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Austin Riley 2019 Outlook


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Does anyone know if all of his HR's are coming off a specific pitch or has he been cranking out all kinds of pitches?  I know a lot of young hitters tend to feast on fastballs and then start to struggle once pitchers adjust and start giving them way more breaking stuff, but if he's hit some breaking ball HR's that'd be encouraging.

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How did the benching go?  🤔

I haven't watched any of his games until today, but if he's primarily hitting homeruns off of cavalier meatballs like the one Watson just threw, then I'd expect major regression, because at some point

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3 minutes ago, cizastro said:

Does anyone know if all of his HR's are coming off a specific pitch or has he been cranking out all kinds of pitches?  I know a lot of young hitters tend to feast on fastballs and then start to struggle once pitchers adjust and start giving them way more breaking stuff, but if he's hit some breaking ball HR's that'd be encouraging.

He’s destroying fastballs.  Sliders are eating him up.  But he’s done fairly well on curveballs. 

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8 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

He’s destroying fastballs.  Sliders are eating him up.  But he’s done fairly well on curveballs. 

Did you know he was supposed to come up as a pitcher...interesting stuff...

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12 minutes ago, dfstout said:

This is great stuff right here...I'm gonna hold but great stuff...for real...

 

But can I just hope hes the next Mike Trout ....only better....just a little...lol

 

Keep the perspective comin' ...I agree ...its great for this forum big time...

 

By all means, enjoy the ride!  The kid is definitely talented.  

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4 hours ago, urban2014 said:

Sell high is all I keep hearing from people that don't have him

I have him. I also said on page one of this thread I like him more than any of the other rookies that came up around the same time he did. I am definitely high on this kid. But you should definitely consider selling high on him. It all depends what you can get back and he definitely isn't someone you need to move before the bottom drops out. But in the unlikely event someone will pay me like this production is relatively sustainable, I'm shipping him out. Your league specifics may vary, but it's hardly insane to put him on the block and see if you get any big bites.

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5 hours ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

You're all excited about his home run binge in a small sample but don't want to acknowledge that he has been hacking (24% swinging strike rate, 40% chase rate, 56% contact rate) in that same small sample.  He has a 50% HR/FB rate as well.  It goes without saying that this isn't sustainable with those numbers.  So, unless he's capable of much better plate discipline than what he's shown, this is mostly a mirage.

 

Also, Mike Trout's highest swinging strike rate in a 14-game sample (# of games Riley has played) is 12.1% (link below).  So Trout at his worst isn't half as bad as Riley has been.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=10155&position=OF&statArr=110&legend=1&split=base&time=game&ymin=&ymax=&start=2011&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=14&dStatArray=

 

who said I don't wanna acknowledge that? I fully acknowledge your stats, but they don't matter much until we have enough sample size.

 

ps. i like your stat backed up by evidence. but trout's lowest walk rate in a 14 game sample is something like 3% in a 14 game sample. So trout at hist worst was worse than Riley in one aspect. BUT its all frikkin irrelevant because the point was not to compare Riley to Trout but to say that anyone could look s--- in a small sample size or like the best player in a small sample size, we just have to get more data

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17 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

I have him. I also said on page one of this thread I like him more than any of the other rookies that came up around the same time he did. I am definitely high on this kid. But you should definitely consider selling high on him. It all depends what you can get back and he definitely isn't someone you need to move before the bottom drops out. But in the unlikely event someone will pay me like this production is relatively sustainable, I'm shipping him out. Your league specifics may vary, but it's hardly insane to put him on the block and see if you get any big bites.

 

I was talking with a few guys regarding selling him high in a keeper league...I wouldn't trade for another bat because his bat is as good as anyone's right now and if he pans out then its a wash, but I would entertain for a tier 1 Ace perhaps, but not sure that anyone will do that unless they're in love w/ Riley (too bad I can't trade Riley to myself lol) 

Consensus was that by selling high, we may be selling ourselves short...if you hold and he slumps then you can get a decent return based on his prior stats, but if you hold and he does become one of the best this year then that is when you trade for a tier 1 Ace in a keeper league before the year ends....I say hold either way...

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1 minute ago, rlaalsrb said:

who said I don't wanna acknowledge that? I fully acknowledge your stats, but they don't matter much until we have enough sample size.

 

ps. i like your stat backed up by evidence. but trout's lowest walk rate in a 14 game sample is something like 3% in a 14 game sample. So trout at hist worst was worse than Riley in one aspect. BUT its all frikkin irrelevant because the point was not to compare Riley to Trout but to say that anyone could look s--- in a small sample size or like the best player in a small sample size, we just have to get more data

 

You are excited about what he might be given that he's hit 7 home runs in a 14 games, but when it comes to his plate discipline you want to see more data.  Yes, these home runs are already "banked", but if his plate discipline stats are unreliable due to small sample (which is a fair point) then it stands to reason his 7 home runs could also be an unreliable indicator of his true talent level because of the same small sample.

This is all just conjecture at this stage but my point is simply that his home run binge has been just as extreme as his plate discipline has been.  It will be interesting to see what type of player he really is.

 

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5 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

You are excited about what he might be given that he's hit 7 home runs in a 14 games, but when it comes to his plate discipline you want to see more data.  Yes, these home runs are already "banked", but if his plate discipline stats are unreliable due to small sample (which is a fair point) then it stands to reason his 7 home runs could also be an unreliable indicator of his true talent level because of the same small sample.

This is all just conjecture at this stage but my point is simply that his home run binge has been just as extreme as his plate discipline has been.  It will be interesting to see what type of player he really is.

 

Please show me where i showed my excitement about Riley's home runs. I'm in this thread because I own him yes but I'm not banking on one stat and dismissing the other, my message has been consistent. GET MORE DATA

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4 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

You are excited about what he might be given that he's hit 7 home runs in a 14 games, but when it comes to his plate discipline you want to see more data.  Yes, these home runs are already "banked", but if his plate discipline stats are unreliable due to small sample (which is a fair point) then it stands to reason his 7 home runs could also be an unreliable indicator of his true talent level because of the same small sample.

This is all just conjecture at this stage but my point is simply that his home run binge has been just as extreme as his plate discipline has been.  It will be interesting to see what type of player he really is.

 

Well if there’s one thing there’s a consensus on is the power is as real as it gets. Hard hit % and barrels off the charts good. And only one pop up far. 

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2 hours ago, dfstout said:

Did you know he was supposed to come up as a pitcher...interesting stuff...

 

Not exactly.

 

Predraft many teams preferred him as a pitcher as he threw 94 and they didn't like his athleticism.  To his credit Riley busted his tail toning up and doing agility work to get quicker and the Braves were willing to take a shot.   Their faith and his hard work are being rewarded.

I love guys that show the ability to continue to take instruction and improve.  Even from last year to this year he's narrowed his hitting base and reduced his front arm bar (which free up his hands more) and is doing a better job staying behind the ball. 

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8 hours ago, lbjames6 said:

I was just trying to give Rhys some props because he won me a lot of money that season haha. Olson did have an awesome season as well that year too. 

At any rate, we've got a gem on our hands now. I don't expect it to last all season but hopefully he doesn't slump too hard. 

It's all good.  When I made the other post yesterday that you quoted, I actually forgot about Hoskins, which is odd because I had him that season too and obviously he really helped me win my league too.

Yeah, Riley should be a pretty nice player to have the rest of the way and beyond.  Like somebody else said, I can understand selling in redrafts or if you're making a huge push this season in a keeper/dynasty league, but I'm still holding like I said before and wouldn't fault anybody for doing the same.  It gets said in almost every post, and I know I've said it multiple times too, but obviously what he is doing now is unsustainable.  It is not a fluke though either, as he is a legit top hitting prospect with an OPS of .900 or over 1.000 at every stop in my minors recently other than his first trip to AAA last season.  All of that is why I wouldn't fault anybody for holding no matter what league you are in.

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6 hours ago, dfstout said:

 

I was talking with a few guys regarding selling him high in a keeper league...I wouldn't trade for another bat because his bat is as good as anyone's right now and if he pans out then its a wash, but I would entertain for a tier 1 Ace perhaps, but not sure that anyone will do that unless they're in love w/ Riley (too bad I can't trade Riley to myself lol) 

Consensus was that by selling high, we may be selling ourselves short...if you hold and he slumps then you can get a decent return based on his prior stats, but if you hold and he does become one of the best this year then that is when you trade for a tier 1 Ace in a keeper league before the year ends....I say hold either way...

I can't see anyone giving up an ace for him.  

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11 hours ago, Call me Red said:

I can't see anyone giving up an ace for him.  

 

10 hours ago, urban2014 said:

I was considering selling for an ace as well,  but way too soon 

Right ...as I said ....in order to do so you would have to hold in the meantime...

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1 hour ago, BCMarch10 said:

He obviously can hit homers and strike out. I doubt he can sustain a high BA. Right now he's a beast.

 

This reads like a funeral at Schrute Farms...

and yes he is a beast, but i think he can maintain a solid BA, as they adjust so shall Rakin' Riley!

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