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Jarvis Landry 2019 Outlook


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Jarvis Landry saw 149 targets in his first year in Cleveland, equal to his four-year average in Miami. But he also experienced his worst catch percentage in his five years as a pro, 54.4%. He did however match his yards per reception high of 12 yards.

Overall, Landry finished 2018 with 976 yards; had he been as efficient as he was in Miami (70% catch rate over four years), Landry would have ended with 104 receptions (instead of his actual 81), and 1248 yards (instead of his 976 yards). Conclusion: Tannehill and Brock Osweiler are better QBs than Tyrod Taylor and Baker Mayfield. Just kidding.

But I do like Landry this year. He has never solidified himself as a WR1, but he has continually excelled as a WR2: his identity as a WR manifests when defenses spend their best personnel away from Landry. Enter Odell Beckham Jr. For those of us who watched LSU in 2013, it’s easy to remember how this duo rocked. And after five years in the pros, it’s harder to remember that Landry out-produced OBJ in 2013 with more receptions, more yards, more TDs.

In PPR, Landry’s current ADP is 5.03, one pick below Calvin Ridley, one above Chris Godwin. With Baker Mayfield expected to develop well, is Jarvis Landry one of the most solid PPR values in round 5? Can we expect Landry to have his best season yet?

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... yep,  won't be long now 'til it's NBA level of putrid ... eff them, i'd rather eat cat chit with a knittin' needle than support that 🗣

Jarvis Landry saw 149 targets in his first year in Cleveland, equal to his four-year average in Miami. But he also experienced his worst catch percentage in his five years as a pro, 54.4%. He did howe

I might be able to get on this train in ppr solely bc that LSU duo was so fun. But Landry himself, idk. As you alluded to, Landry ran some deeper routes in Cleveland and saw his catch rate decrease. Idk. There’s certainly an argument that Landry will benefit from OBJs arrival  

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12 hours ago, kdko said:

I'd take him over Ridley and Godwin, if that's where he's going right now.

 

Godwin > Landry > Ridley for me.

 

Been a Jarvis fan for a while, but he kinda sucked last year and ODB is there now.  Im out.

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Too many unknowns and moving parts with the browns this season. New HC/OC, 2nd yr QB and I'm struggling on how to value OBJ fitting in so Landry is a complete guess and shot in the dark as to his value. 

The Browns have a lot of talent but good luck predicting how the ball is distrubted to the talent every week

Everyone is excited about the Browns on paper but no one has a clue as to what this team will produce every Sunday

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31 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Too many unknowns and moving parts with the browns this season. New HC/OC, 2nd yr QB and I'm struggling on how to value OBJ fitting in so Landry is a complete guess and shot in the dark as to his value. 

The Browns have a lot of talent but good luck predicting how the ball is distrubted to the talent every week

Everyone is excited about the Browns on paper but no one has a clue as to what this team will produce every Sunday

 

Agreed. I'll be fading Browns this year.

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I'm kinda with DMB on the Browns.   I love the offense and expect it to put up points, i just think the ADP's for everyone are too high.   Beckham's right in the right spot if he's a healthy chap, but that's not what usually happens.  Mayfield is going at premium QB price, tough sell.    Chubb's not too bad I guess, but he hasn't made his way on any of my mocks yet- he's mid second, and i'm almost always drafting RB-WR so that's just personal preference.   

Landry is the guy i like the least of the bunch.  He was WR19 overall in PPR last year. FFC has him at WR21 right now in drafts.   Last year was a mild disappointment for him, but we're drafting him as if he'll do that again despite Beckham being in town?  No thanks.   

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On 5/11/2019 at 10:10 PM, theSPANKER said:

 

Except Baker right?  

Too many good QB's end of draft to pay up for Mayfield.. I think people are over extrapolating his TD's.  He isnt going to get you much with his legs so you have to hope he throws for a lot of td's and The browns defnse sucks

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7 minutes ago, dashoe said:

The browns defnse sucks

this information is outdated, sir.

five draft picks spent on defense, including the greedy acquisition.

joe schobert is an excellent LB, kirksey is solid, and although olivier vernon did not have a good 2018 in the giants' scheme, he is an excellent acquisition and projects well as a brown, as do morgan burnett and sheldon richardson.

and in 2018 myles garrett ended up 2.5 sacks behind second place leader j.j. watt.

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11 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

this information is outdated, sir.

five draft picks spent on defense, including the greedy acquisition.

joe schobert is an excellent LB, kirksey is solid, and although olivier vernon did not have a good 2018 in the giants' scheme, he is an excellent acquisition and projects well as a brown, as do morgan burnett and sheldon richardson.

and in 2018 myles garrett ended up 2.5 sacks behind second place leader j.j. watt.

 

I didnt DATE ANY INFORMATION, you completed misread the sentence, I postulated a SCENARIO 😂

". . . so you have to hope he throws for a lot of td's and The browns defnse sucks"

notice that underlined part? 👀

 

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1 minute ago, dashoe said:

 

I didnt DATE ANY INFORMATION, you completed misread the sentence, I postulated a SCENARIO 😂

". . . so you have to hope he throws for a lot of td's and The browns defnse sucks"

notice that underlined part? 👀

 

oh, "defnse." my bad. what get from posting from the chairlift. and it's cold.

SaneImperfectBernesemountaindog-size_res

though, with that scenario in mind, it will take a perfect storm of injuries to undermine the browns' defense, and morgan burnett is the only one i'd consider injury prone.

the browns' defense may create more opportunities for chubb than for the baker-beckham project...

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14 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

oh, "defnse." my bad. what get from posting from the chairlift. and it's cold.

 

though, with that scenario in mind, it will take a perfect storm of injuries to undermine the browns' defense, and morgan burnett is the only one i'd consider injury prone.

the browns' defense may create more opportunities for chubb than for the baker-beckham project...

i'm big on the browns winning games and making the playoffs however I'm not bullish on their offense being prolific in scoring like KC was last season which feels like what people are hoping for. I think their defense will surprise many and slow the game down which means Baker is not throwing for 5000yds and 50tds.

I cant imagine landry being more than a volatile wr2/3 with a couple of stud games on this offense

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3 hours ago, Sack Exchange said:

this information is outdated, sir.

five draft picks spent on defense, including the greedy acquisition.

joe schobert is an excellent LB, kirksey is solid, and although olivier vernon did not have a good 2018 in the giants' scheme, he is an excellent acquisition and projects well as a brown, as do morgan burnett and sheldon richardson.

and in 2018 myles garrett ended up 2.5 sacks behind second place leader j.j. watt.

 

He was just saying the Browns defense needs to suck for Baker to come close to justifying his ADP. 

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9 hours ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

I'm excited to get my boy Landry back, obj is exactly what he needs to take the pressure off

 

When you tell the world you are a top 10 wr and want to make top 10 money you are supposed to play like it regardless of pressure. . last season he didnt.

Landry showed everyone that if he doesnt have a QB feed him targets underneath he won't produce as a top wr.

Tannenhill was the best thing for his rookie contract and the Dolphins  are validated as to why they didnt resign him. He needs to make the most of this season because i predict he won't be a Brown next season since his contract fully guarantess in 2020. . .unless they make the SB 🤔

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34 minutes ago, dashoe said:

When you tell the world you are a top 10 wr and want to make top 10 money you are supposed to play like it regardless of pressure. . last season he didnt.

 

I translate this real world argument for fantasy purposes: he will be cheaper.

34 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Landry showed everyone that if he doesnt have a QB feed him targets underneath he won't produce as a top wr.

Given that OBJ should be the deep threat (thank you autocorrect for trying to make that deep throat), I think there will be more underneath stuff for Landry.

34 minutes ago, dashoe said:

He needs to make the most of this season because i predict he won't be a Brown next season

Again... I see a somewhat underwhelming WR who has disappointed people for a number of seasons, and now is in excellent position to exceed his dropping price.

So far he is around #62, between Calvin Ridley and Robby Anderson. If he slides another 10 places, I'm buying.

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10 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

 

I translate this real world argument for fantasy purposes: he will be cheaper.

Given that OBJ should be the deep threat (thank you autocorrect for trying to make that deep throat), I think there will be more underneath stuff for Landry.

Again... I see a somewhat underwhelming WR who has disappointed people for a number of seasons, and now is in excellent position to exceed his dropping price.

So far he is around #62, between Calvin Ridley and Robby Anderson. If he slides another 10 places, I'm buying.

 

His draft range is wr #20-25 I will sell you him all day and get sterling shepard-sutton-westbrook-davis-kirk-williams-fitzgerald and a bunch of other guys much cheaper.

 I think even Moncrief will have a better season than him

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43 minutes ago, dashoe said:

His draft range is wr #20-25

Hm. My cheat sheet had his ADP at WR28 (based on a 2 week old list I thought), which is what I based my statement on, but I now see him indeed at 22, 23 and even 19. Yeah, no thanks. 

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15 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Hm. My cheat sheet had his ADP at WR28 (based on a 2 week old list I thought), which is what I based my statement on, but I now see him indeed at 22, 23 and even 19. Yeah, no thanks. 

 

Browns players are getting a fantasy halo effect from the positive media coverage and people stating they can make a push for the SB, which is why I have pretty much taken browns players off my board unless they drop.

OBJ+chubb in 2nd,  landry+Baker in the 5th,  Hunt+njoku in the 7th. . . . . I PASS. . .🤔

OBJ only Browns player I would draft at those prices and Njoku looks fair value given his size as a red zone  threat

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On 5/13/2019 at 8:45 AM, BrianM said:

Landry is the guy i like the least of the bunch.  He was WR19 overall in PPR last year. FFC has him at WR21 right now in drafts.   Last year was a mild disappointment for him, but we're drafting him as if he'll do that again despite Beckham being in town?  No thanks.   

No, we're drafting him BECAUSE Beckham is in town. Landry the go-to WR? Nah. Landry the #2 guy in the slot? Yeah. Of all the 1a/1b or similar WR combos in the league, I like this one best for PPR. Balanced, up and coming offense, stud WR and RB to draw attention away from a guy who averages 90+ catches a year. 

 

On 5/14/2019 at 9:14 AM, dashoe said:

His draft range is wr #20-25 I will sell you him all day and get sterling shepard-sutton-westbrook-davis-kirk-williams-fitzgerald and a bunch of other guys much cheaper.

 I think even Moncrief will have a better season than him

Good god. Put the crack pipe down. Or at least tell me you aren't talking PPR.  Kirk? Shepard?? wow

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7 hours ago, bomont said:

No, we're drafting him BECAUSE Beckham is in town. Landry the go-to WR? Nah. Landry the #2 guy in the slot? Yeah. Of all the 1a/1b or similar WR combos in the league, I like this one best for PPR. Balanced, up and coming offense, stud WR and RB to draw attention away from a guy who averages 90+ catches a year. 

 

I think Landry only really paid strong dividends in seasons where he's been heavily, heavily targeted.   Now as the non alpha, we're all but sure that doesn't happen.  This Cleveland offense seemingly can do no wrong for a lot of people, and while I believe they're over the hump, I'm stopping quite a bit short of them having all these top players next year.  There's a lot of chemistry they still need to build there. 

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Fair enough. The Browns hype is in full gear and I have to say I haven't bucked it. My guess was that though he gets less percentage of targets, they'll have more and longer drives so he still gets a lot. Right now anyway I'm bullish on most of the key players.

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