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Why dont people take Brady #1 overall


Dr. Whom

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I was looking at some of my leagues scoring and Brady was almost 200 points better than the next WR or RB.

If Brady is going to throw over 40 TD's again this year, then he will outscore any RB and WR. What say you?

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I was looking at some of my leagues scoring and Brady was almost 200 points better than the next WR or RB.

If Brady is going to throw over 40 TD's again this year, then he will outscore any RB and WR. What say you?

Supply and demand.

Brady v. the next WR or RB is not the comparison you need to make. In a traditional 12 team league, you start 12 QBs, 24 RBs, and 24 WRs. Are there 12 QBs that are servicable as starters? Yes. How about 24 RBs and 24 WRs? Not so much. If you waited until the 5th round to grab a QB, you'll probably get a top 7 or 8 QB. If you wait that long for a WR or for sure a RB, it'll be much thinner at those positions.

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If I was guarenteed Brady would throw 15 more TD's than the next guy like he did last season, I could see drafting him in the top 3. But he'll more than likely end up throwing in the high 30's which will probably be about 6-8 more than the next guy who was taken about 20 spots later. That's not value my friend.

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If I was guarenteed Brady would throw 15 more TD's than the next guy like he did last season, I could see drafting him in the top 3. But he'll more than likely end up throwing in the high 30's which will probably be about 6-8 more than the next guy who was taken about 20 spots later. That's not value my friend.

i dont know why everyone is so quick to assume that he will not come close to what he did last year. he's still got moss and he's still got welker. just because manning had a droppoff from his record breaking year doesn't mean that brady will too. and if you are worrying about dropoff's then RB's taken #1 should be as much of a concern. see shaun alexander, priest holmes, marshall faulk, etc in how they blew away the field one year, and the next, were not much better than waiver wire material. plus, throw in the fact that rb's just by the nature of their position are much more likely to get injured than a qb, especially one with the pocket presence of brady. i wouldn't take him #1, but would understand exactly why someone would.

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i dont know why everyone is so quick to assume that he will not come close to what he did last year. he's still got moss and he's still got welker. just because manning had a droppoff from his record breaking year doesn't mean that brady will too. and if you are worrying about dropoff's then RB's taken #1 should be as much of a concern. see shaun alexander, priest holmes, marshall faulk, etc in how they blew away the field one year, and the next, were not much better than waiver wire material. plus, throw in the fact that rb's just by the nature of their position are much more likely to get injured than a qb, especially one with the pocket presence of brady. i wouldn't take him #1, but would understand exactly why someone would.

I agree with this. I would not take him at #1, but I would definitely consider taking him middle-late 1st round if I am looking at some risky RB1's.

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Umm, because usually when athletes set records one year they don't break them again the following year.

Heck, if you think he'll throw between 45 and 100 TD's again, by all means, take him #1

For the record, I have him ranked #6 after the BIG 5 (AP, LT, ADDAI, SJAX, and WESTY)

i dont know why everyone is so quick to assume that he will not come close to what he did last year. he's still got moss and he's still got welker. just because manning had a droppoff from his record breaking year doesn't mean that brady will too. and if you are worrying about dropoff's then RB's taken #1 should be as much of a concern. see shaun alexander, priest holmes, marshall faulk, etc in how they blew away the field one year, and the next, were not much better than waiver wire material. plus, throw in the fact that rb's just by the nature of their position are much more likely to get injured than a qb, especially one with the pocket presence of brady. i wouldn't take him #1, but would understand exactly why someone would.
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i dont know why everyone is so quick to assume that he will not come close to what he did last year. he's still got moss and he's still got welker. just because manning had a droppoff from his record breaking year doesn't mean that brady will too. and if you are worrying about dropoff's then RB's taken #1 should be as much of a concern. see shaun alexander, priest holmes, marshall faulk, etc in how they blew away the field one year, and the next, were not much better than waiver wire material. plus, throw in the fact that rb's just by the nature of their position are much more likely to get injured than a qb, especially one with the pocket presence of brady. i wouldn't take him #1, but would understand exactly why someone would.

First of all didn't Manning still have Harrison and Wayne the season after he broke the TD record? So, your Moss & Welker argument doesn't fly. As for RBs taken at #1 , yeah that LT2 hasn't done much the last few seasons has he?

The point is NE dominated the league in 2007 via the air and the Giants provided a blueprint on how to neutralize their attack in the SB. Perfect regular season be damned, Belichick wants to win SBs. So, he will revise his offensive strategy from a heavily weighted air attack in order to succeed in 2008. Look for a more balanced offensive attack from the Pats in 2008 and thus a reduction in Brady's numbers. A reduction in Brady's numbers brings him back closer to the other QBs and as a result makes him less worthy of the #1 pick. As endzoneview already said, guarantee me Brady will dominate at the QB position like he did in 2007 and I'll take him #1. But, I think his numbers end up closer to Peyton's, Romo's, etc. in 2008.

I wouldn't take him before late in round one at the earliest.

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Supply and demand.

Brady v. the next WR or RB is not the comparison you need to make. In a traditional 12 team league, you start 12 QBs, 24 RBs, and 24 WRs. Are there 12 QBs that are servicable as starters? Yes. How about 24 RBs and 24 WRs? Not so much. If you waited until the 5th round to grab a QB, you'll probably get a top 7 or 8 QB. If you wait that long for a WR or for sure a RB, it'll be much thinner at those positions.

If you wait until the 5th round to take a QB, then you are gambling on a Garrard and D. Anderson to repeat. I don't think you are taking into account the injury factor and stolen touches by other offensive personnal on the field. The potential for your 1st round pick to get injured (S-JAX anyone?) is far greater if you take a RB or WR. Majority of teams will be using two-back systems anyways as no one RB can withstand a season of pounding.

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Umm, because usually when athletes set records one year they don't break them again the following year.

Heck, if you think he'll throw between 45 and 100 TD's again, by all means, take him #1

For the record, I have him ranked #6 after the BIG 5 (AP, LT, ADDAI, SJAX, and WESTY)

endzoneview, I'm curious about you ranking Addai #3. I know he is part of an explosive offense, but imo he takes himself out of far too many games for my liking, Rhodes and Hart are in Indy to steal carries and you can't count on Addai to still be playing come fantasy playoff time.

I'm interested to see your reasons behind his ranking. Thanks.

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If you wait until the 5th round to take a QB, then you are gambling on a Garrard and D. Anderson to repeat. I don't think you are taking into account the injury factor and stolen touches by other offensive personnal on the field. The potential for your 1st round pick to get injured (S-JAX anyone?) is far greater if you take a RB or WR. Majority of teams will be using two-back systems anyways as no one RB can withstand a season of pounding.

Yeah the 5th round is pushing it, but you can still grab Brees, Romo, Palmer, Big Ben in the 3rd or 4th. In most mocks I have seen the only QBs to get into the first two rounds are Brady and Peyton.

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To me, I can get by with a Brees or Hasselbeck as my QB to pair with my two stud RBs.

I cannot get by with Brady as my QB with LenDale White and Selvin Young as my RBs.

I know these may be a little extreme examples, but RBs are the way to go. I will say this... Last season, a guy in one of my leagues had Brady and he didn't make the playoffs. The reason, his RBs were terrible. I had Carson Plamer and finished second (QBs score very highly in the league, as well) becasue I had solid RBs.

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To me, I can get by with a Brees or Hasselbeck as my QB to pair with my two stud RBs.

I cannot get by with Brady as my QB with LenDale White and Selvin Young as my RBs.

I know these may be a little extreme examples, but RBs are the way to go. I will say this... Last season, a guy in one of my leagues had Brady and he didn't make the playoffs. The reason, his RBs were terrible. I had Carson Plamer and finished second (QBs score very highly in the league, as well) becasue I had solid RBs.

I can echo these comments. I had Brady and Romo in a 2QB league and lost in the final playoff game because they both sucked that week. My RBs didn't suck, but hey weren't high caliber either. Remember when the weather turns nasty (weeks 15-17), teams run the ball!

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To me, I can get by with a Brees or Hasselbeck as my QB to pair with my two stud RBs.

I cannot get by with Brady as my QB with LenDale White and Selvin Young as my RBs.

I know these may be a little extreme examples, but RBs are the way to go. I will say this... Last season, a guy in one of my leagues had Brady and he didn't make the playoffs. The reason, his RBs were terrible. I had Carson Plamer and finished second (QBs score very highly in the league, as well) becasue I had solid RBs.

C'mon I think you can get a better RB in the second round than Selvin Young and Lendale White. You might even start a run on QB's in the 2nd round with Brady off the board

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I can echo these comments. I had Brady and Romo in a 2QB league and lost in the final playoff game because they both sucked that week. My RBs didn't suck, but hey weren't high caliber either. Remember when the weather turns nasty (weeks 15-17), teams run the ball!

Any player can have a bad week, including a RB that sits to stay fresh for the playoffs. You might be better off drafting all backup RB's and stockpile elite QB's and WR's. B)

If you take Brady #1, you take a RB in the second round for sure.

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C'mon I think you can get a better RB in the second round than Selvin Young and Lendale White. You might even start a run on QB's in the 2nd round with Brady off the board

Agreed. I said I was being a little extreme with my RB examples.

But seriously, the guy who wins in all of my leagues always has two stud RBs and a solid QB. I was in 5 leagues last year, and not one of the winners had Brady. I'm not saying that Brady is a stupid pick at one. You can make an argument for that, but I personally would not take him higher than 5 or so. In my eyes, Brady is a reach at one with LT2, Westbrook, Peterson, and Jackson on the board.

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Any player can have a bad week, including a RB that sits to stay fresh for the playoffs. You might be better off drafting all backup RB's and stockpile elite QB's and WR's. B)

If you take Brady #1, you take a RB in the second round for sure.

Okay, so you are obviously trying to create a stir in these forums, so I'll play along. So you take Brady #1 and a RB at #24(assuming a 12 team league), who do you expect to have there to pick as your RB1? Then with your next pick do you go RB or WR? Who do you expect to be there for your pick #s 48 and 49?

The point is with most of your peers probably going RB/WR or RB/RB in rounds 1 and 2,you are going to have to take chances on your RBs and WRs and hope for the best.

It kind of reminds me of your comments about "gambling" on Garrard or Anderson to "repeat", dontcha think?

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To piggyback from my "which starting 5 would you want" thread, this was my team picking from the 3 spot in a 10 teamer, taking Brady in the 1st, then going RB/WR/WR/RB

Team 2

QB Tom Brady

RB Ryan Grant

RB Jonathan Stewart

WR Marques Colston

WR Wes Welker

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To piggyback from my "which starting 5 would you want" thread, this was my team picking from the 3 spot in a 10 teamer, taking Brady in the 1st, then going RB/WR/WR/RB

Team 2

QB Tom Brady

RB Ryan Grant

RB Jonathan Stewart

WR Marques Colston

WR Wes Welker

I really wouldn't mind taking Brady if I knew I could grab a Stewart in the 5th round. That's good value.

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To piggyback from my "which starting 5 would you want" thread, this was my team picking from the 3 spot in a 10 teamer, taking Brady in the 1st, then going RB/WR/WR/RB

Team 2

QB Tom Brady

RB Ryan Grant

RB Jonathan Stewart

WR Marques Colston

WR Wes Welker

The point is your results come from mock drafts that occurred in June, when the NFL season doesn't start until September. Do you honestly expect to acheive similar results as the season nears? People participating in mocks right now are testing out strategies and seeing how they work out. I think we need to add the disclaimer " Actual results may vary" next to your Team 2 roster.

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Funny you should ask, it was today's article at the below site (cheap plug)

endzoneview, I'm curious about you ranking Addai #3. I know he is part of an explosive offense, but imo he takes himself out of far too many games for my liking, Rhodes and Hart are in Indy to steal carries and you can't count on Addai to still be playing come fantasy playoff time.

I'm interested to see your reasons behind his ranking. Thanks.

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Ha! Well, that's all I have to go on right now, isn't it?

Everything is going to change to be honest. 100% of these topics will be rubbish once the season nears.

For those of you who don't already realize, every mock results may vary. B)

By the way, it was a 10 teamer and I was picking in the 3 spot. JStews current overall rank on NFL.com is 53, 65th on ESPN, 68th on mockdraftcentral and he's 6.10 right now on fantasyfootballcalculator

The point is your results come from mock drafts that occurred in June, when the NFL season doesn't start until September. Do you honestly expect to acheive similar results as the season nears? People participating in mocks right now are testing out strategies and seeing how they work out. I think we need to add the disclaimer " Actual results may vary" next to your Team 2 roster.
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Umm, because usually when athletes set records one year they don't break them again the following year.

Heck, if you think he'll throw between 45 and 100 TD's again, by all means, take him #1

For the record, I have him ranked #6 after the BIG 5 (AP, LT, ADDAI, SJAX, and WESTY)

I agree with you here. There will be a drop off. I don't think it will be a huge drop off though. He went for 50 last year; no way he goes for 50 again. He's a great QB, but 50 is THE greatest single season for a QB EVER. Very unlikely to repeat that. I'd say somewhere between 35-40 and that is good enough for first round. However, I have no problem with him going #1 if you think he'll throw 50 again. I beleive his point totals last year were something insane like Drew Brees + Ryan Grant/Barber/MJD/that type of RB...that's pretty sick.

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Okay, so you are obviously trying to create a stir in these forums, so I'll play along. So you take Brady #1 and a RB at #24(assuming a 12 team league), who do you expect to have there to pick as your RB1? Then with your next pick do you go RB or WR? Who do you expect to be there for your pick #s 48 and 49?

The point is with most of your peers probably going RB/WR or RB/RB in rounds 1 and 2,you are going to have to take chances on your RBs and WRs and hope for the best.

It kind of reminds me of your comments about "gambling" on Garrard or Anderson to "repeat", dontcha think?

My RB1 (S-Jax) and RB2 (Jacobs) were hurt for most of the season last year. It was my QB tandem of Derek Anderson and Carson Palmer with my Wide Receivers and a lot of luck that made me win my league. Spot starting RB's like Grant , White, and Ward will keep you in the game most weeks.

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