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Jaylen Samuels 2019 Outlook


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Not that this news is any big surprise, but Jaylen Samuels sure seems to be the lowest priced handcuff with stand alone Flex value. Handcuff to a top 10 RB who has some durability concerns, he’s the clear #2 in the backfield, will be on the field even without injury to the starter, is talented/shown production in the NFL. What am I missing?

 

 

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This week: 20/120/2 & 7/25/0 I know 7 carries for 25 yards isn’t great but you can’t have it all.

All signs point to yes.

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With everyone healthy I could see him as a 2-4 carry guy with 3-5 receptions. 

 

Samuels 5-9 touches a game

Conner 17-21 touches a game 

 

This guys catch rate was 26/29. That’s pretty good. 

 

Its hard to predict this stuff. But I do wonder if week 17 of last year is some indication how they will be used moving forward. 

 

In PPR, points can come in bunches for this guy. Steelers going for 2 pt conversions is another sneaky way for points to accumulate.

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Starting to doubt he even has much flex play value, and instead is more of a handcuff.

With all those empty targets, the thought was they either funnel more to Vance or to Samuels. But based off tonight's game (granted it is just one game), they instead used Conner more in the passing game, and threw a bunch to the ancillary receivers with little success.

So I suppose Samuels is going to be handcuff this whole year, or you have to hope the modify the offense a bit to spread the ball to non-WR options. Seems like too much wishful thinking.

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4 minutes ago, brosephd said:

will conner last a whole season, and will i regret if i drop samuel and conner gets hurt later and burning a waiver 

Well, that’s the whole point of handcuffing, no? The flip side question to ask is, are you ok with holding a roster spot hostage with somebody who may amount to nothin should Conner remain healthy? Might you be able to use that spot for a Hollywood Brown, Malcolm Brown, etc. who you might actually be able to insert into your starting lineup at some point in the season?

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7 hours ago, brosephd said:

will conner last a whole season, and will i regret if i drop samuel and conner gets hurt later and burning a waiver 

 

Some data might suggest that handcuffing is not usually a successful strategy. Statistically speaking anyway. You just have to weigh the probability of a handcuff being useful versus using a roster spot for an actual useful player.

Handcuffing becomes more viable around halfway through the fantasy season. This is because by the time you reach Week 7-8, most of the breakout players are taken up in weeks 1-4, so the waiver wire is full of these handcuffs. So statistically speaking it makes more sense to not hold handcuffs in weeks 1-4 and instead use those roster spots to find more reliable fantasy options.

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8 hours ago, potatoetree said:

 

Some data might suggest that handcuffing is not usually a successful strategy. Statistically speaking anyway. You just have to weigh the probability of a handcuff being useful versus using a roster spot for an actual useful player.

Handcuffing becomes more viable around halfway through the fantasy season. This is because by the time you reach Week 7-8, most of the breakout players are taken up in weeks 1-4, so the waiver wire is full of these handcuffs. So statistically speaking it makes more sense to not hold handcuffs in weeks 1-4 and instead use those roster spots to find more reliable fantasy options.

 

thanks for this input, makes sense. weeks 1-6 are ones where you gotta be quick to get waiver wires who can boom or bust and have better potential to be studs then later waiver wire additions.

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8 hours ago, potatoetree said:

 

Some data might suggest that handcuffing is not usually a successful strategy. Statistically speaking anyway. You just have to weigh the probability of a handcuff being useful versus using a roster spot for an actual useful player.

Handcuffing becomes more viable around halfway through the fantasy season. This is because by the time you reach Week 7-8, most of the breakout players are taken up in weeks 1-4, so the waiver wire is full of these handcuffs. So statistically speaking it makes more sense to not hold handcuffs in weeks 1-4 and instead use those roster spots to find more reliable fantasy options.

 

I do like this strategy but there are a few handcuffs that you have to prep early for, like Malcolm Brown and Samuels. The players in front of them have an injury history and these guys have demonstrated close to starter level production while given the bellcow role. These handcuff could be viable at any given moment. But definitely have to weigh this with using the spot for a useful player.

Bench size goes a long way to determining this.

Edited by WaiverLooter
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2 hours ago, WaiverLooter said:

 

I do like this strategy but there are a few handcuffs that you have to prep early for, like Malcolm Brown and Samuels. The players in front of them have an injury history and these guys have demonstrated close to starter level production while given the bellcow role. These handcuff could be viable at any given moment. But definitely have to weigh this with using the spot for a useful player.

Bench size goes a long way to determining this.

Totally agree. Some leagues have huge benches! In those cases it's easier to hold a handcuff. And yes sometimes there's really high quality Handcuffs, again you just have to compare them against what is on your waiver wire. 

Malcolm Brown doesn't seem like a true handcuff anymore, rather he holds stand alone value. 
I think Samuels has less stand alone value in this current Pittsburgh offence

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