward to quoting the terrible Vlad takes for years to come. 

Don’t know much about him.   He any good?

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5 minutes ago, radioflyer9 said:

They need to move him to the 3 or 4 hole. It’s dumb batting him 5.

He needs to earn it like everyone else...he has done little since his callup and looking like a redraft league bust so far

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8 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

He needs to earn it like everyone else...he has done little since his callup and looking like a redraft league bust so far

I get the strong feeling that this is as far low as a “buy low” he’s going to get lol

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1 hour ago, Wytchclt55 said:

I get the strong feeling that this is as far low as a “buy low” he’s going to get lol

Or his sell high window is now closed. Just never know with prospects. Could possibly struggle like Trout did with his first cup of coffee and then get sent back down only to come up later this year and mash.

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Vlad has crushed it every step of the way - he's going to need an adjustment period.  If there was any prospect that every team already had scouting on how to pitch and where everyone was prepared for his debut it's this guy.  

 

The league adjusted to Vlad before he even ever debuted I imagine

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This is not your typical prospect, your typical call up. 

 

This is young man, a kid. A KID!  (remember when you couldn’t buy a beer w/out a fake ID?) 

 

Vlad Jr. is the highest consensus graded prospect hitter ever.Trout,  Harper, A-Rod, Griffey included. He  is also a kid, he is also well aware of his expectations and his HOF father being in a luxury box nightly w/ cameras fixated. 

 

 

OF careers are 7 failures in 10 attempts. 

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Vlad will be fine long term, but I was very critical in the milb thread of drafting him early in redraft. What you're hoping from Vlad is a prime Arenado year. I think the chances of a prime Arenado year for Vlad as a 20 year old is under 20%. I'm not saying he's going to be sent down even if he struggles for another 2 weeks, but I also feel like the chance that he gets sent down at some point is about 20%. 60% of the outcomes are somewhere in the middle. 

Soto may have  been league winners for some guys last year, but in redraft, you paid no price on it.  Vlad was an easy redraft fade for me this year, and he can bust out and be elite  from today on and I still don't think it was the wrong decision.  The upside of Vlad being elite in year 1 wasn't worth the price for me, there's ridiculous profit potential in leagues her he can be kept forever or multiple years. 

I watched a lot of his at bats in his first few games, haven't recently because of time.  I imagine he's pressing and he's trying to force something to happen. He will figure it out, but if he's not getting 300+ 35 HR then you paid a 3-4 round price on a good talent, but one that comes with significant year 1 risk. It's not  bad pick, but I think it's also one that leaves very little margin for profit. Like, you need Vlad to be very good. If he has a 280-25 HR season, thats insanely good for someone his age, but you paid for more. 

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47 minutes ago, motown magic said:

I own him in three leagues . Even if this is the best I get the whole season he isn’t going anywhere . I know the best is coming .Trading him hasn’t even entered my mind 

I would trade him in redraft for a low end sp1 like carrasco,smell, etc...

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6 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Vlad will be fine long term, but I was very critical in the milb thread of drafting him early in redraft. What you're hoping from Vlad is a prime Arenado year. I think the chances of a prime Arenado year for Vlad as a 20 year old is under 20%. I'm not saying he's going to be sent down even if he struggles for another 2 weeks, but I also feel like the chance that he gets sent down at some point is about 20%. 60% of the outcomes are somewhere in the middle. 

Soto may have  been league winners for some guys last year, but in redraft, you paid no price on it.  Vlad was an easy redraft fade for me this year, and he can bust out and be elite  from today on and I still don't think it was the wrong decision.  The upside of Vlad being elite in year 1 wasn't worth the price for me, there's ridiculous profit potential in leagues her he can be kept forever or multiple years. 

I watched a lot of his at bats in his first few games, haven't recently because of time.  I imagine he's pressing and he's trying to force something to happen. He will figure it out, but if he's not getting 300+ 35 HR then you paid a 3-4 round price on a good talent, but one that comes with significant year 1 risk. It's not  bad pick, but I think it's also one that leaves very little margin for profit. Like, you need Vlad to be very good. If he has a 280-25 HR season, thats insanely good for someone his age, but you paid for more. 

Agreed...I paid a 5th round price and will never get that value back this year

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Give him some time. If you drafted him sit back and wait, if it comes and if it doesn’t  you can’t do a damn thing.

I went into draft day knowing I was not going to draft one single Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The price tag was to high. 

 

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38 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Vlad will be fine long term, but I was very critical in the milb thread of drafting him early in redraft. What you're hoping from Vlad is a prime Arenado year. I think the chances of a prime Arenado year for Vlad as a 20 year old is under 20%. I'm not saying he's going to be sent down even if he struggles for another 2 weeks, but I also feel like the chance that he gets sent down at some point is about 20%. 60% of the outcomes are somewhere in the middle. 

Soto may have  been league winners for some guys last year, but in redraft, you paid no price on it.  Vlad was an easy redraft fade for me this year, and he can bust out and be elite  from today on and I still don't think it was the wrong decision.  The upside of Vlad being elite in year 1 wasn't worth the price for me, there's ridiculous profit potential in leagues her he can be kept forever or multiple years. 

I watched a lot of his at bats in his first few games, haven't recently because of time.  I imagine he's pressing and he's trying to force something to happen. He will figure it out, but if he's not getting 300+ 35 HR then you paid a 3-4 round price on a good talent, but one that comes with significant year 1 risk. It's not  bad pick, but I think it's also one that leaves very little margin for profit. Like, you need Vlad to be very good. If he has a 280-25 HR season, thats insanely good for someone his age, but you paid for more. 

i've seen a few of his ABs and it doesnt look like hes pressing at all.  Just getting a taste of big league pitching.

 

in the ABs i saw...looked like a professional hitter.

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