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Mecole Hardman 2019 Outlook


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I think I’m gonna start him just so I can look like a genius when he goes off. My league mates already think I’m dumb so if he flops no loss. 

Literally all you have to think about to see the obvious upside here is Sammy Watkins injury history.

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1 hour ago, konstao said:


slay probably gonna shadow watkins anyway, or nah? 

Yeah, it's going to be Watkins until Hill comes back. Same as when teams stick their shadow guy on Brandin Cooks. That's just how it's going to be. So Slay's status doesn't really affect Hardman due to Slay being one of the rare shadow corners in the league.

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Hardman is a #2 right now.  Probably a #3 when Hill returns.

BUT....while he doesn't get a lot of targets, they do seem to want to get him the ball.

Plus, he only needs 3 targets to score a TD and close to 100 yards.  Yes, he's one dimensional.

But he's a true burner.  I like him as my WR2 with a low floor, but a ridiculous ceiling.

 

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11 hours ago, konstao said:


slay probably gonna shadow watkins anyway, or nah? 

 

10 hours ago, miasma16 said:

Yeah, it's going to be Watkins until Hill comes back. Same as when teams stick their shadow guy on Brandin Cooks. That's just how it's going to be. So Slay's status doesn't really affect Hardman due to Slay being one of the rare shadow corners in the league.

Even if Slay isn't covering Hardman, it'll still have impact.  He's the leader and the best defender in the secondary.  If he misses, the secondary is short-handed and it's potentially one guy further down the pecking order that is covering Mecole, more help will have to be given to other guys, etc.  Not to mention #2 CB Melvin was limited yesterday as well.

Additionally, Slay is the fastest guy in the backfield.  The chances of Hardman being able to break another long TD like he did last week go down with Slay in the game.  No one else in the secondary has the speed to catch Hardman.

Edited by JJ1223
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6 minutes ago, JJ1223 said:

 

Even if Slay isn't covering Hardman, it'll still have impact.  He's the leader and the best defender in the secondary.  If he misses, the secondary is short-handed and it's potentially one guy further down the pecking order that is covering Mecole, more help will have to be given to other guys, etc.  Not to mention #2 CB Melvin was limited yesterday as well.

Additionally, Slay is the fastest guy in the backfield.  The chances of Hardman being able to break another long TD like he did last week go down with Slay in the game.  No one else in the secondary has the speed to catch Hardman.

i agree with everything you are saying here.. but you are leaving 1 key component out of this... we cannot treat mahomes and his weapons like other receivers/qbs in the league..he has proven that time and time again, all normal thinking goes out the door with this guy IMO. 

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18 minutes ago, JJ1223 said:

 

Even if Slay isn't covering Hardman, it'll still have impact.  He's the leader and the best defender in the secondary.  If he misses, the secondary is short-handed and it's potentially one guy further down the pecking order that is covering Mecole, more help will have to be given to other guys, etc.  Not to mention #2 CB Melvin was limited yesterday as well.

Additionally, Slay is the fastest guy in the backfield.  The chances of Hardman being able to break another long TD like he did last week go down with Slay in the game.  No one else in the secondary has the speed to catch Hardman.

Meh. Slay is a shadow. I doubt Detroit would even bother having anybody else shadow anybody. So Hardman gets defended the same way, the only difference being that Watkins isn't defended by Slay, and there's some worse corner on the field. To my eyes, that's a slight upgrade to Mahomes, big upgrade to Watkins, and a slight downgrade to all the other pass catchers. 

Again, I don't know how you can see Slay's impact as relevant at all to lineup decisions regarding Hardman. 

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Just now, miasma16 said:

Meh. Slay is a shadow. I doubt Detroit would even bother having anybody else shadow anybody. So Hardman gets defended the same way, the only difference being that Watkins isn't defended by Slay, and there's some worse corner on the field. To my eyes, that's a slight upgrade to Mahomes, big upgrade to Watkins, and a slight downgrade to all the other pass catchers. 

Again, I don't know how you can see Slay's impact as relevant at all to lineup decisions regarding Hardman. 

Sorry but I just disagree.

I don't necessarily agree that Slay would shadow Watkins all game, but for the sake of this discussion I will just agree with you.  So let's say Slay plays, he can cover Watkins with little/no help all game.  Depending on where Mecole lines up and other personnel on the field, that leaves Melvin/Ford/Coleman/whoever to cover him with consistent safety help.  There will always be someone watching him deep, because he can and will beat any of those guys using his speed. 

Now, let's say Slay misses the game.  You can't trust any of the other CBs to take Watkins out of the game like you would Slay.  Now they need safety help, too.  The secondary is stretched thinner as a result, and Mecole has a better chance of beating his man and getting open.

You also can't ignore my final point that Slay is the only guy on the field with the speed to catch Hardman from behind.  He's a burner that makes his bones getting behind the secondary and outrunning them to the end zone.  You just saw it last week when Mecole made his whole day on one reception.  I don't want to be "that guy", but I watch every snap of every Lions game.  The secondary suffers when Slay isn't in the game, period.

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1 hour ago, JJ1223 said:

Sorry but I just disagree.

I don't necessarily agree that Slay would shadow Watkins all game, but for the sake of this discussion I will just agree with you.  So let's say Slay plays, he can cover Watkins with little/no help all game.  Depending on where Mecole lines up and other personnel on the field, that leaves Melvin/Ford/Coleman/whoever to cover him with consistent safety help.  There will always be someone watching him deep, because he can and will beat any of those guys using his speed. 

Now, let's say Slay misses the game.  You can't trust any of the other CBs to take Watkins out of the game like you would Slay.  Now they need safety help, too.  The secondary is stretched thinner as a result, and Mecole has a better chance of beating his man and getting open.

You also can't ignore my final point that Slay is the only guy on the field with the speed to catch Hardman from behind.  He's a burner that makes his bones getting behind the secondary and outrunning them to the end zone.  You just saw it last week when Mecole made his whole day on one reception.  I don't want to be "that guy", but I watch every snap of every Lions game.  The secondary suffers when Slay isn't in the game, period.

Agree about agreeing to disagree. For the reasons I already outlined a couple of times, I can't see how a corner that's not even covering the guy in question will make a lineup decision for you. There are several other factors I'd be considering first.

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12 minutes ago, konstao said:

What kind of players are you guys ranking him above ?

 

names like christian kirk? 
mclaurin?

 

Is hardman in the same range ? 

I’ve played him all year and will until there’s reason not to.

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I agree with JJ1223 we may see a LB trying to cover Hardman at some point. He’s going to have an opportunity to set it on fire this week. The biggest hurdle on KC is being the first guy to get open or split coverage and run to the ball. Mahomes sees it and doesn’t hesitate. The creativity of that offense and the way they create space in pass routes makes all offensive players viable. I actually think Kelce might be in the midst of the greatest opportunity any pass catching player has ever had!  All that said Hardman is legit and I’m playing over Emanuel Sanders, Fuller and JuJu.

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3 minutes ago, DiddleThatKitty said:

Slay matters...... let me explain.

 

slay is Detroit’s #1 corner and he will cover Watkins; however, if slay is out and their #2 corner has to cover Watkins that’s puts the 3rd corner on hardman. Wow football is easy.

And your takeaway is what, exactly? That Watkins gets more yards? That Hardman gets more yards? That Robinson gets more yards? That they get up big because all 3 of those guys get more yards, and all the running backs get more yards?

Again, it's a stupid thing to use to try to figure out whether or not you're going to play Hardman. Slay isn't covering Hardman and you have no idea how and where his absence would shift yardage.

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37 minutes ago, GoBlue41 said:

I'm wondering about Hardman when Hill gets back. Can he still be a viable fantasy starter? Is Demarcus Robinson a better fantasy option than Hardman once Hill gets back? 

 

That's what I'm grappling with.  Robinson has better numbers in the two games, but the experts like Hardman slightly better this week.  I can't figure out why.

Darius Slay has been ruled out.

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1 minute ago, Nap Time said:

That's what I'm grappling with.  Robinson has better numbers in the two games, but the experts like Hardman slightly better this week.

Hardman owner here. It's because experts are slow to move off of their preconceived notions. Robinson is a better play, especially this week. The guys that have put up big yardage on the Lions are good route runners / possession guys, not burners.

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