lbjames6 2,700 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 2 hours ago, KilloWertz said: He's having one of the most amazing stretches to begin an MLB career that I can remember. I'm just going to enjoy it while others worry about his underlying stats, especially with how this season has gone so far (more frustrations than celebrations). Rhys Hoskins two years ago had the hottest start of any rookie I've ever seen. Austin Riley has to keep doing this for another month or so to rival that. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
illasakhil 41 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 Sell high. I have him for five years in a dynasty league. What kind of value would you be exprcting? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Z06vette 1,519 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 ^Matt Olson 189 at bats 24 home runs in 17' Hoskins 170 at bats had 18 home runs in 17' Olson played in 9 more games and had 19 more at bats. I'm with Killowertz, I'm enjoying the Riley ride. If it all stops tomorrow, it has been very enjoyable, regardless. Chances are unlikely won't get to Olson, Hoskins territory. Then again, maybe Riley has his own record he wants to create for 19' 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
sportsfreak2744 762 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 12 hours ago, rlaalsrb said: Yea so what you're saying is you said all that stuff for no real substance. Trout can look like a hacker in a limited number of at bats. You're all excited about his home run binge in a small sample but don't want to acknowledge that he has been hacking (24% swinging strike rate, 40% chase rate, 56% contact rate) in that same small sample. He has a 50% HR/FB rate as well. It goes without saying that this isn't sustainable with those numbers. So, unless he's capable of much better plate discipline than what he's shown, this is mostly a mirage. Also, Mike Trout's highest swinging strike rate in a 14-game sample (# of games Riley has played) is 12.1% (link below). So Trout at his worst isn't half as bad as Riley has been. https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10155&position=OF&statArr=110&legend=1&split=base&time=game&ymin=&ymax=&start=2011&end=2019&rtype=mult>1=14&dStatArray= 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
urban2014 1,741 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 Sell high is all I keep hearing from people that don't have him 2 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
dfstout 1,997 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 20 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said: You're all excited about his home run binge in a small sample but don't want to acknowledge that he has been hacking (24% swinging strike rate, 40% chase rate, 56% contact rate) in that same small sample. He has a 50% HR/FB rate as well. It goes without saying that this isn't sustainable with those numbers. So, unless he's capable of much better plate discipline than what he's shown, this is mostly a mirage. Also, Mike Trout's highest swinging strike rate in a 14-game sample (# of games Riley has played) is 12.1% (link below). So Trout at his worst isn't half as bad as Riley has been. https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10155&position=OF&statArr=110&legend=1&split=base&time=game&ymin=&ymax=&start=2011&end=2019&rtype=mult>1=14&dStatArray= If this is Rakin' Riley at his worst, then I am so so so happy... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
sportsfreak2744 762 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 1 minute ago, dfstout said: If this is Rakin' Riley at his worst, then I am so so so happy... Yea, you're not understanding my post at all 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
dfstout 1,997 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 6 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said: Yea, you're not understanding my post at all Look, I get it, analytics, trends, rates, missing out on a player... I also get the eye test and what a grade A looks like with that...A for Austin man! 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
KilloWertz 2,533 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 5 hours ago, lbjames6 said: Rhys Hoskins two years ago had the hottest start of any rookie I've ever seen. Austin Riley has to keep doing this for another month or so to rival that. Well, technically I'm still right since I said "one of". 😀 Actually looking into the numbers, Riley is actually on pace to beat both Hoskins and Olson. Not saying he will keep it up, so you're right that he has to keep doing this in order to rival Hoskins (and the also mentioned Olson). Riley is up there though of course. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
urban2014 1,741 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 10 minutes ago, KilloWertz said: Well, technically I'm still right since I said "one of". 😀 Actually looking into the numbers, Riley is actually on pace to beat both Hoskins and Olson. Not saying he will keep it up, so you're right that he has to keep doing this in order to rival Hoskins (and the also mentioned Olson). Riley is up there though of course. Story? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
KilloWertz 2,533 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 4 minutes ago, urban2014 said: Story? Yes, his rookie season as well if that's what you meant. Giving Riley his number of ABs, Riley would have hit somewhere in the mid-40's for HRs. Obviously this is mostly meaningless as Riley won't keep up this pace, but oh well. Again, obviously the pace will slow at some point, but Riley is on pace for over 70 HRs right now stretched out over a full season. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Junkie Cosmonaut 702 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 How quickly you all forget about Gary Sanchez I think the Austin Riley owners can look back at all of the aforementioned hot start guys (Sanchez, Story, Hoskins, Olsen), who were all highly touted not 'out of nowhere' guys, and take solace in the fact that while it hasn't been the non stop glory each of these guy provided out of the gate, they have all remained solid performers worthy of high picks, being kept despite what the non-owner, SSS, doomsdayers guys said about them. And, for the most part, what they said about the others is the same stuff being echoed here. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
lbjames6 2,700 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 41 minutes ago, KilloWertz said: Well, technically I'm still right since I said "one of". 😀 Actually looking into the numbers, Riley is actually on pace to beat both Hoskins and Olson. Not saying he will keep it up, so you're right that he has to keep doing this in order to rival Hoskins (and the also mentioned Olson). Riley is up there though of course. I was just trying to give Rhys some props because he won me a lot of money that season haha. Olson did have an awesome season as well that year too. At any rate, we've got a gem on our hands now. I don't expect it to last all season but hopefully he doesn't slump too hard. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ToO_BaD 2,190 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 2 hours ago, sportsfreak2744 said: You're all excited about his home run binge in a small sample but don't want to acknowledge that he has been hacking (24% swinging strike rate, 40% chase rate, 56% contact rate) in that same small sample. He has a 50% HR/FB rate as well. It goes without saying that this isn't sustainable with those numbers. So, unless he's capable of much better plate discipline than what he's shown, this is mostly a mirage. Also, Mike Trout's highest swinging strike rate in a 14-game sample (# of games Riley has played) is 12.1% (link below). So Trout at his worst isn't half as bad as Riley has been. https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10155&position=OF&statArr=110&legend=1&split=base&time=game&ymin=&ymax=&start=2011&end=2019&rtype=mult>1=14&dStatArray= 1 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
hgh22 310 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 he lowered his k rate in AAA from 29% in 2018 to 19% in 2019 - I would say thats at least some indication he can manage the strike zone ok when the heater is over. 6 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ball4life32 15 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 50 minutes ago, hgh22 said: he lowered his k rate in AAA from 29% in 2018 to 19% in 2019 - I would say thats at least some indication he can manage the strike zone ok when the heater is over. His strikeout rate has improved in the 2nd half pretty much every season in the minors too outside of last year(he has a knee injury last year that affected him as well). Could see him having high SO’s rates early in career but I feel confident he’ll be able to adjust with more experience. 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
street sharks 3,238 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 Stick with a hot player in their call up season, avoid them their sophomore year and let other league mates reach and get the slump year, and then come back and draft them in their 2nd full season when their ADP is lower 5 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
dicka24 417 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 Unless you're getting paid, it's hard to sell this guy based on expected analytical regression. Some guys just rake for long stretches, analytics be damned. I would imagine tho that there is a believer in your league who would pay a steep price for Riley. All it takes is one. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Backdoor Slider 8,273 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 I for one am an owner in a keeper league who appreciates the posts of @sportsfreak2744 There are some great things about these boards, but among the worst is the echo chamber that all these player threads have. Often reactionary and emotional, and anyone who disagrees is a “hater” or “missed out,” even when facts are presented. We don’t have it all figured out. Some of it might be luck. And even if it is, there’s no saying when good luck/bad luck start or stop. But MORE information is never a bad thing, and ridiculing someone from adding to the whole picture is childish and lazy. Keep the info coming, and if someone has some data to refute the other data, I’m all ears. 5 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
cizastro 460 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 (edited) [...] I know it's non sustainable, but if he can be a top-10 3B option moving forward I feel like keeping him would probably be in my best interest to begin with. I'd be happy with a 3B who hits .250-.280 with 25+ HR's in that Braves lineup. Edited May 30, 2019 by tonycpsu Removed Cool Story Quote Link to post Share on other sites
dfstout 1,997 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 (edited) Analytics may rule... But not as much as owning Riley rules! I say keep him and don't sell but I don't have all these numbers to present to you...besides the awesome stats he's produced in only a few weeks...all I can do is see that this kid's different in all the best ways...and I'm willing to stand by that...hit another one tonight Austin! Sidenote I am surprised Riley is so polarizing...I mean cmon....cant we just enjoy anything these days... Edited May 30, 2019 by dfstout 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
sportsfreak2744 762 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 14 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said: I for one am an owner in a keeper league who appreciates the posts of @sportsfreak2744 There are some great things about these boards, but among the worst is the echo chamber that all these player threads have. Often reactionary and emotional, and anyone who disagrees is a “hater” or “missed out,” even when facts are presented. We don’t have it all figured out. Some of it might be luck. And even if it is, there’s no saying when good luck/bad luck start or stop. But MORE information is never a bad thing, and ridiculing someone from adding to the whole picture is childish and lazy. Keep the info coming, and if someone has some data to refute the other data, I’m all ears. Thanks! I am not here to root against the guy or try to be intentionally negative. I saw his great start, looked into the numbers a bit more out of curiosity, and saw some red flags. I fully realize you can take this information in one of two main ways. 1) He's been able to hit 7 homeruns in 14 games despite the plate discipline issues. He's probably more disciplined than what he's shown. 2) He's been impossibly effective with his contact and when the batted ball luck regresses it could get ugly in a hurry if the plate discipline isn't much better. Of course, there are plenty of other scenarios between these two extremes that could play out as well. In all likelihood, he's not this great of a HR hitter and he's not this much of a free swinger. So he's somewhere in between, a valuable bat, especially long term. But if I were a redraft owner or looking to win this year in a keeper/dynasty, I'd be selling high. 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
StevieStats 3,719 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 Sure his peripherals have some ugly numbers, but just about everyone called up goes through an adjustment period with some struggles before they settle in... The difference here is his ability to still barrell up with the best of them while adjusting to mlb pitching -- IMO it shows how good his ability is. I expect improvement in the peripherals as he settles in. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
dfstout 1,997 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 (edited) 5 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said: Thanks! I am not here to root against the guy or try to be intentionally negative. I saw his great start, looked into the numbers a bit more out of curiosity, and saw some red flags. I fully realize you can take this information in one of two main ways. 1) He's been able to hit 7 homeruns in 14 games despite the plate discipline issues. He's probably more disciplined than what he's shown. 2) He's been impossibly effective with his contact and when the batted ball luck regresses it could get ugly in a hurry if the plate discipline isn't much better. Of course, there are plenty of other scenarios between these two extremes that could play out as well. In all likelihood, he's not this great of a HR hitter and he's not this much of a free swinger. So he's somewhere in between, a valuable bat, especially long term. But if I were a redraft owner or looking to win this year in a keeper/dynasty, I'd be selling high. This is great stuff right here...I'm gonna hold but great stuff...for real... But can I just hope hes the next Mike Trout ....only better....just a little...lol Keep the perspective comin' ...I agree ...its great for this forum big time... Edited May 30, 2019 by dfstout 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Kaii23 374 Posted May 30, 2019 Share Posted May 30, 2019 He was a very good prospect so his long term prognosis is good. But obviously he's not this good. Just ride this hot streak until he shows signs of regression. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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