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Mecole Hardman 2019 Outlook


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16 minutes ago, dashoe said:

In all fairness the Bills were tearing down their team and the rams paid them a 2nd round pick  and a backup db which isnt cheap and the Rams wanted to resign Watkins but the chiefs gave him a $48mm contract. So i think it's fair to say the Rams+ chiefs  view on his talent was very high.  brandin cooks was on his 3rd team in 5yrs too and he signed for $81mm but he has a track record of good health + production with winning franchises like the saints+pats. 

KC  is getting a discount like you get with bruised fruit? 🤣

 

Thats a fair position to take-  but it is what it is.   If you really thought he was elite he doesn’t walk for 48M.   Then you pay another similar guy 81M?  Doesn’t add up.   As you stated....there’s 6-7 WRs that went after him in 2014 who would have been better picks.    #4 for Watkins was a bad pick. Defensible... but didn’t work out.  

Big Red picked himself a new shiny apple this year.    

 

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I think I’m gonna start him just so I can look like a genius when he goes off. My league mates already think I’m dumb so if he flops no loss. 

Literally all you have to think about to see the obvious upside here is Sammy Watkins injury history.

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3 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Thats a fair position to take-  but it is what it is.   If you really thought he was elite he doesn’t walk for 48M.   Then you pay another similar guy 81M?  Doesn’t add up.   As you stated....there’s 6-7 WRs that went after him in 2014 who would have been better picks.    #4 for Watkins was a bad pick. Defensible... but didn’t work out.  

Big Red picked himself a new shiny apple this year.    

 

 

I think he is an elite talent in terms of skill set and ability  but  that doesnt mean much if he can't play healthy.

He has yet to produce sustainable elite production which is why I think the jury is still out when it comes to his value on a team

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“We know we can work him on the screen game, we know we can work him on reverses. We see him running the vertical stuff. Running go [routes], running posts, running corners, so he has all those routes we can see him get down the field and make plays. But at the same time, doing that quick stuff, getting the ball in his hands quick, and [having] him make plays.”

Reid, who had DeSean Jackson as his primary speed receiver in Philadelphia from 2008 through 2012 and had coached Hill for the past three seasons, saw no problem with putting Hardman in that same group.

“He’s got that same explosive power. Now, DeSean was probably a little bit further along then Tyreek was at the position — [Hardman] is probably closer to where Tyreek was coming out as a wide receiver,” Reid said. “DeSean was a phenomenal route runner coming out. You’ve seen the growth with Tyreek, and I think you’ll see it with this kid. But he catches well, he’s got great, secure, hands, and he can run like a son of a gun.”

 

Dynasty players:   sleep on this guy at your own peril 👀

 

 

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2 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

At this point-  Agreed.   In 2019 redraft I would take Watkins over any other chiefs Wr.  I expect his ADP will reflect that.   Rookie WRs aren’t a great bet for production out the gate.  

The fact that Sammy was taken #4 in 2014 is beyond irrelevant.  A bad pick riddled by foot injuries with his 3rd team in 5 years.   In KC, we didn’t see anywhere near the 4.43 speed he had coming out of Clemson.  Major injuries tend to do that.   He’s in the correct possession role for that offense.  

Whoever lands the Z spot (Hardman, Hill) is who you want beyond this season.   With Mahomes pulling the trigger its a goldmine.       

If Sammy’s draft selection is irrelevant than so is MH’s. You can’t say oh MH was a second round pick for a reason and then scoff at Watkins who was 4th ovr. If Watkins, who was drafted 4th is now not very good, what’s preventing some 2nd round pick from not being very good? Everyone agrees Watkins was better out of college, if he disappointed, anyone can. 

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Article from DFL breaking down Hardman's game and why the author is avoiding in rookie drafts:

https://dynastyfootballfactory.com/three-rookies-to-avoid-in-your-upcoming-rookie-draft/

"Mecole Hardman, Wide Receiver, Kansas City Chiefs 

Hardman will be the easiest of all rookies for me to pass on this year. Having only six career collegiate starts under his belt at wide receiver, Hardman relies on his off-the-line burst, and pull-away speed to support his one-dimensional playmaking abilities. While Hardman played quarterback in high school, he was recruited to play cornerback for Georgia before converting to wide receiver.

While he has shown himself to be a quick learner, he’s still learning his craft. 

From his tape, we can see that he relied too much on short routes against off coverage. He has also struggled to get off the press, and the only deep shots you see him run away with are vs. weaker opponents and not the best of the best in the SEC.

As a matter of fact, just two of his seven receiving touchdowns came against SEC competition. At Georgia, he made a name for himself contributing to special teams, not as a wide receiver. He averaged 15.2 yards per return in college, with 39 career punt returns for 592 yards and one touchdown at Georgia.

Screen-Shot-2019-05-15-at-7.27.15-AM.png

Now to address the situation everyone has been speculating about. The Tyreek Hill saga. It’s downright lazy to jump to the conclusion that Hardman is a plug and play replacement for Hill. It’s hard to ignore the glaring differences in their play. While their dimensions on paper might be the same, their athletic measurables are not.

mecole-hardman-spider-chart.jpg?zoom=1.5

Tyreek is simply on another planet and worked hard to become the WR we loved. Think back to all the incredible plays you’ve seen Tyreek make during his time in KC. Most of them are contested deep balls in which he’s going up versus two defenders at the point of contact. Mecole thrives off easy catches but struggles with contested balls.

Finally, we have to discuss his situation. Hardman really wasn’t on anyone’s top 50 radar until he heard his name called in the 2nd round of the NFL draft. Being paired with the most exciting young quarterbacks in the NFL will make anyone want to put Mecole high on their draft boards, but that can’t be the only factor you consider.

We’re starting to see Hardman control a startup ADP of 47 overall, which translates to a mid- to late-fourth round pick. That’s a hefty price tag to carry for a kid who will need a lot of time to learn the nuances of the position and greatly expand his route tree. While I trust Andy Reid as the QB whisperer and that offense to keep the pace from last year, I don’t trust Mecole to become an instant impact player or long term threat, especially if people are trying to fit him into the Tyreek Hill mold.

If Mecole is still around at 2.05 or later in your draft, take him. But don’t reach for Mecole if you own a top-eight pick. Don’t take the bait."

 

One of the biggest factors that gives me hesitation is the lack of college offensive touches; a total of 73 his entire college career.

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On ‎4‎/‎28‎/‎2019 at 10:49 AM, dmb3684 said:

 

'worth rostering' LOL.

I'd bet he's not a set it & forget it guy... which is what Tyreek was !

 

So yes , Mecole is a guy you'd want to have in case he has growth or a good matchup on your starters bye week or injuries. Be surprised if you started 3 or more times in a 12 team or less league. Only in a return yardage lg. is he a pretty sure starter

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13 hours ago, howlin' 2 said:

I'd bet he's not a set it & forget it guy... which is what Tyreek was !

 

So yes , Mecole is a guy you'd want to have in case he has growth or a good matchup on your starters bye week or injuries. Be surprised if you started 3 or more times in a 12 team or less league. Only in a return yardage lg. is he a pretty sure starter

 

Right. But he is getting drafted in 100% of leagues. Saying he is worth rostering is silly. He obviously is.

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On 5/16/2019 at 10:13 AM, Impreza178 said:

“We know we can work him on the screen game, we know we can work him on reverses. We see him running the vertical stuff. Running go [routes], running posts, running corners, so he has all those routes we can see him get down the field and make plays. But at the same time, doing that quick stuff, getting the ball in his hands quick, and [having] him make plays.”

Reid, who had DeSean Jackson as his primary speed receiver in Philadelphia from 2008 through 2012 and had coached Hill for the past three seasons, saw no problem with putting Hardman in that same group.

“He’s got that same explosive power. Now, DeSean was probably a little bit further along then Tyreek was at the position — [Hardman] is probably closer to where Tyreek was coming out as a wide receiver,” Reid said. “DeSean was a phenomenal route runner coming out. You’ve seen the growth with Tyreek, and I think you’ll see it with this kid. But he catches well, he’s got great, secure, hands, and he can run like a son of a gun.”

 

Dynasty players:   sleep on this guy at your own peril 👀

 

 

 

Then count me as being in a coma on him.  Not betting on a raw, unproductive college player taking the league by storm as a rookie when there are better and more experienced receivers ahead of him in the target pecking order. For every Tyreek Hill there are 5 Chris Conleys. 

 

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Chris Conley & the four like him probably didn't have a Patrick Mahomes putting the ball in his hands & extending plays allowing him to get open either.

 

Hardman's apparent lack of eye popping stats is a product of a classic ball-control offense they have at UGA.

 

He has the physical skills. He has Andy Reid orchestrating ways to get the most from those skills. There is a lot to like here.

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On 5/21/2019 at 7:20 PM, SmallBallz said:

Chris Conley & the four like him probably didn't have a Patrick Mahomes putting the ball in his hands & extending plays allowing him to get open either.

 

Hardman's apparent lack of eye popping stats is a product of a classic ball-control offense they have at UGA.

 

He has the physical skills. He has Andy Reid orchestrating ways to get the most from those skills. There is a lot to like here.

 

Except Conley DID have Mahomes last year and still did nothing. 

 

Hardman needs to stand on his own feet, not just be the "next Tyreek Hill". 

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9 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Except Conley DID have Mahomes last year and still did nothing. 

 

Hardman needs to stand on his own feet, not just be the "next Tyreek Hill". 

I hear you but Conley not the same type of athlete Hardman is - Conley tall, skinny and runs fast but not quick...can't get off press coverage if it was done by Mini-Me. Hardman much more compact and sudden off the line...they're just different to me & the type of player I see in Hardman fits in the KC offense far better than Conley.

I do agree 100% that Hardman has to make his own place in offense & not be "next Tyreek Hill" - if he gets as many or more of the 52 targets Conley got last year, I think we'll know what that place is. He's one of the more intriguing rooks out there simply because of the situation he is in.

A lot depends on the Tyreek Hill situation.

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On 5/16/2019 at 11:50 AM, FollowTheLeader said:

Article from DFL breaking down Hardman's game and why the author is avoiding in rookie drafts:

https://dynastyfootballfactory.com/three-rookies-to-avoid-in-your-upcoming-rookie-draft/

"Mecole Hardman, Wide Receiver, Kansas City Chiefs 

Hardman will be the easiest of all rookies for me to pass on this year. Having only six career collegiate starts under his belt at wide receiver, Hardman relies on his off-the-line burst, and pull-away speed to support his one-dimensional playmaking abilities. While Hardman played quarterback in high school, he was recruited to play cornerback for Georgia before converting to wide receiver.

While he has shown himself to be a quick learner, he’s still learning his craft. 

From his tape, we can see that he relied too much on short routes against off coverage. He has also struggled to get off the press, and the only deep shots you see him run away with are vs. weaker opponents and not the best of the best in the SEC.

As a matter of fact, just two of his seven receiving touchdowns came against SEC competition. At Georgia, he made a name for himself contributing to special teams, not as a wide receiver. He averaged 15.2 yards per return in college, with 39 career punt returns for 592 yards and one touchdown at Georgia.

Screen-Shot-2019-05-15-at-7.27.15-AM.png

Now to address the situation everyone has been speculating about. The Tyreek Hill saga. It’s downright lazy to jump to the conclusion that Hardman is a plug and play replacement for Hill. It’s hard to ignore the glaring differences in their play. While their dimensions on paper might be the same, their athletic measurables are not.

mecole-hardman-spider-chart.jpg?zoom=1.5

Tyreek is simply on another planet and worked hard to become the WR we loved. Think back to all the incredible plays you’ve seen Tyreek make during his time in KC. Most of them are contested deep balls in which he’s going up versus two defenders at the point of contact. Mecole thrives off easy catches but struggles with contested balls.

Finally, we have to discuss his situation. Hardman really wasn’t on anyone’s top 50 radar until he heard his name called in the 2nd round of the NFL draft. Being paired with the most exciting young quarterbacks in the NFL will make anyone want to put Mecole high on their draft boards, but that can’t be the only factor you consider.

We’re starting to see Hardman control a startup ADP of 47 overall, which translates to a mid- to late-fourth round pick. That’s a hefty price tag to carry for a kid who will need a lot of time to learn the nuances of the position and greatly expand his route tree. While I trust Andy Reid as the QB whisperer and that offense to keep the pace from last year, I don’t trust Mecole to become an instant impact player or long term threat, especially if people are trying to fit him into the Tyreek Hill mold.

If Mecole is still around at 2.05 or later in your draft, take him. But don’t reach for Mecole if you own a top-eight pick. Don’t take the bait."

 

One of the biggest factors that gives me hesitation is the lack of college offensive touches; a total of 73 his entire college career.

 

This was the same knock on Hill, though...

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On 5/16/2019 at 10:50 AM, FollowTheLeader said:

One of the biggest factors that gives me hesitation is the lack of college offensive touches; a total of 73 his entire college career.

 

1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

This was the same knock on Hill, though...

 

🤔

Tyreek Hill had ~490 career offensive touches in college, compared to Hardman’s pedestrian 73 offensive touches. 

🧐

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I was curious exactly how rough Hardman is, and how talented. I found this:

This contains all (?) his plays in the 2018 SEC championship last December. You see a bunch of routes where he wasn't targeted, a couple where he was, a bad fumble and a couple interesting plays.

His numbers were 2 receptions for 21 yards, but also 5 kick and punt returns for 79 yards which unfortunately are not included.

All in all I see more talent and skill than I expected, but this is a kid who will need to learn a lot before he can be a WR in Reid's system. Dynasty yes; return yard leagues maybe; redraft 2019 no.

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  • 2 months later...

Reading a lot today how he’s had his best day in camp so far. Lot of deep ball connections with Mahomes. I’m seriously starting to come around to the idea of targeting this guy late in my draft. He is a Tyreek Hill injury away from being a league winner.

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I'm confused why there isn't more buzz about this speedy rook.  Isn't there a legit chance that he could be the WR3 in three wide sets?  I know he was drafted as the Tyreek Hill replacement, and that jet sweep he scored on was a play that we've seen Hill execute before.  In deep leagues, there's lots of talk about other guys who could be the WR3 on teams, but I haven't seen much about Hardman, and he's on the best offense in football.  Is everyone still sleeping on this guy?

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43 minutes ago, CooL said:

I'm confused why there isn't more buzz about this speedy rook.  Isn't there a legit chance that he could be the WR3 in three wide sets?  I know he was drafted as the Tyreek Hill replacement, and that jet sweep he scored on was a play that we've seen Hill execute before.  In deep leagues, there's lots of talk about other guys who could be the WR3 on teams, but I haven't seen much about Hardman, and he's on the best offense in football.  Is everyone still sleeping on this guy?

As we sit now...it’s tough to project him as a reliable fantasy starter in any given week.   So many weapons there and his exact role/ snap share is a mystery.    But certainly the upside is there.  

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I think he's been going for palatable prices in my FFPC bestballs (17th and 19th Rds), and I have had 2 dynasty rookie drafts where he went end of Rd1 and beginning part of Rd2...

He's stands a solid chance of being involved in this amazing offense from the jump, that is exciting. This is just the sort of kid that could take advantage of this opportunity and ingrain himself in the weekly gameplans for Andy Reid. Sammy most always finds himself injured during the season. I like the ceiling Hardman has and his dynasty stock could certainly explode in the near term. 

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