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Yordan Alvarez 2019 Outlook


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[Automated message: This outlook thread for the 2019 season will be locked on 2019-11-28. Please finish any 2019 discussions here, and take any 2020 outlook discussions to the 2020 outlook thread . If one does not exist, feel free to create one. Thanks!]

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14 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

Yordan has been EXPOSED this yankee series

 

im telling you again. do NOT take this guy in the first 2 rounds.  probably not 3rd round either

 

Regardless of whether anyone is taking him in those rounds, that’s a grand total of 6 games you’re talking about.

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Leads the league in stole hearts tho 😍😍😍

about the same as Tyler White winning the triple crown...

Yordan and Aristides yesterday  

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1 hour ago, exaulz said:

 

Regardless of whether anyone is taking him in those rounds, that’s a grand total of 6 games you’re talking about.

 

you think the league wasnt taking notes??

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He slashed 316/350.474 in the SEVEN game series prior.  On a scale of 1-10 on how concerned I am about Yordan sucking in the ALCS, I'm at a -20. 

35 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

you think the league wasnt taking notes??

 

Bellinger look exposed in the playoffs every year, especially last year too, and he backed it up with an MVP worthy year.  The thing about the playoffs is you're facing a lot better pitching to begin with. The Yankees have the nastiest pen in the league and have pretty decent-good starters too. Pitchers in the playoffs are giving it their all on a level they do not in the regular season.  Even in this upcoming series, he's going to face 3 top 15 starters in baseball for most of his PAs. I wouldn't expect amazing production out of him in the World Series, but who knows it's just one series.

 

I do think he's probably not going to be a .313 hitter like he was this year, there's certainly some natural regression coming, maybe a sophomore slump isn't out of the question, but he sure seems like a tremendous hitter regardless of what the last 6 games showed. 

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5 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

He slashed 316/350.474 in the SEVEN game series prior.  On a scale of 1-10 on how concerned I am about Yordan sucking in the ALCS, I'm at a -20. 

 

Bellinger look exposed in the playoffs every year, especially last year too, and he backed it up with an MVP worthy year.  The thing about the playoffs is you're facing a lot better pitching to begin with. The Yankees have the nastiest pen in the league and have pretty decent-good starters too. Pitchers in the playoffs are giving it their all on a level they do not in the regular season.  Even in this upcoming series, he's going to face 3 top 15 starters in baseball for most of his PAs. I wouldn't expect amazing production out of him in the World Series, but who knows it's just one series.

 

I do think he's probably not going to be a .313 hitter like he was this year, there's certainly some natural regression coming, maybe a sophomore slump isn't out of the question, but he sure seems like a tremendous hitter regardless of what the last 6 games showed. 

Bellinger had a "down" year after being exposed in the playoffs. He spent the off season working on his game and produced this year which was MVP worthy.

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2 hours ago, Low and Away said:

Bellinger had a "down" year after being exposed in the playoffs. He spent the off season working on his game and produced this year which was MVP worthy.

 

He's had three consecutive postseasons of being exposed, including this year after the offseason he worked to get better to produce his MVP year. He's been a 0 for the Dodgers in the playoffs every year. Being exposed in the playoffs isn't a thing for next year's fantasy value for the regular season. The sample size is beyond meaningless.

 

Both the Astros and Yankees batted under 200. 

 

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I'm basically ignoring whatever he does in the playoffs.  He was great during the season for a long enough period of time that it was obviously legit.  He'll likely be fine next season, which is all that matters for us.  He could have gone 0-60 with 55 K's in the playoffs and I'd still have the same opinion about Yordan going into next season.

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

Even though he was exposed last series he's OPSing over 1300 in the World Series. 

 

sarcasm detected.  beating up on Joe Ross, how impressive 😋.  granted he had a few singles games 1 and 2.  but hes had a total of like 10 at bats.  he played every game of the yanks series...

 

also had to sit the first 2 games in washington....which wont be a major problem except in interleague play.  but he will just be a UTL player in fantasy

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55 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

Small sample size though. First game he played in Washington, isn't it?  lol

 

Totally small sample size, need a full 7 game series to determine a player's value for the next season.. OPS at 1433 now!

 

53 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

sarcasm detected.  beating up on Joe Ross, how impressive 😋

 

Seems fine. Also wasn't bad in the first couple games with Max/Stras.

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6 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Totally small sample size, need a full 7 game series to determine a player's value for the next season.. OPS at 1433 now!

 

 

Seems fine. Also wasn't bad in the first couple games with Max/Stras.

 

Image result for laugh gif

 

i like your style brock lol

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On 10/19/2019 at 11:22 PM, jfazz23 said:

Yordan has been EXPOSED this yankee series

 

im telling you again. do NOT take this guy in the first 2 rounds.  probably not 3rd round either

Remember when Cody Bellinger was exposed during the 2017 World Series?

Good times :)

Yordan looks great. I wouldn't get too worked up regardless of how the W.S. or playoffs go. Not only are you facing the best of the best, but you're a rookie on one of the biggest stages in sports, and there's no telling how he might be pushing to do too much or what not.

That said, looks good thus far in the WS. I think the first round talk is silly, like extrapolating his #'s out to say he'd beat this guy or that guy... he doesn't have the track record, he has a nice walk rate but he K's a ton. I don't see how you take him over guys like Rendon, Arenado, Bellinger, Yelich, Acuna, BREGMAN, etc.

I'll be looking to draft Yordan about where I'll be looking at drafting Springer.

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On 10/28/2019 at 6:12 AM, sngehl01 said:

Remember when Cody Bellinger was exposed during the 2017 World Series?

Good times :)

Yordan looks great. I wouldn't get too worked up regardless of how the W.S. or playoffs go. Not only are you facing the best of the best, but you're a rookie on one of the biggest stages in sports, and there's no telling how he might be pushing to do too much or what not.

That said, looks good thus far in the WS. I think the first round talk is silly, like extrapolating his #'s out to say he'd beat this guy or that guy... he doesn't have the track record, he has a nice walk rate but he K's a ton. I don't see how you take him over guys like Rendon, Arenado, Bellinger, Yelich, Acuna, BREGMAN, etc.

I'll be looking to draft Yordan about where I'll be looking at drafting Springer.

Well, he did come back and have a disappointing 2018 season.  25/75 with an .814 ops.  But I agree with level of competition.  American League is littered with horrible staffs.  And I don’t think it’s going to get immensely better for many of the teams overnight into 2020.  

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2 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

Well, he did come back and have a disappointing 2018 season.  25/75 with an .814 ops.  But I agree with level of competition.  American League is littered with horrible staffs.  And I don’t think it’s going to get immensely better for many of the teams overnight into 2020.  

 

thanks.  people acting like i said yordan isnt good.  im just saying there is way too much talent to take him in the first 2 rounds.  maybe 3rd is fine.  i probably wont.  acuna turned out great, but guys like hoskins and bellinger had learning curves.

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On 10/28/2019 at 6:12 AM, sngehl01 said:

Remember when Cody Bellinger was exposed during the 2017 World Series?

Good times :)

 

 

This was mentioned earlier in the thread too.  It's also worth nothing Bellinger had a .083 BA in the 2018 World Series (exposed) had an MVP caliber season in 2019, and a terrible 2019 postseason.

I would not use the playoffs for anything to determine fantasy value for the following year. 

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3 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

This was mentioned earlier in the thread too.  It's also worth nothing Bellinger had a .083 BA in the 2018 World Series (exposed) had an MVP caliber season in 2019, and a terrible 2019 postseason.

I would not use the playoffs for anything to determine fantasy value for the following year. 

Yeah I didn't read all 27 pages. 

 

My point was that as well. The incredibly small sample is meaningless, regardless of the platform it comes on 

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13 hours ago, sngehl01 said:

Yeah I didn't read all 27 pages. 

 

My point was that as well. The incredibly small sample is meaningless, regardless of the platform it comes on 

Sure, but 68 PAs in the regular season gets over-hyped also if it's really good or bad if it's the most recent 68 PAs. Where people ignore the previous 300 PAs and instigate panic or hype. Which most member of the board have done before(If you think you haven't, you are probably lieing to yourself or you rarely post). Either as confirmation bias of a player "correcting his luck" or " I knew this player would get out his slump"

Having this discussion is beating a dead horse. "Why are human being vulnerable to being a prisoner of the moment."

Also this isn't black and white. It doesn't have a zero point zero correlation, it's just too small to note when we need to simplify things in order to understand them.

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On 10/30/2019 at 10:03 PM, sngehl01 said:

Yeah I didn't read all 27 pages. 

 

My point was that as well. The incredibly small sample is meaningless, regardless of the platform it comes on 

 

It was actually mentioned in the exact same page number, just a few posts above yours. Gotta at least read SOME posts when you take part in a message board...

IMO Alvarez is easily justifiable as a second rounder in keeper leagues (in the context of a 12 team league). In redrafts, he's probably more of a third or even fourth rounder. 

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4 minutes ago, OaksterDan said:

It was actually mentioned in the exact same page number, just a few posts above yours. Gotta at least read SOME posts when you take part in a message board...

IMO Alvarez is easily justifiable as a second rounder in keeper leagues (in the context of a 12 team league). In redrafts, he's probably more of a third or even fourth rounder. 

Actually, no, it wasn't. It was on the previous page, and posted over a week before I posted mine. I did read back the previous couple of days of comments.

Sorry to have so greatly offended you. May I offer a worthy sacrifice as penance for my sins?

 

I can see Alvarez in the second, but I think that's a big aggressive. He threw up some absolutely gaudy numbers. In roto/weekly leagues I like him a bit more than daily H2H just due to the fact he's going to be locked into UTIL to start the year (on ESPN, at least).

I love him in the third, especially the second half of it. As the shiny new toy, however, someone will be looking to pull the trigger (too) early.

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3 hours ago, sngehl01 said:

Actually, no, it wasn't. It was on the previous page, and posted over a week before I posted mine. I did read back the previous couple of days of comments.

Sorry to have so greatly offended you. May I offer a worthy sacrifice as penance for my sins?

 

I can see Alvarez in the second, but I think that's a big aggressive. He threw up some absolutely gaudy numbers. In roto/weekly leagues I like him a bit more than daily H2H just due to the fact he's going to be locked into UTIL to start the year (on ESPN, at least).

I love him in the third, especially the second half of it. As the shiny new toy, however, someone will be looking to pull the trigger (too) early.

This is where I am expecting him to go. Had he have OF elig, I would maybe think earlier, but 3rd sounds about right. 

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I sense an overhyped player here.  Util only (at least for a while), no speed and some concerns pitchers could adjust and expose weaknesses.  Sure would love to have him, but early-mid third where he is going... I like other options at that point. Acknowledging there is some big upside, there is also some risk. Median outcome is probably a Nelson Cruz type production, someone who will be available 5 rounds later. 

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27 minutes ago, bluefrogguy said:

I sense an overhyped player here.  Util only (at least for a while), no speed and some concerns pitchers could adjust and expose weaknesses.  Sure would love to have him, but early-mid third where he is going... I like other options at that point. Acknowledging there is some big upside, there is also some risk. Median outcome is probably a Nelson Cruz type production, someone who will be available 5 rounds later. 

Hey .. umm.. Nelson Cruz is 39 years old.

 

Yordan is like 12.

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1 minute ago, MSkibisky said:

Hey .. umm.. Nelson Cruz is 39 years old.

 

Yordan is like 12.

 

Cruz' production has yet to wane. Last year .311 41 HR/ 108 RBI.  That's continued strong production.  Obviously going to end at some point, but the bigger point is that power/ no speed DHs of any age have a ceiling in fantasy, especially in this day and age where you can get something similar later. 

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Cruz is great, but in a snake draft you can't just bypass good players because one old guy is going too cheap.  If one guy takes him before you, it's a moot point.  I do agree that Nelson Cruz is certainly more valuable.  Maybe we should start the 2020 threads already.

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