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Matt Breida 2019 Outlook


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7 minutes ago, martinjlm said:

Well done. Mostert was involved a LOT sooner then expected. SF won't be having blow outs like this so looks like Mostert is the back to own in all formats since Breida is not the pass catching back or the goal line back. 

As I said, some people see what they want to see, and some people see what actually happened...

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To those complaining about Breida's usage, here are the exact RB carries & catches in the order they played out yesterday: --SF drive #1 Breida 6 yard run  (SF gets a TD pass and goes up

[...] An 8th round pick just put up 132 yards and all I see is complaining. This thread should be a celebration of a late round RB pick that actually hit.

Whatever. Who was getting Goal Line work when Coleman was playing? Wilson was on the fricken practice squad. Breida 5-11" - 195 Wilson 6' - 194 My girlfriend says one inch makes ZERO differe

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2 minutes ago, Corleone said:

As I said, some people see what they want to see, and some people see what actually happened...

Let's see what actually happened:

Mostert - 5 targets 4/68/1 receiving.(starting on the second drive of the day he was running and receiving not after the blowout started).

This also actually happened: 

-10 Yard Penalty
(5:01) (Shotgun) R.Mostert left tackle for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on SF-M.Person, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 29 - No Play. Penalty on SF-L.Tomlinson, Offensive Holding, declined.

 

 

 

Breida - 2 targets 1/11/0 receiving. 

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3 minutes ago, martinjlm said:

Let's see what actually happened:

Mostert - 5 targets 4/68/1 receiving.(starting on the second drive of the day he was running and receiving not after the blowout started).

This also actually happened: 

-10 Yard Penalty
(5:01) (Shotgun) R.Mostert left tackle for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on SF-M.Person, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 29 - No Play. Penalty on SF-L.Tomlinson, Offensive Holding, declined.

Breida - 2 targets 1/11/0 receiving. 

I already posted what actually happened.
What you posted did not officially happen. I highlighted the relevant parts. 
When there are multiple holding calls flagged on a single play, that does make it easier for a player with the ball to do well.

I have both Breida and Mostert on the same team. I hope both do well. But based on what we've both heard and seen from the coaching staff and during the actual games, I don't share the same opinion as you and I will leave it at that.

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5 hours ago, gbill2004 said:

With 3 RBs in the game that's the majority. 

Actually, Mostert and Breida split touches at 8 through the first drive of the third when it turned into a blowout. Wilson had 2 at that point, both on the goal line.

Breida is basically being used as a between the 20s committee member. Aka the least valuable touches on a per-touch basis from a fantasy perspective.

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3 hours ago, Corleone said:

To those complaining about Breida's usage, here are the exact RB carries & catches in the order they played out yesterday:

--SF drive #1
Breida 6 yard run 
(SF gets a TD pass and goes up 7-0)

--SF drive #2
Mostert 3 yard run
Breida 12 yard run
Breida 6 yard run
Mostert 39 yard TD catch
(SF up 14-7)

--SF drive #3
Jimmy G interception

--SF drive #4
Breida 4 yard run
Breida 5 yard run
Breida 21 yard run
Wilson 4 yard run
Wilson 2 yard TD run 
(SF up 21-7)

--SF drive #5
Mostert 1 yard run
(Punt)

--SF drive #6
Breida 11 yard catch
Mostert 16 yard catch (on a pass by Pettis)
Mostert 5 yard run
(SF gets a FG goes up 24-10 at halftime)

--SF drive #7 to open 3rd quarter
Breida 6 yard run
Breida 15 yard run
Mostert 9 yard run
Mostert 13 yard catch
Mostert 1 yard run
(SF gets another TD pass and is up 31-10)

--SF drive #8
Breida 7 yard run
Breida 18 yard run
Mostert 1 yard run
Breida -4 yard run
Breida 12 yard run
(SF gets a FG and is up 34-10 with 4:34 left in the 3rd quarter. At this point, Breida gets rested for the rest of the game with the huge lead)

So at the point that Breida was pulled with SF having a 24 point lead and less than 20 minutes of game time left...
Breida: 12 carries - 121 yards + 1 catch - 11 yards
Mostert: 6 carries - 20 yards + 3 catches - 68 yards - 1 TD
Wilson: 2 carries - 6 yards - 1 TD

Some people see what they want to see, and some people see what actually happened.

You just cherrypicked a drive where they were up 21 as “not being a blowout” because he got 4 touches on the drive. It was already a blowout at that point.

Lmao.

Anyone looking at SF through 2 games or at that game log knows that this is fully a committee with Breida getting the least valuable touches.

Edited by Ruut6
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3 minutes ago, Ruut6 said:

You just cherrypicked a drive where they were up 21 as “not being a blowout” because he got 4 touches on the drive. It was already a blowout at that point.

Lmao.

Anyone looking at SF through 2 games or at that game log knows that this is fully a committee with Breida getting the least valuable touches.

I cherrypicked nothing. Those are literally the exact touches that the RB's had in the game, in the order that they happened. You are 100% wrong.

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I was actually happy with what I got out of Breida. Started him over Mixon yesterday. I think he can be a reliable fill in moving forward. Is anyone worried about him laying eggs in the future? I feel like he will always get his touches, even in the crowded backfield.

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12 minutes ago, Corleone said:

I cherrypicked nothing. Those are literally the exact touches that the RB's had in the game, in the order that they happened. You are 100% wrong.

Agreed... i watched some of the game Brieda was pretty far ahead on the touches before it became a blowout. Of course SF is gonna rest their most explosive player when there is no point of risking his injury. People look at the final box score and argue otherwise. I do have to say that it is disappointing Wilson got the goal line touches, I definitely think they are looking to limit Brieda to between the 20's or so.

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4 minutes ago, Maxtap said:

I was actually happy with what I got out of Breida. Started him over Mixon yesterday. I think he can be a reliable fill in moving forward. Is anyone worried about him laying eggs in the future? I feel like he will always get his touches, even in the crowded backfield.

I think the only way he lays an egg is if he gets injured and can't play. He's absolutely electric when he touches the ball.

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I think most people would rank Breida somewhere around 25 in current RB rankings.  I can't see anyone ranking him lower than 30.  If he's your RB2 you could do better, if he's your RB3 you're doing fine, and if he's your RB4 you're doing great! 

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I don't know why sone of you expected Breida to get a big workload. Him and Coleman were always going to split just like him and mostert will split. Both can be good and declaring one more valuable then the other is just speculation. They should be ranked equally. I own both and feel both are worth a flex start

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51 minutes ago, Corleone said:

I cherrypicked nothing. Those are literally the exact touches that the RB's had in the game, in the order that they happened. You are 100% wrong.

You blatantly cherrypicked 24 points as the denominator for being a “blowout.”

The touches were even basically the entire game and cutting it off when the game goes from a 21 pt lead to a 24 pt lead because Brieda got 4 touches on that drive is quite exactly the definition of cherrypicking.

Mostert and Breida were evenly involved throughout the first half (7 to 6).

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You’re never gonna feel secure with these guys. Deal with it or avoid.

 

Or pick them all up and wait until the injuries pile up to dictate usage.

 

Breida is a very good football player. Who would you rather have right now? Brand names like Devonta Freeman or Leonard Fournette? Not me. But if I get bitchslapped with a 5 touch game or goose egg as he limps off I can’t complain.

 

risk/reward may or may not be your thing and there’s no need to argue it further.

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11 minutes ago, Ruut6 said:

You blatantly cherrypicked 24 points as the denominator for being a “blowout.”

The touches were even basically the entire game and cutting it off when the game goes from a 21 pt lead to a 24 pt lead because Brieda got 4 touches on that drive is quite exactly the definition of cherrypicking.

Mostert and Breida were evenly involved throughout the first half (7 to 6).

I literally posted the exact touches that the RB's had. Breida's last series started with 9:12 to go in the 3rd quarter. It was a 4 minute and 33 second drive, and ended with an extra 3 points and just 4:39 to go in the 3rd quarter.

So overall, SF went up beyond 3 TD's/3 extra points, while using up an extra 4 minutes and 33 seconds and reducing the game clock to under 20 minutes total.
They then decided to rest Breida.
And not rest Mostert and Wilson.
If you think that equates to the 49ers considering Mostert as a bigger part of their path going forward, well you are entitled to your opinion. Best of luck.

And overall, to anyone complaining a RB they used in fantasy "only" rushed for 121 yards and "only" had 132 yards of offense...wow.

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1 hour ago, scheibler said:

I don't know why sone of you expected Breida to get a big workload. Him and Coleman were always going to split just like him and mostert will split. Both can be good and declaring one more valuable then the other is just speculation. They should be ranked equally. I own both and feel both are worth a flex start

100% agree.

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44 minutes ago, Corleone said:

I literally posted the exact touches that the RB's had.

Yes, through one cherrypicked series.

Suddenly the very next series doesn’t count because now it’s a blowout? A 21 point lead wasn’t enough of a lead to constitute a blowout? Had to be 24?

Lol.

Breida looks really good as a runner. He torched a horrible defense and struggled against a good one. He doesn’t sniff goal line work. He’s uninvolved in the passing game.

He will always be involved as long as he’s healthy. That was always the plan. But his upside is almost capped at his rushing yardage. His career TD% numbers are terrible and he’s not a passing option.

Really good bye week filler. RB2? No.

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20 minutes ago, Ruut6 said:

Yes, through one cherrypicked series.

Suddenly the very next series doesn’t count because now it’s a blowout? A 21 point lead wasn’t enough of a lead to constitute a blowout? Had to be 24?

Lol.

Breida looks really good as a runner. He torched a horrible defense and struggled against a good one. He doesn’t sniff goal line work. He’s uninvolved in the passing game.

He will always be involved as long as he’s healthy. That was always the plan. But his upside is almost capped at his rushing yardage. His career TD% numbers are terrible and he’s not a passing option.

Really good bye week filler. RB2? No.

You talk about cherrypicking but then quote one line of what I said, leaving the rest out and not addressing it. Okay then...

By the way, where did I say Breida was an RB2? Or any level of ranking?

My initial post begins by stating "To those complaining about Breida's usage". If you're not complaining about his usage, then what are you even trying to start an argument for? 

As I said to you before, best of luck.

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I really don't understand the notion that Breida "is not the pass catching back".  To those that think that: have you ever watched the kid play or are you just staring at box scores and making that assumption?  Just because he has less catches than Mostert in 2019, does not mean he's incapable of catching the football or isn't the "pass catching back".  Its TWO games folks, sometimes thats just how things go.  For example, on the series where Mostert scored a receiving TD, Breida was in on at least the prior two plays.  Given how they rotate, thats bound to happen.  Sometimes Breida will be the one on the field that scores, sometimes he wont.

 

I've watched the game, reviewed the snap counts, routes run and utilization reports and when also factoring in the blowout, I just haven't seen anything that would deter me from picking Breida as the back I would personally want to own on this team.  Others have a different opinion, and that's totally fine - in fact it's part of what makes this forum such a wonderful resource.  I can see a strong case for Mostert - he's very good too and will seamlessly slide into the role they envisioned for Coleman, which is an extremely significant one and both will be quite productive :)

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5 minutes ago, martinjlm said:

I’ve heard a lot about him being “injury prone” but did he really miss just one game last year?

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/matt-breida/

 

doesn't tell the whole strory of his "injury prone" tag ... allow me:

as a Breida owner last year i would've preferred he missed games, rather than being "ACTIVE!!1!!1" then limping off the field every other series ... missing big chunks of time as a result. 

at least if he were "OUT", contingency could've been implemented ... see, the devil is in the detail - i'm sure all who owned him last year would concur. 

i got sick of it and just cut his arse ... no thanks. 

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12 minutes ago, martinjlm said:

I’ve heard a lot about him being “injury prone” but did he really miss just one game last year?

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/matt-breida/

 

He had a nagging ankle injury that he just couldn't shake and was out there almost every week trying to gut it out.  In a lot of those games he didn't have the same explosiveness and PoM described above, he missed chunks of games because the ankle would be too painful.

You can see the explosiveness is back this year, hoping he can stay healthy.  As a Niner fan, I appreciate how the staff has handled his reps this season so far, even though it's frustrating for fantasy owners.  

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