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Edward Cabrera SP Mia


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This guys needs a thread already. I'll rehash some of what I said in Deep sleepers.  This is a guy who I think will be a top 100 prospect by year's end if he stays healthy.

Probably also mentioned last year in this thread but Edward Cabrera SP marlins. Throws 100. Had 13ks no walks yesterday. It's his first jme in high A top. Seems like a Jorge Guzman/Sandy Alcantara type and no surprise he's on the same team. His control needs to get better but so far this year no complaints there.

 

 

 

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im crazy about this kid. Caught a couple starts from him last season. Remember loving the tail on his high 90s FB. He also threw a nasty slider. The reports on his curveball already being a wipeout pitch along with the vast improvements regarding his command and control make him a must add (I for some reason don't remember seeing his Curveball last year but the reports on it being wipeout gets me excited). He's always had a very high ceiling but the big 'questions' have always been, can he develop atleast an average 3rd pitch? and can he control and command his elite high 90s FB thats always had wicked movement. He also gets a ton of swinging strikes. Really Wish the minors kept pitch tfx stats. Would love to know his o-swing/z-sing percentages. He gave up a lot of HRs last year (I believe 11 HR in 100 innings). Really great to see him limiting HRs so far this season (1 HR in 41 innings).

 

He's got the perfect height and athletic build. Plus I wrote down after that 2nd start i watched him in last season that while his CH was below average, he had great arm action on it, (seemed to repeat his delivery on all his pitches) along with having nice depth and heaviness on his CH. Plus MPH differential between his 4 seam and CH is never going to be an issue. 

 

I really want to see a start of his this season. Im expecting(hoping) him to be promoted shortly. The development of him and Jordan Holloway looks to be legit. And both have top of the rotation upside. Holloway more of a legit #2 top of the rotation. Cabrera tho, with his absolutely filthy-nasty stuff and from what im hearing now, 4 pitch arsenal (FB/CB/SL/CH) and 3 of them plus (FB/CB/SL) and the potential to have a good changeup. He has the upside to be a legit #1 SP.

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2 hours ago, Csiebert5 said:

The 13k 0bb game was back on May 1, but yeah he’s been pretty damn good this year. Have had my eye on him since that game 

 

Yeah I copy and pasted what I wrote in the Deep Sleeper thread, he had a good game yesterday so I added a tweet about it.

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7 minutes ago, rasto21585 said:

If he continues these types of starts, is he a top 20 prospect at the end of the year?

That's very high. I'm not saying he can't, but I think the odds are that he won't. There are plenty of great prospects still in the minors and several pitchers ahead of him. But there's nothing wrong with being a top 50 prospect, which is more reasonable.

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6 hours ago, rasto21585 said:

If he continues these types of starts, is he a top 20 prospect at the end of the year?

 

Highly unlikely. If he's a consensus top 100 guy, that would be a huge success. A pitcher not being ranked and then just having a good year in high A isn't really that big of a deal. Usually 2-4 pitchers get ranked in the top 20, not sure this pace necessary puts him top 10-15. Still though, he's on a good trajectory to being an impact starter.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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On 5/31/2019 at 11:19 AM, JakeSarna said:

im crazy about this kid. Caught a couple starts from him last season. Remember loving the tail on his high 90s FB. He also threw a nasty slider. The reports on his curveball already being a wipeout pitch along with the vast improvements regarding his command and control make him a must add (I for some reason don't remember seeing his Curveball last year but the reports on it being wipeout gets me excited). He's always had a very high ceiling but the big 'questions' have always been, can he develop atleast an average 3rd pitch? and can he control and command his elite high 90s FB thats always had wicked movement. He also gets a ton of swinging strikes. Really Wish the minors kept pitch tfx stats. Would love to know his o-swing/z-sing percentages. He gave up a lot of HRs last year (I believe 11 HR in 100 innings). Really great to see him limiting HRs so far this season (1 HR in 41 innings).

 

He's got the perfect height and athletic build. Plus I wrote down after that 2nd start i watched him in last season that while his CH was below average, he had great arm action on it, (seemed to repeat his delivery on all his pitches) along with having nice depth and heaviness on his CH. Plus MPH differential between his 4 seam and CH is never going to be an issue. 

 

I really want to see a start of his this season. Im expecting(hoping) him to be promoted shortly. The development of him and Jordan Holloway looks to be legit. And both have top of the rotation upside. Holloway more of a legit #2 top of the rotation. Cabrera tho, with his absolutely filthy-nasty stuff and from what im hearing now, 4 pitch arsenal (FB/CB/SL/CH) and 3 of them plus (FB/CB/SL) and the potential to have a good changeup. He has the upside to be a legit #1 SP.

Awesome post Jake - I too believe his cangeup has allot of potential. And the reason for your confusion on seeing his slider and curveball: Scouts have always mentioned how you can call his curve a slider since it was difficult to differentiate. They were calling it slurves in some reports last year. This year you can tell its a curveball no doubt- and it's a very good one. Not to be a jackass since you nailed it on your post but he has a 3 pitch not 4 pitch arsenal <Fastball: Curveball: Changeup>.  The confusion between the curve and slider was the problem.  Like you said though-its the development of his 3rd pitch-his changeup- that will dictate reaching his ceiling and more importantly- sticking in the rotation or ending up in the bullpen. I gotta admit though-Cabreras fastball<>curveball combo would be deadly as a closer- especially considering the uptick on his fastball he'll have. 

 

But hes throwing his changeup allot this year. While hes been pretty consistent throwing to both righties and lefties during his minor league career-his changeip has made him even more effective against lefties. Im not a professional scout but ive been writing my own SRs since the early 80s. IMO-Cabrera has shown incredible improvements with his changeup. Like a previous poster mentioned- despite a poor chamgeup the last couple of years-his mechanics on his changeup have been amazing.  It really just comes down to how an effective changeup he can throw and learning how to mix his pitches and change his speeds. Until this season I believed Cabrera was destined to the bullpen. Not because he was lacking an average 3rd pitch but his inability to locate any of his pitches. Thats completely changed  this year. I really want to see what he can do in the southern league.

Edited by My Roy Williams Tramp Stam
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^ good catch. thanks for clearing up the confusion. now i get why i don't remember seeing any CBs last season, it was SLs or slurves the whole time. those sweeping curves sometimes confuse me for SL. 

Edited by JakeSarna
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  • 3 weeks later...

Does he pretty much need to develop a 4th pitch to be an SP, or is that not necessarily true? Curious on how many SP in mlb have a 3 pitch mix vs. 4 pitch mix.  Obviously it also depends on how the mix is used and quality of the actual pitches...

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22 minutes ago, jerrysarms said:

Does he pretty much need to develop a 4th pitch to be an SP, or is that not necessarily true? Curious on how many SP in mlb have a 3 pitch mix vs. 4 pitch mix.  Obviously it also depends on how the mix is used and quality of the actual pitches...

Usually a MLB starting SP needs to atleast have 3 average pitches. When a pitching prospect is unable to develop a quality 3rd pitch, they usually end up in relief (there are some pitchers that have been able to have success as a starter with only 2 pitches but not often and it usually catches up to them). Obviously there are also pitchers that end up in the BP with more then 2 pitches. Plus other factors like control come into play. 

 

The difference between 3 and 4 pitches does not necessarily matter when it come to starting.  And some pitchers with 3 plus pitches doesn't necessarily mean they'll be better off with 4 pitches. The 4th pitch obviously comes in handy when giving the batter just another pitch to think about.

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35 minutes ago, jerrysarms said:

Does he pretty much need to develop a 4th pitch to be an SP, or is that not necessarily true? Curious on how many SP in mlb have a 3 pitch mix vs. 4 pitch mix.  Obviously it also depends on how the mix is used and quality of the actual pitches...

I forgot to add my point that Cabrera needing a quality 3rd pitch (and consistent control) has always been a question mark with him. His changeup this year has improved a lot and its toned down questions about whether he can make it as a starter. We'll see how his changeup (and control/command) fares now that he's in the upper levels. But Cabrera does not need a 4th pitch to make it as a starter. 

Edited by JakeSarna
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4 hours ago, JakeSarna said:

I forgot to add my point that Cabrera needing a quality 3rd pitch (and consistent control) has always been a question mark with him. His changeup this year has improved a lot and its toned down questions about whether he can make it as a starter. We'll see how his changeup (and control/command) fares now that he's in the upper levels. But Cabrera does not need a 4th pitch to make it as a starter. 

Very good stuff and excellent points. Thanks!

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1st start in AA was 6IP 6hits 2BB 3ER 4K. There's only 24 pitchers 21 or younger that have logged an inning in AA, so that's a pretty nice line for being barely 21. Marlins might have figured something out in the minors with their pitchers. I'd imagine that Braxton Garrett will be joining him in AA soon. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

besides his improved control carrying over into AA. Hes getting better and better at getting more groundouts. a 56% gb% in AA so far but Obviously a 18 inning sample size is too small to read anything into. Tho hes been consistently improving his gb% the last couple of seasons. His 11 HRs in 100 innings last season with Greensboro was a huge red flag. In 58 innings with Jupiter this season he only gave up 1 HR while sporting a 11.33 K/9. Keeping the ball on the ground while vastly improving his k/9 along with the development of his changeup is having Cabrera looking like a possible elite fantasy SP.

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