lvsaint429 1,774 Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 48 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said: I forgot to mention that they also signed him to get info from the Texans, a division rival. Anyone else concerned that luck might not be ready to start the season though? He’s a big part of why I love Mack Brisset is a decent backup so I don’t think it would affect him much. But I fully expect Luck out there week 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
KennyWoo 3,319 Posted August 6, 2019 Share Posted August 6, 2019 3 hours ago, Panthers8912 said: I forgot to mention that they also signed him to get info from the Texans, a division rival. This presupposes that Foreman has been in his playbook lately, which seems unlikely. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bgar15 521 Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 Not too much chatter here - prediction on his 2019 stats? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
KennyWoo 3,319 Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 10 minutes ago, bgar15 said: Not too much chatter here - prediction on his 2019 stats? Probably around RB20 with a little more downside than upside IMO. He's probably fairly priced, maybe a little overdrafted right now. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Braves16 550 Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 A sleeping giant. Health will be the issue. He missed a few games last year and was on a pitch count in the games immediately following his return. Still managed to rush for 900+ yards and 9 TDs. If he and Luck stay on the field all season, i see no reason why he can’t continue to improve...or at least equal last years’s numbers. Receptions will still be limited since Hines isnt going anywhere. My bullish prediction: 1200 rushing yards, 11 TDs 175 receiving, 1 TD. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SadFaceHappy 2,049 Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 6 minutes ago, Braves16 said: A sleeping giant. Health will be the issue. He missed a few games last year and was on a pitch count in the games immediately following his return. Still managed to rush for 900+ yards and 9 TDs. If he and Luck stay on the field all season, i see no reason why he can’t continue to improve...or at least equal last years’s numbers. Receptions will still be limited since Hines isnt going anywhere. My bullish prediction: 1200 rushing yards, 11 TDs 175 receiving, 1 TD. If he's healthy coming in, should be fine. Dealt with a pulled hamstring coming into last season that really limited early. Love the Colts line Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SadFaceHappy 2,049 Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 (edited) >2018 Colts: 1070 plays; 644 passes (2nd) 39 TDs, 408 rushes (17th) 13 TDs; 60/38 % pass/run 66.9 ppg; 40.2 passes/game, 25.4 rushes/game, 3.3 TDs 4461 passing (6th) + 1718 rushing (20th) = 6179 total yards (7th); 72/28 % split >>Mack 2018: 12 games; 195 carries, 908 yards, 9 TDs + 17/26 catches, 103 yards, 1 TD = 212 touches, 1011 yards, 10 TDs >>>Per game: 16.3 carries+1.4 rec = 17.7 touches, 84.3 yards, 0.83 TDs 17.7/66.9=26% usage rate 16.3/25.4=64% rushing attempts .83/3.3=25% TDs >>>>16 game pace: 283.2 touches, 1348.9 yards, 13.3 TDs Not bad. Solid RB2, borderline RB1 some years. But let's play with the numbers a little to get to 2019 projection... With Luck's injury/pain issues, a healthy Mack, a great offensive line, and a very good defense - maybe the Colts try for a bit more balance this year. Let's go from a 60/38 ratio to 57/41. Keeping them at 67 plays/game, that lowers passes per to 38 and increases rushes to 27.5. Since Mack receives two thirds of the team's rushing attempts, we can expect him to receive those additional carries - so 2 more per game. We'll bring him up to an even 20 touches/game. In 2018: 1011/212=4.8 yards/touch. Since I'm getting a little loopy, let's cut it off here and go for a projection based on the above... 2019 (assuming 15 games): 300 touches, 1440 total yards, 10-16 TDs If we improve his efficiency by 10%, it'd be 5.3 yards/touch * 300 touches = 1590 yards Decrease his efficiency by 10%, to 4.3 yards/touch, and he'd end up with 1290 yards CONCLUSION Assuming a mostly healthy season and similar usage, Mack's range seems to be 1200-1600 yards, 80-100 yards/game Note: I've done similar style projections in the Kamara, Chubb, and Montgomery threads if you liked this one Edited August 23, 2019 by SadFaceHappy 2 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
yanki01 176 Posted August 23, 2019 Share Posted August 23, 2019 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Trifecta 2,133 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 (edited) So Luck is retiring... How does this impact Mack? Edited August 25, 2019 by Trifecta Quote Link to post Share on other sites
gbill2004 1,480 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 Just now, Trifecta said: So Luck is retiring... How does this impact Mack? Not good for Mack's value. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
shakestreet 4,096 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 On 8/23/2019 at 11:17 AM, yanki01 said: Holy s--- Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Foppatosakic 184 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 (edited) Damn this lowers Macks ceiling but he still has a decent floor that he can attain. Edited August 25, 2019 by Foppatosakic Quote Link to post Share on other sites
TheDoctor 1,104 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, gbill2004 said: Not good for Mack's value. I mean the offensive line isn't retiring. Last I checked people are still taking RBs with suspect QBs early in drafts with worst offensive line situations. It will affect him, but overall he's going to be fine. Edited August 25, 2019 by TheDoctor 4 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Rickydragon 270 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 Well if you like Mack then it’s good because his value will plummet a round or two and you’ll get him for cheaper. From a football perspective I don’t see how this is positive. Without Luck, the chains will get moved less and there will be less scoring opportunities Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tenner 1,052 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 Mack prolly should fade about 8-12 picks now. He’s still the leading candidate in that rushing offense. Low end RB2. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
gbill2004 1,480 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 He goes from an upper tier RB2 to a lower tier RB2. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
gbill2004 1,480 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 14 minutes ago, TheDoctor said: I mean the offensive line isn't retiring. Last I checked people are still taking RBs with suspect QBs early in drafts with worst offensive line situations. It will affect him, but overall he's going to be fine. If opposing D's don't respect the pass as much they'll focus more on the run game, which will hurt Mack. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Impreza178 6,046 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 30 minutes ago, gbill2004 said: If opposing D's don't respect the pass as much they'll focus more on the run game, which will hurt Mack. Disagree A top 5 offensive line, mobile qb, and good D is a recipe for success on the ground. Volume 👆 5 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
nonstopfan 4,593 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 1 hour ago, gbill2004 said: If opposing D's don't respect the pass as much they'll focus more on the run game, which will hurt Mack. I think that they will have to respect the pass. Competent QB, Good O-line and good receiving corp. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
FantasyGeek2018 453 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 Was already not his biggest fan so easy pass now. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
miasma16 3,344 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 (edited) Meh, splitting hairs. Carry on. Edited August 25, 2019 by miasma16 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mocha4313 746 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 Meh. I can see why TY owners would be really panicked. With Mack though, he will be fine. Guys have been solid RB2s with worse QBs than Brisket and the O Line is still really good Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Jaw1 787 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 (edited) I had him in that potential RB1 tier/ high-end RB2 tier with guys like Aaron Jones and Damien Williams but w/o Luck his upside takes a significant hit. Still should see plenty of touches to be a solid RB2 but he'll no doubt find less space and scoring opportunities without Luck. Seems like a lot of people are overreacting, might be a decent buy-low opportunity as some owners think the sky is falling. Edited August 25, 2019 by Jaw1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
young dude 534 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 I have Mack. Personally I'm expecting slightly more yardage but fewer TDs. So that's a downgrade overall. Wish Luck the best though. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Benjamin1984 563 Posted August 25, 2019 Share Posted August 25, 2019 22 minutes ago, Jaw1 said: I had him in that potential RB1 tier/ high-end RB2 tier with guys like Aaron Jones and Damien Williams but w/o Luck his upside takes a significant hit. Still should see plenty of touches to be a solid RB2 but he'll no doubt find less space and scoring opportunities without Luck. Seems like a lot of people are overreacting, might be a decent buy-low opportunity as some owners think the sky is falling. Pretty much this. I preferred guys like Jones, Williams, Carson to Mack so I was never going to draft him. If he's potentially dropping 20 draft slots i'm so in on him. The draft capital difference is very big if we are talking 30-40 vs 50-60 imo. IF it's 20 spots or so. He's got way more upside with also a stable floor then any other back down at that point I would have to think. Right? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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