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D. K. Metcalf 2019 Outlook


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I took my shirt off while reading this.

Umm... you gave both the best and worst cases. That doesn't deserve a pat on the back.

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5 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Wait, people actually care about the combine?

 

I forgot about the combine until he dropped out of the first round.  Then I remembered, "oh yeah, that guy.  I wouldn't draft him."

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1 minute ago, jmausen said:

 

I forgot about the combine until he dropped out of the first round.  Then I remembered, "oh yeah, that guy.  I wouldn't draft him."

You literally just quoted an article about his combine results

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2 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

You literally just quoted an article about his combine results

 

I thought he would be decent in Seattle until I remembered reading an article 2 months ago about Metcalf? either being top or bottom 5th percentile in every category.  

Doing a generic google search on "Metcalf 2019 combine results" 30 minutes ago didn't return what I was looking for.  Had to remember what I was looking for.  Wasn't sure it was the same guy.

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7 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Lockett and Graham

 

Lockett, Moore, and Vannett. Also signed Kendricks.  Jaron Brown needs to learn more routes and get more involved.  The team prefers the running game.  They also have very capable receiving RBs.

I feel like Metcalf is a Cordarrelle Patterson without the all-pro special teams ability. Lots of optimism for years to come.  

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1 hour ago, bhawks489 said:

Wait, people actually care about the combine?

Fantasy people definitely seem to care about the combine, given that every year I read in some topic "yeah but he did xyz on the ABC, so he's good/bad"

Regarding teams, I did a quick non-scientific research. I took the combine results and draft results from Pro football reference for 2 recent years, scored all combine results as "z-scores" (for the statistically inclined) and then plotted those combine scores vs the "career approximate value" of the players, and against the draft order. If I lost you by now, what I wanted to know is:

1) does a high combine result predict a high draft pick?

2) does a high combine result predict a high career value?

3) as a comparison, does a high draft pick predict a high career value?

Regarding 1), for some positions the combine has a pretty good correlation to the draft, eg CBs and RBs. However, for WRs it's almost zero or even negative. So it seems teams pretty much disregard the combine for WRs.

image.png.5f7324d71d161cdeb0fdae9b10cfd068.png

2) Same for the combine as predictor for the career. Good combine results are pretty meaningless for WRs (not for RBs though)

image.png.3a758a879ad44e9283088ea31da428d9.png

3) last but not least, teams are pretty good in drafting some types of players (defensive players have a good correlation), but for WRs again it's somewhat meh. Better than the combine though:

image.png.788bde9c72a853412e95f9e79f35ed61.png
Again, not scientific, and I'm too lazy to do this for 20 years, but it's still interesting and somewhat consistent between the years I picked.

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I liked the contrast between the clickbait title and the actual content in this article:

https://seahawkswire.usatoday.com/2019/05/04/pete-carroll-d-k-metcalf-may-be-even-more-unique-than-we-thought/amp/

"The biggest question mark for Metcalf, and the reason he fell out of the first round, is his route running. Metcalf thrived only running one or two unique routes while at Ole Miss. He has not displayed proficiency in running multiple routes – which could limit his production in the NFL."

(Bla bla coach speak, and then: )

"Now he’s got to go fight and figure out how to play football now."

 

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2 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I liked the contrast between the clickbait title and the actual content in this article:

https://seahawkswire.usatoday.com/2019/05/04/pete-carroll-d-k-metcalf-may-be-even-more-unique-than-we-thought/amp/

"The biggest question mark for Metcalf, and the reason he fell out of the first round, is his route running. Metcalf thrived only running one or two unique routes while at Ole Miss. He has not displayed proficiency in running multiple routes – which could limit his production in the NFL."

(Bla bla coach speak, and then: )

"Now he’s got to go fight and figure out how to play football now."

 

Translation he wont contribute much for fantasy pruposes his rookie year. 

Golladay was the same mold for the Lions physical talent but didnt know how to  plat the wr position at the NFL level

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On 4/27/2019 at 8:08 PM, jmausen said:

 

I feel like Metcalf is a Cordarrelle Patterson without the all-pro special teams ability. Lots of optimism for years to come.  

 

One of the strangest comparisons ive seen. D.K was nothing like Patterson in college. Patterson is closer to Parris Campbell then he is D.K. Aside from size they pretty much had the exact same role in college.

 

D.K was a 3 route deep threat who wasnt asked to do much else at Ole, but he was no where near the gadget player that patterson was.

Edited by vikingapocalypse
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The Seahawks are better than most NFL teams when it comes to teaching raw athletes how to play football.  It doesn't always work, though.

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1 hour ago, vikingapocalypse said:

 

One of the strangest comparisons ive seen. D.K was nothing like Patterson in college. Patterson is closer to Parris Campbell then he is D.K. Aside from size they pretty much had the exact same role in college.

 

D.K was a 3 route deep threat who wasnt asked to do much else at Ole, but he was no where near the gadget player that patterson was.

 

Agreed. Patterson is a really bad comp. Gordon maybe?

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Just now, vikingapocalypse said:

 

Yeah ive always liked the Gordon comp. Comps are never perfect but he was a raw, physical specimen who excelled as deep threat with a big YPC number

 

Yeah, Patterson prob had more rushes than catches in his time with the Pats. 

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No one should be compared to Patterson. He's horrible. I mean the guy was wide open a few years back. Smoked then DB and the QB launched a perfect pass to him for a huge TD. It bounced off his helmet.

Worked with jerry Sullivan on route running and if you don't know who that is, he's pretty much the best in the business as far as teaching WRs.

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2 hours ago, FavreCo said:

No one should be compared to Patterson. He's horrible. 

He's not horrible, he's just not a WR. As RB/ST he's doing pretty good.

The comparison with Parris Campbell seems quite obvious to me, but I would hope Campbell can learn more than CoPat. Anyway, that's a different topic.

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2 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Agreed. Patterson is a really bad comp. Gordon maybe?

 

Kevin white is who I think of. Both lined up on one side of the field ran a slant, go, or hook routes. Both dominated the combine very similar numbers. Gordon would be the good comp while white is the nightmare. 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Kevin white is who I think of. Both lined up on one side of the field ran a slant, go, or hook routes. Both dominated the combine very similar numbers. Gordon would be the good comp while white is the nightmare. 

 

 

 

Does White just keep getting hurt or does he suck? Havent really followed.

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Just now, dmb3684 said:

 

Does White just keep getting hurt or does he suck? Havent really followed.

 

Poor guy got hurt with 3 season ending injuries very early on in each of his first 3 seasons. I think he played like 8 games before last year. He got a whopping 4 catches and was out snapped at wr by nearly everyone on the team including cohen. So I'd say he was always hurt and he sucked.. but maybe I'm just jaded. 

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