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Austin Riley 2019 Outlook


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2 hours ago, KilloWertz said:

He's having one of the most amazing stretches to begin an MLB career that I can remember.  I'm just going to enjoy it while others worry about his underlying stats, especially with how this season has gone so far (more frustrations than celebrations).

Rhys Hoskins two years ago had the hottest start of any rookie I've ever seen. Austin Riley has to keep doing this for another month or so to rival that. 

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How did the benching go?  🤔

I haven't watched any of his games until today, but if he's primarily hitting homeruns off of cavalier meatballs like the one Watson just threw, then I'd expect major regression, because at some point

Posted Images

^Matt Olson  189 at bats 24 home runs in 17'

Hoskins 170 at bats had 18 home runs in 17'

Olson played in 9 more games and had 19 more at bats.

 

I'm with Killowertz, I'm enjoying the Riley ride. If it all stops tomorrow, it has been very enjoyable, regardless.

Chances are unlikely won't get to Olson, Hoskins territory. Then again, maybe Riley has his own record he wants to create for 19'

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12 hours ago, rlaalsrb said:

Yea so what you're saying is you said all that stuff for no real substance. Trout can look like a hacker in a limited number of at bats.

 

You're all excited about his home run binge in a small sample but don't want to acknowledge that he has been hacking (24% swinging strike rate, 40% chase rate, 56% contact rate) in that same small sample.  He has a 50% HR/FB rate as well.  It goes without saying that this isn't sustainable with those numbers.  So, unless he's capable of much better plate discipline than what he's shown, this is mostly a mirage.

 

Also, Mike Trout's highest swinging strike rate in a 14-game sample (# of games Riley has played) is 12.1% (link below).  So Trout at his worst isn't half as bad as Riley has been.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10155&position=OF&statArr=110&legend=1&split=base&time=game&ymin=&ymax=&start=2011&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=14&dStatArray=

 

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20 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

You're all excited about his home run binge in a small sample but don't want to acknowledge that he has been hacking (24% swinging strike rate, 40% chase rate, 56% contact rate) in that same small sample.  He has a 50% HR/FB rate as well.  It goes without saying that this isn't sustainable with those numbers.  So, unless he's capable of much better plate discipline than what he's shown, this is mostly a mirage.

 

Also, Mike Trout's highest swinging strike rate in a 14-game sample (# of games Riley has played) is 12.1% (link below).  So Trout at his worst isn't half as bad as Riley has been.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10155&position=OF&statArr=110&legend=1&split=base&time=game&ymin=&ymax=&start=2011&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=14&dStatArray=

 

 

If this is Rakin' Riley at his worst, then I am so so so happy...

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6 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Yea, you're not understanding my post at all

Look, I get it, analytics, trends, rates, missing out on a player...

I also get the eye test and what a grade A looks like with that...A for Austin man!

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5 hours ago, lbjames6 said:

Rhys Hoskins two years ago had the hottest start of any rookie I've ever seen. Austin Riley has to keep doing this for another month or so to rival that. 

Well, technically I'm still right since I said "one of". 😀

Actually looking into the numbers, Riley is actually on pace to beat both Hoskins and Olson.  Not saying he will keep it up, so you're right that he has to keep doing this in order to rival Hoskins (and the also mentioned Olson).  Riley is up there though of course.

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10 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

Well, technically I'm still right since I said "one of". 😀

Actually looking into the numbers, Riley is actually on pace to beat both Hoskins and Olson.  Not saying he will keep it up, so you're right that he has to keep doing this in order to rival Hoskins (and the also mentioned Olson).  Riley is up there though of course.

Story? 

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4 minutes ago, urban2014 said:

Story? 

Yes, his rookie season as well if that's what you meant.  Giving Riley his number of ABs, Riley would have hit somewhere in the mid-40's for HRs.  Obviously this is mostly meaningless as Riley won't keep up this pace, but oh well.

Again, obviously the pace will slow at some point, but Riley is on pace for over 70 HRs right now stretched out over a full season.

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How quickly you all forget about Gary Sanchez

I think the Austin Riley owners can look back at all of the aforementioned hot start guys (Sanchez, Story, Hoskins, Olsen), who were all highly touted not 'out of nowhere' guys, and take solace in the fact that while it hasn't been the non stop glory each of these guy provided out of the gate, they have all remained solid performers worthy of high picks, being kept despite what the non-owner, SSS, doomsdayers guys said about them.

And, for the most part, what they said about the others is the same stuff being echoed here. 

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41 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

Well, technically I'm still right since I said "one of". 😀

Actually looking into the numbers, Riley is actually on pace to beat both Hoskins and Olson.  Not saying he will keep it up, so you're right that he has to keep doing this in order to rival Hoskins (and the also mentioned Olson).  Riley is up there though of course.

I was just trying to give Rhys some props because he won me a lot of money that season haha. Olson did have an awesome season as well that year too. 

At any rate, we've got a gem on our hands now. I don't expect it to last all season but hopefully he doesn't slump too hard. 

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2 hours ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

You're all excited about his home run binge in a small sample but don't want to acknowledge that he has been hacking (24% swinging strike rate, 40% chase rate, 56% contact rate) in that same small sample.  He has a 50% HR/FB rate as well.  It goes without saying that this isn't sustainable with those numbers.  So, unless he's capable of much better plate discipline than what he's shown, this is mostly a mirage.

 

Also, Mike Trout's highest swinging strike rate in a 14-game sample (# of games Riley has played) is 12.1% (link below).  So Trout at his worst isn't half as bad as Riley has been.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10155&position=OF&statArr=110&legend=1&split=base&time=game&ymin=&ymax=&start=2011&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=14&dStatArray=

 

giphy.gif

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50 minutes ago, hgh22 said:

he lowered his k rate in AAA from 29% in 2018 to 19% in 2019 - I would say thats at least some indication he can manage the strike zone ok when the heater is over.

His strikeout rate has improved in the 2nd half pretty much every season in the minors too outside of last year(he has a knee injury last year that affected him as well).

Could see him having high SO’s rates early in career but I feel confident he’ll be able to adjust with more experience. 

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Unless you're getting paid, it's hard to sell this guy based on expected analytical regression.  Some guys just rake for long stretches, analytics be damned.  I would imagine tho that there is a believer in your league who would pay a steep price for Riley.  All it takes is one.

 

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I for one am an owner in a keeper league who appreciates the posts of @sportsfreak2744

There are some great things about these boards, but among the worst is the echo chamber that all these player threads have. Often reactionary and emotional, and anyone who disagrees is a “hater” or “missed out,” even when facts are presented. 

We don’t have it all figured out. Some of it might be luck. And even if it is, there’s no saying when good luck/bad luck start or stop. But MORE information is never a bad thing, and ridiculing someone from adding to the whole picture is childish and lazy. 

Keep the info coming, and if someone has some data to refute the other data, I’m all ears. 

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[...] I know it's non sustainable, but if he can be a top-10 3B option moving forward I feel like keeping him would probably be in my best interest to begin with.  I'd be happy with a 3B who hits .250-.280 with 25+ HR's in that Braves lineup.

Edited by tonycpsu
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Analytics may rule...

But not as much as owning Riley rules!

I say keep him and don't sell but I don't have all these numbers to present to you...besides the awesome stats he's produced in only a few weeks...all I can do is see that this kid's different in all the best ways...and I'm willing to stand by that...hit another one tonight Austin!

 

Sidenote I am surprised Riley is so polarizing...I mean cmon....cant we just enjoy anything these days...

Edited by dfstout
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14 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

I for one am an owner in a keeper league who appreciates the posts of @sportsfreak2744

There are some great things about these boards, but among the worst is the echo chamber that all these player threads have. Often reactionary and emotional, and anyone who disagrees is a “hater” or “missed out,” even when facts are presented. 

We don’t have it all figured out. Some of it might be luck. And even if it is, there’s no saying when good luck/bad luck start or stop. But MORE information is never a bad thing, and ridiculing someone from adding to the whole picture is childish and lazy. 

Keep the info coming, and if someone has some data to refute the other data, I’m all ears. 

 

Thanks!  I am not here to root against the guy or try to be intentionally negative.  I saw his great start, looked into the numbers a bit more out of curiosity, and saw some red flags.  I fully realize you can take this information in one of two main ways.

1) He's been able to hit 7 homeruns in 14 games despite the plate discipline issues. He's probably more disciplined than what he's shown.

2) He's been impossibly effective with his contact and when the batted ball luck regresses it could get ugly in a hurry if the plate discipline isn't much better.

Of course, there are plenty of other scenarios between these two extremes that could play out as well.  In all likelihood, he's not this great of a HR hitter and he's not this much of a free swinger.  So he's somewhere in between, a valuable bat, especially long term.  But if I were a redraft owner or looking to win this year in a keeper/dynasty, I'd be selling high.

 

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Sure his peripherals have some ugly numbers, but just about everyone called up goes through an adjustment period with some struggles before they settle in... The difference here is his ability to still barrell up with the best of them while adjusting to mlb pitching -- IMO it shows how good his ability is. 

I expect improvement in the peripherals as he settles in.

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5 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Thanks!  I am not here to root against the guy or try to be intentionally negative.  I saw his great start, looked into the numbers a bit more out of curiosity, and saw some red flags.  I fully realize you can take this information in one of two main ways.

1) He's been able to hit 7 homeruns in 14 games despite the plate discipline issues. He's probably more disciplined than what he's shown.

2) He's been impossibly effective with his contact and when the batted ball luck regresses it could get ugly in a hurry if the plate discipline isn't much better.

Of course, there are plenty of other scenarios between these two extremes that could play out as well.  In all likelihood, he's not this great of a HR hitter and he's not this much of a free swinger.  So he's somewhere in between, a valuable bat, especially long term.  But if I were a redraft owner or looking to win this year in a keeper/dynasty, I'd be selling high.

 

This is great stuff right here...I'm gonna hold but great stuff...for real...

 

But can I just hope hes the next Mike Trout ....only better....just a little...lol

 

Keep the perspective comin' ...I agree ...its great for this forum big time...

Edited by dfstout
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