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Rashaad Penny 2019 Outlook


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Interesting player to rank for 2019.  A broken finger derailed his preseason and start to the 2018 season.  Carson took a stranglehold of the starting RB job and never looked back.  However, Penny was a 2018 1st rd pick that SEA traded up to get when they had many other needs to fill (in particular O-line).  He also got better as the season went on and flashed some big play ability.  Let's assume that Carson holds onto the starting RB job.  The team lost Mike Davis and his 112 carries and Penny will likely see an uptick in touches as well.  So, at minimum, he looks to have a solid role on one of the run heaviest teams in the league.  The upside though is that Penny is 1 Carson injury or slump away from taking the lead role in a very RB friendly offense.  If Penny were to be the lead RB in SEA, I think he would be ranked as a top 24 overall player. 

IMO, he's got a nice floor and pretty huge ceiling - not a bad guy to target in the middle of your draft.

 

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💚 CAN'T WE ALL JUST GET ALONG??!1?!? 💚

Rashaad might be catching up to Carson because of the fumbles, but he's still got to finish him. I think we know how this will end...  

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1. Penny struggled with adapting to the run schemes last season

2. Penny did noy make an impact because of limited reps and being buried 3rd on the depth chart

3. if schotty implements more  zone stretch vs zone block schemes penney should do well. 

The coaches are heavily invested in Penney succeeding which you saw last season, giving him reps when most rookies  struggling as he was would never take the field on game day. 

I would defintiely take him as a cheap draft stash over carson because Carson wears down after heavy work loads

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3 hours ago, dashoe said:

I would defintiely take him as a cheap draft stash over carson because Carson wears down after heavy work loads

 

carson totally gets worn down after heavy workloads:

     week 14: 22 carries / 90 yards / 1 TD
     week 15: 22 carries / 119 yards / 1 TD
     week 16: 27 carries / 116 yards / 2 TDs
     week 17: 19 carries / 122 yards / 1 TD

friggin' wuss couldn't even carry the ball 20 times during week 17 he was so worn out

sea-penny all the way!

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1 minute ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

carson totally gets worn down after heavy workloads:

     week 14: 22 carries / 90 yards / 1 TD
     week 15: 22 carries / 119 yards / 1 TD
     week 16: 27 carries / 116 yards / 2 TDs
     week 17: 19 carries / 122 yards / 1 TD

friggin' wuss couldn't even carry the ball 20 times during week 17 he was so worn out

sea-penny all the way!

I get you like Carson because he runs really really really really really really hard but for ppr purposes I will take the significantly cheaper and potentially more explosive penney who will benefit with Mike davis gone and from a carson injury which will more than likely happens a couple of times during the season if he has a heavy workload.

Also carson is  heavily volume and td dependent for fantasy purposes. You can have him at his draft price.

 

I love how you left out the first half of the season with his week to week status up in the air.

You truthers are so predictable with your misinformation. . . 🤣

game 4 he was out  after 32 carries in game 3, game  9 he was out and game 8 he had 8 carries after 25 carries in game 7 

 

He cracked over 20 carries 2x in  9 consecutive weeks of the season and the result always ended in an injury or reduced carries the following week. Nice try though maybe I should inform you that I actually owned Carson last season and dropped him, so i did follow his production 😜

 

3 2018-09-23 3 24.007 SEA   DAL W 24-13 * 32 102 3.19 1 2 2 22 11.00 0 100.0% 11.00 1 6 0 0 0 0 0
4 2018-10-07 5 24.021 SEA   LAR L 31-33 * 19 116 6.11 0 1 1 11 11.00 0 100.0% 11.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5 2018-10-14 6 24.028 SEA @ OAK W 27-3 * 14 59 4.21 0 0 0 0   0 0.0%   0 0 0 0 0 0 0
6 2018-10-28 7 24.042 SEA @ DET W 28-14 * 25 105 4.20 1 2 2 19 9.50 0 100.0% 9.50 1 6 0 0 0 0 0
7 2018-11-04 8 24.049 SEA   LAC L 17-25 * 8 40 5.00 0 0 0 0   0 0.0%   0 0 0 0 0 0 0
8 2018-11-15 10 24.060 SEA   GNB W 27-24 * 17 83 4.88 1 0 0 0   0 0.0%   1 6 1 0 0 0 0
9 2018-11-25 11 24.070 SEA @ CAR W 30-27 * 16 55 3.44 1 2 2 8 4.00 0 100.0% 4.00 1 6 1 0 0 0 0
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Carson rust attempts and weeks

Week:attempts:yards

1:7 for 51

2:6 for 24

3:32 for 102

4:DNP

5:19 for 116

6:14 for 59

7:bye 

8:25 for 105 

9:8 for 40 

10:DNP

11:17 for 83 

12:16 for 55

13:13 for 69

14:22 for 90

15:22 for 119

16:27 for 116

17:19 for 122

 Rb Is the most physically draining position in all of sports. And Carson particularly is even more physical than most. Only missed 2 games. Not bad. Finished the season as strong as anyone. 

Penny is sure to stain off some of the touches however

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11 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

 Rb Is the most physically draining position in all of sports. And Carson particularly is even more physical than most. Only missed 2 games. Not bad. Finished the season as strong as anyone. 

Penny is sure to stain off some of the touches however

carson has fewer rush attempts and overall touches  than workhorse rbs like zeke/bell who manage to stay healthy despite the workload and he misses games or has his workload reduced so if you dont cuff him with penny u will probably hurt your team at some point in the season.  We learned last season any of the sea rb's would produce as a rb1 in that offense if given the lead role so it's more the system than the talent of the player.  I wouldnt be surprised if both finish with similar fantasy points seasons end. 

Edited by dashoe
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Seattle is 1 of 2 teams to run the football over 500 times.  That's good for fantasy rbs. Even if Carson plays 16 games their is still enough carries for penny to possibly be a decent flex.   Seattle traded up in the 1st to take penny.  That investment equates to management's belief in the guy.   He showed flashes.   Only had double digit carries twice.  One game sucked. One game over 100 yards rushing.   I think from a sheer investment to reward standpoint Mr penny is a solid buy right now.  I like him. 

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I love Carson in standard and think he should be decent in PPR, but Penny definitely has some value.  I don't think he will be as valuable as Carson if Carson stays healthy, but I could see him getting 10-12 touches per game while Carson is healthy with the possibility of a dramatic increase if Carson misses time.  And that's the only concern I really have with Carson (his health).  Carson fits the Carroll RB mold perfectly (physical, one-cut runner who can make the first guy miss and falls forward). 

 

I think Penny will be a good value at draft time but only as a pretty late pick.  He will need some things to break his way to be anything more than a streaming flex play.

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13 hours ago, WEIL3R said:

I love Carson in standard and think he should be decent in PPR, but Penny definitely has some value.  I don't think he will be as valuable as Carson if Carson stays healthy, but I could see him getting 10-12 touches per game while Carson is healthy with the possibility of a dramatic increase if Carson misses time.  And that's the only concern I really have with Carson (his health).  Carson fits the Carroll RB mold perfectly (physical, one-cut runner who can make the first guy miss and falls forward). 

 

I think Penny will be a good value at draft time but only as a pretty late pick.  He will need some things to break his way to be anything more than a streaming flex play.

 

Given their current ADP in ppr I prefer to pass on Carson in the 4th and instead grab penny in the 8th.  The Carson owner has to give a lot of consideration to cuffing him with penny and I dont like carrying 2 rb's from the same team in a valuable bench spot.  4th round picks can be critical for success but 8th rd picks you can drop with no worries.

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3 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

Given their current ADP in ppr I prefer to pass on Carson in the 4th and instead grab penny in the 8th.  The Carson owner has to give a lot of consideration to cuffing him with penny and I dont like carrying 2 rb's from the same team in a valuable bench spot.  4th round picks can be critical for success but 8th rd picks you can drop with no worries.

I agree with you for PPR but would place their value relative to their ADP as comparable in standard.  If Carson stays healthy all season he should return round 2 production (in standard), but his risk of injury and slight uncertainty due to a high draft pick backing him up has reduced his draft price.  The price is still pretty high, but he's shown what he can do if given a full load. It doesn't hurt that he seems to be universally loved by his teammates.

 

I do like Penny's value at where he is being taken. I just don't think he overtakes Carson without an injury to Carson, but he should still carry some value (particularly in PPR) if he remains as more of a supplementary player.  The injury risk for Carson is real though.  

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27 minutes ago, WEIL3R said:

I agree with you for PPR but would place their value relative to their ADP as comparable in standard.  If Carson stays healthy all season he should return round 2 production (in standard), but his risk of injury and slight uncertainty due to a high draft pick backing him up has reduced his draft price.  The price is still pretty high, but he's shown what he can do if given a full load. It doesn't hurt that he seems to be universally loved by his teammates.

 

I do like Penny's value at where he is being taken. I just don't think he overtakes Carson without an injury to Carson, but he should still carry some value (particularly in PPR) if he remains as more of a supplementary player.  The injury risk for Carson is real though.  

 

Which is why you have to cuff him with penny because carson+Davis+penny all had rb1 production when given the full load in a game. So it's not a question of talent. it's more about opportunity in that system, even rawls+ christine  had their moments in the sun when featured.

I think the sea rb conversation gets severely distorted because owners fall in love with their respective guy and think it's the talent that's the differentiator when it's not. I can imagine some frustrating weeks for carson and penny owners but moreso for carson owners in ppr

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i just don't think Penny is more talented than Carson. I didn't think he was worth the first round price when he was drafted in the first place. If you arent paying a premium its a decent bet but im not going out of my way to pick Penny personally. 

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  • 1 month later...

In my Yahoo fantasy league, the set-up is projecting more points for Penny than Carson. 

 

Penny 191 carries for 849 yards and 5.8 TDs,  25 receptions for 231 yards and 1.1 TDs

Carson 177 carries for 766 yards and 5.7 TDs, 13 receptions for 110 yards and 0 TDs

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Passing on both. Don’t trust this team and the “coaches invested in penny” argument was disproven year 1. They’re going to play the better player bc the pick is now a dunk cost and they care more about winning games than saying I told you so

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22 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

Passing on both. Don’t trust this team and the “coaches invested in penny” argument was disproven year 1. They’re going to play the better player bc the pick is now a dunk cost and they care more about winning games than saying I told you so

funny, i'm drafting both [when the price is right] --- i trust seattle to be run-heavy, i trust carson to dominate the carries, and i trust penny to get his share from last season + mike davis' touches (which combine to almost 250 touches)... the team finished 2nd in rushing attempts last season and i expect they'll be in the running (ha!) for top 3 in 2019.

so if carson stays the same at relatively 275 touches, and penny gets mike davis' plus his own at 250, seems like a 1A + 1B where both can see RB2 numbers weekly, occasionally leaning into RB1 territory when the wind is at their backs blowing them into the end zone. (if carson remains healthy, i do see him dominating touches, but 300:200 still looks good.) all that for a round 5 (carson) and late round 6 (penny) draft price gets me excited.

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4 hours ago, Sack Exchange said:

funny, i'm drafting both [when the price is right] --- i trust seattle to be run-heavy, i trust carson to dominate the carries, and i trust penny to get his share from last season + mike davis' touches (which combine to almost 250 touches)... the team finished 2nd in rushing attempts last season and i expect they'll be in the running (ha!) for top 3 in 2019.

so if carson stays the same at relatively 275 touches, and penny gets mike davis' plus his own at 250, seems like a 1A + 1B where both can see RB2 numbers weekly, occasionally leaning into RB1 territory when the wind is at their backs blowing them into the end zone. (if carson remains healthy, i do see him dominating touches, but 300:200 still looks good.) all that for a round 5 (carson) and late round 6 (penny) draft price gets me excited.

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Hmmm. That’s an interesting argument you’ve laid out. I don’t necessarily disagree with any of that. How sure are you that they run the same out of running plays? Yes their WRs are bad but I think Seattle is forced to pass more this year. If they dont play 2000s ball and run a majority of the time then you might be stuck with a committee that isn’t very fruitful  

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7 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

Hmmm. That’s an interesting argument you’ve laid out. I don’t necessarily disagree with any of that. How sure are you that they run the same out of running plays? Yes their WRs are bad but I think Seattle is forced to pass more this year. If they dont play 2000s ball and run a majority of the time then you might be stuck with a committee that isn’t very fruitful  

with fantasty and reality football, no one is sure with anything. for all we know, CJ prosise will stay healthy, will make the team, and will absorb all of the targets cutting the carson:penny 300:200 touches down to 200:100. but from everything i've read, and everything we saw last year and heard last year, seattle wants to be a run-first team. they've actually wanted this for several years but never got their offensive line to shift into gear (and couldn't keep one healthy talented RB). they have some real talent in carson and penny. i certainly don't trust russel wilson's efficiency / opportunity (though he's talent is exceptional); absolutely don't trust lockett to maintain his outstanding efficiency last season. and right now, the price is still right for both carson and penny. even if my liberal 300:200 or 270:230 goes down significantly, like to 220:180 (?), still good value to be had. i'm not say draft both---although if the prices are right both can work out well---but other options in this round 5, 6, & 7 range (half-PPR) include:

      chris carson 5.01, kenyan drake, tarik cohen, derrius guice, james white, lamar miller, tevin coleman, miles sanders, jordan howard, and ending with kareem hunt at 8.03

out of this motley crew, i like drake's talent but don't trust a tanking dolphins; also, for me, drake, cohen, and james white are full-PPR buys, not half-PPR. tevin coleman is in a tough spot that could either hit or miss, jordan howard and miles sanders are in a similar boat (despite sanders' obvious talent), hunt won't see the field until week 10 and then must share with chubby. i like guice but sharing with AP on a weakened offense and coming off an infected injury seem like a red flag or three. funny that only lamar plugalong miller seems ok, and this more about the offense he's on than the RB himself.

so carson / penny it is, and i don't see it as a consolation. unless you go RB/RB early, seems like a good fit, and even if you go RB/RB early, carson or penny make a great flex.

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  • 1 month later...

Loved this dude out of SD state. Showed glimpses last year but man was he apprehensive in his runs. 

Carson is getting a lot of love and buzz but isn’t he Thomas Rawls jr? He’s a tough sob but could see him wearing down at some point with that running style.

This feels like a situation where taking the cheaper option is better. Penny needs to run with more authority this year and take the lead role when opportunity knocks!

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2 hours ago, jsch08 said:

Loved this dude out of SD state. Showed glimpses last year but man was he apprehensive in his runs. 

Carson is getting a lot of love and buzz but isn’t he Thomas Rawls jr? He’s a tough sob but could see him wearing down at some point with that running style.

This feels like a situation where taking the cheaper option is better. Penny needs to run with more authority this year and take the lead role when opportunity knocks!

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I picked him up in the 6th of a keep-3, 12-team league. I know little about Penny because I never thought I'd get him and just didn't have him on my radar. Is he a solidly the backup no2 to Carson, or is this going to be a 1a-1b type situation? Is it going to take an injury to Carson for him to take over? 

I read the thread before posting, but most of the posts are from a while back. I'm just wondering if anything has changed. 

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