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Yordan Alvarez 2019 Outlook


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[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2019 season will be locked on 2019-11-28. Please finish any 2019 discussions here, and take any 2020 outlook discussions to the 2020 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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50 minutes ago, MSkibisky said:

- 22 years old vs 39 years old

- Possible OF elig

- Cruz's regression is inevitable, Yordan is just starting

 

 

 

Two of your three points are the same. He will have OF in yahoo only, which raises his value a tad just there.  I don't doubt Yordan is a better bet, but the price tag might be 100 spots less in snake and certainly  well into the double digits for auction. 

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Leads the league in stole hearts tho 😍😍😍

about the same as Tyler White winning the triple crown...

Yordan and Aristides yesterday  

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35 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Two of your three points are the same. He will have OF in yahoo only, which raises his value a tad just there.  I don't doubt Yordan is a better bet, but the price tag might be 100 spots less in snake and certainly  well into the double digits for auction. 

Not saying he may not be overvalued at all, just can see plenty of increasing why he should go many rounds before Cruz..

.. and now *waits for someone to bring up juiced ball reasoning*

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3 minutes ago, MSkibisky said:

Not saying he may not be overvalued at all, just can see plenty of increasing why he should go many rounds before Cruz..

.. and now *waits for someone to bring up juiced ball reasoning*

 

the ball is juiced.  its much easier to find a 35 homerun guy that doesnt steal than a 25 homerun guy who steals 15

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1 hour ago, MSkibisky said:

- 22 years old vs 39 years old

- Possible OF elig

- Cruz's regression is inevitable, Yordan is just starting

 

 

 

you are not concerned at all with his BABIP or HR/FB% or K% ????

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2 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

you didnt.  i was just asking a question.  you said hes "just starting".  although i agree with that, do you not believe he will regress at all?

I think there has to be regression. His 162gm avg is 55/164 for @#$^ sakes lol. 

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1 hour ago, MSkibisky said:

Not saying he may not be overvalued at all, just can see plenty of increasing why he should go many rounds before Cruz..

.. and now *waits for someone to bring up juiced ball reasoning*

 

If the season ended today and the new season started tomorrow and both guys were healthy , they’re projections would be similar. Assuming it’s DH only, I would certainly take Yordan first, but Cruz is quite similarly level player at this second. Of course Cruz may finally suck next year. That being said Cruz has basically earned profit or substantial profit for the past 8 years or so. 

 

In a 12 team snake where Yordan goes end of round 2 or early round 3 vs Cruz who probably goes in the 7-10 range, there’s not a question which one id rather have.

 

I think Yordan is an absolute stud and an elite hitter, but so is Cruz is just a steal every year. I don’t mind being the last one holding the poop bag on Cruz , because I’ve profited so many years with him and he goes in rounds where the bust rate is significant no matter who you draft. Go look at your 7-10 round picks this year from a 12 team league . You certainly didn’t go 4/4 on great picks . If you got 3 you did really well, 2 isn’t bad either . 

I think Yordan is great but doesn’t deserve to go THAT much ahead of Cruz, and he will. If he finishes strong and has a good postseason I think he might even push for a 1/2 turn pick in some leagues. 

 

Ironically enough, eventually Yordan will be truly Util only, he'll have an off year due to injury, and then probably be the next Nelson Cruz /David Ortiz steals in drafts for. 5-10 years.

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Don't know who Hinch is, but I own Yordan on multiple, one of which for a few years now.  In terms of a dynasty asset Yordan >>>>>> Cruz obviously. In Dynasty startups this offseason, he might be a first rounder.

 

Having been in some dynasty leagues for a number of years at this point, I realize how meaningless age is in redraft. People overvalue it and truly undervalue old guys while drafting younger guys above their value, like we saw with Vlad this year. Younger guys are great when they break out and become studs on your teams, but it's only a real help to you if you got them late in drafts or off the wire, like with Yordan/Alonso this year, Trout in 2012, etc. 

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47 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

I don’t mind being the last one holding the poop bag on Cruz , because I’ve profited so many years with him and he goes in rounds where the bust rate is significant no matter who you draft. Go look at your 7-10 round picks this year from a 12 team league . You certainly didn’t go 4/4 on great picks . If you got 3 you did really well, 2 isn’t bad either . 

 

Okay, I took the bait;

12T League 1: Carp (yuck), Villar, Brantley, Odor (yuck)  

12T League 2: Cruz, Andujar (ouch), Olson, Marquez 

12T League 3: Treinen (yuck), Chapman, Marquez, Moose 

 

Hitting on 50% sounds about right. 

 

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7 minutes ago, 80version said:

 

Okay, I took the bait;

12T League 1: Carp (yuck), Villar, Brantley, Odor (yuck)  

12T League 2: Cruz, Andujar (ouch), Olson, Marquez 

12T League 3: Treinen (yuck), Chapman, Marquez, Moose 

 

Hitting on 50% sounds about right. 

 

 

I use to really dig deep into my drafts when I only did one league way back when. There were years when I won and I noticed how many bad picks I made. I think a lot of people don't realize how much of a poop show the middle and second half of a fantasy baseball draft are because of how volatile baseball stats are compared to like basketball. The deeper the league, obviously the tougher.  But yeah, if I take Cruz at pick 100 and he finally sucks, oh well.  That bust rate shouldn't be much more/less than whoever else is available generally. It's getting the top 75ish  players outside of pick 200 or off the waiver wire that are the real difference makers. 

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26 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

Nolan goes super high without steals. I see Yordan as a great source for BA, HR, RBI, OBP, R....

 

plays in colorado and has done it for 5 years straight. also plays 3b which is usually relatively shallow position.

 

im still going back to alvarez having a 366 babip compared to arenados 302.  alvarez K% is 25% compared to Arenado 13%. Arenado 18% hr/fb compared to Yordan 34%

 

Alvarez screams regression to me.  i still think hes a stud, but i think youre nuts to take him in the 2nd or 3rd.  maybe im wrong but im seeing a lot of Hoskins/Bellinger 2nd year.  ill stand bymy 4th/5th round tag...which  means i prob wont own.  you might be able to get Aaron Judge in the 2nd or Stanton in the 3rd.  JD Mart in the 3rd etc.  ill take all of those over Yordan next year. Charlie blackmon in the 3rd/4th as well

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

If the season ended today and the new season started tomorrow and both guys were healthy , they’re projections would be similar. Assuming it’s DH only, I would certainly take Yordan first, but Cruz is quite similarly level player at this second. Of course Cruz may finally suck next year. That being said Cruz has basically earned profit or substantial profit for the past 8 years or so. 

 

 

 

I am on the exact opposite side of that spectrum.  I have passed on Cruz every year due to age.  NO WAY I can take him a this point and be left with the "poop" bag.

Back to Alvarez.  It is to the point where Alvarez is going to being overvalued.

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1 hour ago, jfazz23 said:

 

plays in colorado and has done it for 5 years straight. also plays 3b which is usually relatively shallow position.

 

im still going back to alvarez having a 366 babip compared to arenados 302.  alvarez K% is 25% compared to Arenado 13%. Arenado 18% hr/fb compared to Yordan 34%

 

Alvarez screams regression to me.  i still think hes a stud, but i think youre nuts to take him in the 2nd or 3rd.  maybe im wrong but im seeing a lot of Hoskins/Bellinger 2nd year.  ill stand bymy 4th/5th round tag...which  means i prob wont own.  you might be able to get Aaron Judge in the 2nd or Stanton in the 3rd.  JD Mart in the 3rd etc.  ill take all of those over Yordan next year. Charlie blackmon in the 3rd/4th as well

 

My point was, lack of steals isn't making me downgrade him a ton. I used Nolan as an example. I mean he gets downgraded some for lack of steals, but still a 1st rounder. I wasn't saying Yordan is Nolan. I think 3rd round isn't crazy for Yordan, 4th might be right depending on the league of course, 5th would be a good value and below that a great value. This guy is like what, 22?

 

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3 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

 

plays in colorado and has done it for 5 years straight. also plays 3b which is usually relatively shallow position.

 

im still going back to alvarez having a 366 babip compared to arenados 302.  alvarez K% is 25% compared to Arenado 13%. Arenado 18% hr/fb compared to Yordan 34%

 

Alvarez screams regression to me.  i still think hes a stud, but i think youre nuts to take him in the 2nd or 3rd.  maybe im wrong but im seeing a lot of Hoskins/Bellinger 2nd year.  ill stand bymy 4th/5th round tag...which  means i prob wont own.  you might be able to get Aaron Judge in the 2nd or Stanton in the 3rd.  JD Mart in the 3rd etc.  ill take all of those over Yordan next year. Charlie blackmon in the 3rd/4th as well

 

-Yordan's expected BABIP is .336 and HR/FB is 29.6% based on batted ball data.

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/yordan-alvarez-is-insane/

 

-As of today, Yordan has a 181 wRC+. That's the best hitter in baseball in the best lineup in baseball. Trout is second with a 179 wRC+.

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5 minutes ago, Light Tower Power said:

 

-Yordan's expected BABIP is .336 and HR/FB is 29.6% based on batted ball data.

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/yordan-alvarez-is-insane/

 

-As of today, Yordan has a 181 wRC+. That's the best hitter in baseball in the best lineup in baseball. Trout is second with a 179 wRC+.

 

i know.  im finding it very difficult to believe Yordan is better than Mike Trout.  not sure hes a 336 babip guy either with his speed

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16 minutes ago, lavaman said:

Trout is the best player on the planet. Just to set it straight.

 

But Yordan is well on his way to surpassing him within a couple of years.

 

where is that confused emoji option???

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13 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

where is that confused emoji option???

 Highest OPS by a rookie in Modern Era. (Minimum 300 PA's) I'll wait while you look it up.

(where is that 'scratching his head casual baseball fan' emoji option??)

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2 minutes ago, lavaman said:

 Highest OPS by a rookie in Modern Era. (Minimum 300 PA's) I'll wait while you look it up.

(where is that 'scratching his head casual baseball fan' emoji option??)

 

so he has a good 400 at bats and now hes better that Trout????

 

Image result for cage laugh gif

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